13 fearless predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season
13 fearless predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season
PLUS: The Liberty win a controversial championship and lots of links.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
Consulting the Oracle; John William Waterhouse; 1884
First Thing’s First
Congratulations to the New York Liberty for winning their first championship, after signing Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot to join Sabrina Ionescu and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. In Game 5 on Sunday, the Libs got the benefit of an absolutely wild call in the closing seconds to allow Breanna Stewart to tie the game from the line. Still: the Liberty punked the Aces en route to the Finals, and had some star show-out performances to get the ring over the course of an epic series.
The Minnesota Lynx, one of the best-built teams in recent memory, came so damn close … but missed some bunnies and saw their offense grind down late. The fouls, though. The fouls!
Take it away, Cheryl Reeve.
“That s— was stolen from us.” Damn. And then closing it down with a “congrats on your first” to the Liberty just before mentioning that the Lynx were on the verge of winning their fifth. Real LeBron in 2011 vibes.
In any case, that series was freaking insane.
And Now: NBA Predictions
As always, my philosophy with these is that what is the point of making super safe predictions? Live a little!
There will be a three-way race for the No. 1 seed in the West this season: the Phoenix Suns, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Mavericks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Kings will be in pursuit; I think (tragically) the Kings end up No. 7 in the play-in, joined by the Lakers, Pelicans and Rockets. The Warriors, Clippers and Spurs end up outside with the Jazz and Blazers.
I’m going to take the Suns coming out of the conference. Kevin Durant is still just unbelievably good. Devin Booker has been here before. There is a mini-rivalry with the Nuggets going. I’d love to pick the Grizzlies but they have historically underperformed in the postseason with this core. The Mavericks are probably my second pick for West champs — I still struggle to imagine these Thunder beating them in a series.
I maintain my belief in the fact that the Celtics remain the class of the East and the next seven teams are some level of interchangeable depending on injuries and fit. (Those next seven: Sixers, Knicks, Bucks, Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers, Heat, in basically that order.) I think the Celtics make it back to the Finals … unless Giannis Antetokounmpo carries the Bucks over them, which I think is totally plausible. I just wish I had more trust in the rest of the Bucks to help Giannis and Damian Lillard get there.
Suns over Celtics in six. A first championship ever for Phoenix. (I already regret this pick!)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant and Jayson Tatum round out the top five. The SGA backlash picks up steam, with Bucks fans and Celtics fans joining the bandwagon.
Donovan Clingan, Rookie of the Year. The Blazers will be weird and mostly bad but take down some giants randomly throughout the season. Deandre Ayton ends up in New Orleans with Brandon Ingram getting shipped to Miami. Jerami Grant ends up in Los Angeles. (Which team? I don’t know!) Clarity of the future of a Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons pecking order remains cloudy.
The Brooklyn Nets end up with the worst record in the league, but the Utah Jazz get the No. 1 pick in the draft, because of course. Cooper Flagg to SLC. The Wizards and Blazers finish second and third worst, followed by the Hornets, Jazz, Spurs and Clippers.
James Harden averages 28-12 and doesn’t make All-NBA because the Clippers won 34 games. I spend a whole column comparing Harden’s arc to that of Trae Young with a more dedicated GM.
The Pistons and Raptors make a play for the play-in in the East but fall short. The Bulls and Hawks play the 9-10 game, as is their birthright. We all lose. Trae Young trade chatter reaches peak volume. He ends up in Orlando next summer.
TIME TO TALK ABOUT THE KINGS. Malik Monk wins Sixth Man of the Year over Naz Reid and Grayson Allen. DeMar DeRozan fits in beautifully, but the team is in a dogfight every night in the West. They end up as one of the best seven seeds ever. I reluctantly turn against the play-in tournament and refer to it as “a scourge designed to create manufactured profit-seeking at the expense of meritocracy” and “an abomination.”
The Knicks are really, really good but can’t get past the Celtics. The Wolves are really, really good but can’t get past the Mavericks. I and others convince ourselves that the Cavaliers can make a deep run, and much to our chagrin, they do not because the best teams are just a little better.
ESPN does not lose any additional game analysts to NBA head coaching jobs.
The NBA on TNT farewell tour goes entirely off the rails … by February. Charles Barkley starts attacking Adam Silver for carrying more about money than tradition. Rumors immediately tie Barkley and Kenny Smith to Amazon.
Let’s hear your predictions!
Links and a Few Final Preseason Clips
Teams made a ton of roster moves over the weekend. The only one you need to know: Yuki Kawamura earned a two-way contract. I need that Kawamura Memphis Hustle jersey.
Donovan Clingan got a preseason game in. 14-20-4-4 in 24 minutes. Sheesh.
This story in The Athletic by Jason Quick telling the tale of a gambling addict in Arizona is heart-rending. The main character has, by his own accounts, a great life … until legalized sports gambling and incessant marketing of such ruins him. I wish him luck on the path back. And for those who would say this is but a single negative story, and most casual sports gamblers don’t end up in these situations: please make sure you get to the part where reps from Gamblers Anonymous talk about the increase in services needed and the teenaged kids showing up to meetings.
(I’m not trying to be self-aggrandizing or moralistic or anything. But you may have noticed that I’m not even doing win total over/unders commentary in the newsletter at this point. Every ad read on a broadcast, every podcast segment focused on betting, every mention of the word parlay makes me a little sick. I’m not judging. I’m not judgmental. I’m just all the way out.)
with a bevy of extension talk updates.A great piece from
on how listicle culture has shifted to the highbrow. on the title chances of the Sixers.Enjoy or don’t this New York Post “well, actually” piece about NBA owners — who have seen their own franchise values rise exponentially in the past two decades — waiting to see some profit from the WNBA. What goes stunningly unmentioned in the piece is that James Dolan appears to be on a warpath against Adam Silver for weird reasons.
with a compelling, simple case for the Suns plus a Composite Top 100 using six existing top 100s.You were hoping that Cleveland could have a relatively injury-free season after what they went through last year. Alas, Max Strus will miss six weeks with an ankle sprain.
on the first look at top draft prospects Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey.This does not seem entirely necessary in the preseason.
Listening to Lakers rookie Quincy Olivari talk about meeting his childhood idol Steph Curry is really cool. Olivari ended up with a two-way contract.
Alright, there goes the first day of Free Week. Like it? Subscribe!
Be excellent to each other.
I'm happy to judge: gambling is objectively stupid and those who peddle it are predatory and exploitative. As a society we need to be making it harder to make ruinous choices, not easier. But capitalists will gladly goad you over the edge into the abyss, as long as they can collect on the way. Disgusting.
Love the predictions, and very much appreciate the exclusion of gambling content in your work!