The NBA playoff picture is a total mess with 1 week left

The field of 20 teams is set in stone. But only a single seed is locked in. What a week we have ahead of us. First, let's recap the weekend.

Good morning. As with last week, we’ll approach this weekend review and look-ahead a little differently.

On the Terrace at Sèvres; Marie Bracquemond; 1880

Let’s basketball.

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The West Race for No. 1

1. Timberwolves (54-24): Loss to Suns (97-87), Win over Lakers (127-117)

2. Nuggets (54-24): Win over Hawks (142-110)

3. Thunder (53-25, 1 game back): Loss at Pacers (126-112), Win over Hornets (121-118)

The biggest story in the race for the East No. 1 seed is that the Thunder are still without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, who have been out since the Knicks game last week. They just narrowly avoided an unfortunately timed 4-game losing streak in Charlotte thanks to Isaiah Joe getting hot.

Jamal Murray, meanwhile, came back and played 21 minutes for the Nuggets on Saturday. Good sign.

Holding the Suns to 97 points should mean a win, but on Friday the Wolves were nightmarish in the paint (19/47, 40%). The lid came off on Sunday against the Lakers, and Naz Reid went nuts.

Minnesota has the tiebreaker over Denver — the season series will be decided on Wednesday, but the Nuggets can’t catch the Wolves in the second tiebreaker, divisional record. Minnesota should also maintain its tiebreaker over OKC as well — they could very well end up tied on the season series and tied on divisional record, but the Wolves have a stronger conference record right now. The Thunder have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Nuggets.

Remaining games for these teams:

• Wolves: Tuesday vs. Wizards, Wednesday at Nuggets, Friday vs. Hawks, Sunday vs. Suns

• Nuggets: Tuesday at Jazz, Wednesday vs. Wolves, Friday at Spurs, Sunday at Grizzlies

• Thunder: Tuesday vs. Kings, Wednesday vs. Spurs, Friday vs. Bucks, Sunday vs. Mavericks

It’s quite possibly going to come down to Wolves-Nuggets … and maybe Thunder-Kings or Thunder-Bucks.

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The East Race for No. 2

2. Bucks (47-31): Loss to Raptors (117-111), Loss to Knicks (122-109)

3. Magic (46-32, 1 game back): Loss to Hornets (124-115), Win over Bulls (113-98)

4. Knicks (46-32, 1 game back): Loss to Bulls (108-100), Win over Bucks (122-109)

5. Cavaliers (46-33, 1.5 games back): Loss to Lakers (116-97), Loss to Clippers (120-118)

The Bucks are suddenly in freefall. This swoon includes losses to the Wizards, Grizzlies and Raptors, and then a backbreaker to the Knicks, who are chasing their seed. They lost by 13 at home to New York with Giannis, Dame and Khris Middleton all playing. Doc Rivers is now two games below .500 since taking over (15-17). Nightmare!

But all of these teams love tripping themselves in trying to catch up to No. 2. Orlando biffed on Friday by watching the Hornets shoot the lights out. Are 17 minutes of Jonathan Isaac (DNP) really that important? The Magic did course-correct in a wire-to-wire win over Chicago on Sunday. But that loss to Charlotte might be a haunting one.

The Knicks got O.G. Anunoby back for their weekend games … but let Ayo Dosunmu and Javonte Green combine for 49 points on Friday. Welp. Mostly forgiven by Jalen Brunson ripping the Bucks to shreds.

The Cavaliers are in a tailspin. 5-11 over the past month. 3-8 in their last 11. Just wrapped a 1-4 roadtrip. Donovan Mitchell had 10 points in Saturday’s loss and didn’t play on Sunday the same week he declined comment on the odds of him signing an extension to remain in Cleveland. This season has been a very weird roller coaster.

The tiebreakers are a mess. We’ll revisit those later this week.

Remaining games:

• Bucks: Tuesday vs. Celtics, Wednesday vs. Magic (!), Friday at Thunder, Sunday at Magic (!)

• Magic: Tuesday at Rockets, Wednesday at Bucks (!), Friday at Sixers, Sunday vs. Bucks (!)

• Knicks: Tuesday at Bulls, Thursday at Celtics, Friday vs. Nets, Sunday vs. Bulls

• Cavaliers: Wednesday vs. Grizzlies, Friday vs. Pacers, Sunday vs. Hornets

I hesitate to complicate the situation further but … Indiana, currently desperately hanging on to No. 6, still has an outside shot at No. 2. We will monitor the situation.

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The West Play-in Escape

5. Mavericks (48-30): Win over Warriors (108-106), Win over Rockets (147-136 in OT)

6. Suns (46-32, 2 games back): Win over Timberwolves (97-87), Loss to Pelicans (113-95)

7. Pelicans (46-32, 2 games back): Loss to Spurs (111-109), Win over Suns (113-95)

8. Kings (45-33, 3 games back): Loss to Celtics (101-100), Win over Nets (107-77)

9. Lakers (45-34, 3.5 games back): Win over Cavaliers (116-97), Loss to Timberwolves (127-117)

I list the Mavericks here only to highlight why they are officially graduating out of this group of teams. They are basically now a lock to finish No. 5 and face the Clippers. Luka took Friday’s game against Golden State off, so P.J. Washington suddenly became an All-NBA talent. This includes getting the game-winner.

Luka did not take Sunday’s game against the Rockets off. 37-9-12. Kyrie added 48 points. Sheesh. But to get the win, the Mavericks needed to survive regulation. And to survive regulation, the Mavericks needed Dante freaking Exum.

Holy smokes.

No West team has close to the momentum and confidence of Dallas right now, with the possible exception of Denver.

This is now a 4-team race for one spot. All four teams in the chase smacked their foreheads on a doorway this weekend. Our dear Kings went into Boston, fell behind big, rallied, fell behind again, rallied as Joe Mazzulla sat his starters for the fourth quarter with little left to play for … and the Kings fell an Xavier Tillman game-winner short of victory.

Oof. You lock in on defense for so long … and the ball bounces away.

The Pels. The Pels! You’re losing to the Spurs, folks? Even without both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, you can’t be doing that if you’re seeking a playoff appearance. Here’s Victor Wembanyama erasing Herb Jones’ game-winning attempt.

If the play is “Herb Jones tries to get Victor Wembanyama to switch onto him for a drive to the basket,” you have to call a timeout and consult a psychic instead.

But then the Pels. The Pels! They beat the Suns on Sunday in one of the more important games of the stretch run. Zion Williamson was the best player on the court in a game that involved Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

Devin Booker got spicy with yet another opponent. Book … might be the common denominator here, whether that’s through his own actions or whether people just like to try him.

The affection with which Joel Myers calls an instigating Jose Alvarado “that little guy from New York” is lovely.

The Suns! LOL. Beating the elite defensive Timberwolves as described above … and then getting bottled by the solid defensive Pelicans. If Harvey Dent were a basketball team.

The Lakers stomped the Cavaliers on Saturday — c’mon, everyone hit the Cavs with a stick as they walk by, don’t be shy — and then left LeBron at home with flu-like symptoms on Sunday. Anthony Davis left the game with a busted face. Bummer. L.A. was actually in 8th place for solid 24 hours, but is back in its rightful ninth seed.

The tiebreakers are a mess. Again, Dallas has graduated. Here’s how the other teams have left.

• Suns: Tuesday vs. Clippers, Wednesday at Clippers, Friday at Kings (!), Sunday at Timberwolves (sheeesh what a schedule)

• Pelicans: Tuesday at Blazers, Thursday at Kings (!), Friday at Warriors, Sunday vs. Lakers (!)

• Kings: Tuesday at Thunder, Thursday vs. Pelicans (!), Friday vs. Suns (!), Sunday vs. Blazers (it would be the most 2023-24 Sacramento Kings thing possible to start the week 3-0 and be in position to win the No. 6 seed and then lose to Portland — I’m not speaking it into the world, it already exists in the ether and I am simply acknowledging it, don’t blame me, blame the cosmos and also the Kings)

• Lakers: Tuesday vs. Warriors, Friday at Grizzlies, Sunday at Pelicans (!)

For what it’s worth, the Warriors can definitely move ahead of some of these teams but can’t get to No. 6 without a perfect storm of nonsense. So they are not really in the race but do have stuff to play for, like home court advantage in the 9-10 play-in.

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The East Play-in Escape

6. Pacers (45-34): Win over Thunder (126-112), Win over Heat (117-115)

7. Sixers (44-35, 1 game back): Win over Grizzlies (116-96), Win over Spurs (133-126 in 2OT)

8. Heat (43-35, 1.5 games back): Win over Rockets (119-104), Loss to Pacers (117-115)

Indiana had a very good weekend, helped by fortune with the Thunder’s injuries and then helped by themselves against Miami. T.J. McConnell saved the day (22 points on 11/14 shooting off the bench) and may have ruined the Sixers’ season.

Miami trailed nearly the whole game and by as many as 22 points. They rallied to come back and … fell just short. Is this a metaphor for their season? You won’t hear me saying that!

In any case, enormous win for Indiana.

Meanwhile, the Sixers haven’t lost since Joel Embiid came back. He had 30-12 in less than 23 minutes against Memphis on Saturday. That sound you hear is Doc Rivers getting sick in his mouth.

Embiid rested on a back-to-back Sunday against the team he hung 70 on back in January. Tyrese Maxey went ahead and dropped 52 in honor of the Big Fella. (And, uh, to get Philly the win.)

That is three 50-point games for Maxey … this season.

Tiebreakers! Indiana has the tiebreaker over both teams. Miami has the tiebreaker against Philly unless something weird happens. The Pacers are in very good position here. Philadelphia’s best bet might be this race merging with the Race for No. 2, which would involve the Cavaliers dipping all the way down to the play-in race, which is an absolute nightmare for Northeast Ohio. We will monitor the situation.

The remaining schedules:

• Pacers: Tuesday at Raptors, Friday at Cavaliers, Sunday vs. Hawks

• Sixers: Tuesday vs. Pistons, Friday vs. Magic, Sunday vs. Nets

• Heat: Tuesday at Hawks, Wednesday vs. Mavericks, Friday vs. Raptors, Sunday vs. Raptors

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Interesting Things That Happened To Other Teams

First, the Grit ‘n Grind Grizzlies reunited for Marc Gasol’s well-deserved jersey retirement ceremony. You can watch the full thing here. The 5-minute tribute video is narrated by Project Pat, of course. (Memphis, the truest American city.) It’s a reminder of just how wild Gasol’s basketball life story is.

Second, Victor Wembanyama has unlocked the Curry look-away three.

Third, Paul George is a bad, bad man.

The Clippers will be the fourth seed. We will monitor the situation.

And finally, a Russian nesting doll of taunting. Dillon Brooks is called for a foul, Luka celebrates … and getting called for a technical, leading Brooks to celebrate.

Brooks’ celebration is not deemed worthy of sanction. This is basketball.

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This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things

I’ve written in the past about why “Walking the Dog” didn’t need to be legislated out of the game because it has an easy solution: just send a defender full court to threaten to take the ball.

There has been an evolution in the practice.

That’ll be the end of that. The NBA will likely adjust the rules so that the clock starts on the inbound after this season. No skin off of my teeth. Someone always takes it too far!

Before that can happen, you wonder if we’ll get an illegal screen call or something of that ilk if this happens again? What LeBron is doing definitely isn’t legal screening action, is it?

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Schedule

No NBA games are scheduled for Monday. It’s funny that the NBA avoids competing with the Men’s Final Four when … the Women’s Final Four is a significantly bigger T.V. draw these days.

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Be excellent to each other.