Zion, MPJ and the rookie max extension

We've been so caught up in whether Williamson would deny an extension that we didn't think to ask whether the Pelicans should offer it.

Good morning.

Pyrrhus Shows His Elephant to Fabritius, Ferdinand Bol, 1656

If the training camp announcement that Zion Williamson had offseason foot surgery was a one-alarm fire, and Zion not being ready to debut at the start of the regular season as initially indicated was a two-alarm fire, and Zion suffering enough healing setbacks to have not participated in five-on-five action by Thanksgiving was a three-alarm fire, and the team announcing yet another setback in early December as he seemed to be approaching a return to the court was a four-alarm fire … what’s this now?

Williamson has suffered yet another setback. Here’s the full Pelicans statement from Saturday:

“After experiencing persistent soreness in his right foot, Zion Williamson underwent medical imaging which showed a regression in the bone healing of his fifth metatarsal. As a result, the volume and intensity of his training will be reduced for an extended period to help allow for further bone healing. Additional updates will be provided as warranted.”

As Andrew Lopez notes, Zion has now missed more NBA games (87) than he has played (85). No one has sources inside Zion’s foot, so no one knows whether Williamson will heal enough to play at all this season. It’s not looking great, and the Pelicans are already deep in a hole with the worst record in the West at 8-21. New Orleans has three more losses than a team that lost a game by 73 points and three more losses than a team that has already had a 17-game losing streak this season. Season’s over. Season’s been over.

The question is what the Pelicans do this summer.

The roster actually doesn’t have many offseason questions, barring a roster reboot. Tomas Satoransky is the only free agent of note. Based on the way things are currently going, the Pelicans will retain their own lottery pick (protected top-14 in the Devonte’ Graham deal) but will lose the Lakers’ pick to Memphis (protected top-10 in the Jonas Valanciunas deal).

Looking beyond 2022-23 roster decisions, one presumes Willie Green will get another shot with the team. I’m not as convinced that David Griffin will be retained as general manager after the string of misfortune and self-inflicted mistakes strewn about over the past year or so. And of course a new GM could want to make some significant roster changes.

All that said, clearly the No. 1 biggest question facing the Pelicans is whether to extend Zion a max-level rookie extension.

If not for the fact that we’re in December and it’s starting to look like Zion might not play this season, the Williamson early extension would be a no-brainer. When healthy, Zion is an All-NBA caliber talent — I thought he should have made All-NBA last season — and a foundational superstar. This is especially the case for a franchise that historically has trouble landing stars in free agency. It’s doubly the case when the young star in question is personable and highly marketable, as Zion has been.

Even injury-prone young stars tend to get early extensions. Joel Embiid received a designated player extension in the 2017 offseason. He had played exactly 31 games in his NBA career to that point. To be fair, that was an incredible 31 games in the 2016-17 season, and Embiid was on the upswing after sitting his first two seasons. Embiid finished third in 2016-17 Rookie of the Year voting off of 800 minutes of action! Even then, the max extension before his fourth season was seen as an enormous risk. It was so much of a risk that Philadelphia crafted a clause allowing them to void the deal if Embiid missed too many games. I wrote about it back in 2017, and what player it reminded me of: not Greg Oden, but Brandon Roy.

The Pelicans could offer Zion a Embiidian extension with protections for the team. But they could also just not offer Zion a deal right now. If no extension is reached this summer, Williamson will become a restricted free agent in 2023. He would have the option of signing with another team, but the Pelicans would be able to match any offer sheet signed by Zion to retain his services. Williamson would also have the option of signing a one-year, $17.6 million qualifying offer for the 2023-24 season and becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2024. This seems less likely given the current injury situation.

Embiid is the new go-to example of when you extend the contract, doing what you can to protect the team long-term but betting on talent. It’s been a huge success for the Sixers. But there’s an even more current example of how it can go wrong — you don’t need to look back at Oden and Roy. Consider Michael Porter Jr., who signed an early max extension with the Nuggets last summer without apparent Embiid-style protections … and will not play another game this season due to back surgery.

MPJ sat his entire rookie season due to back issues, then had an interesting rookie season and a thrilling 2020-21. In all fairness to Denver, MPJ looked like a star on the rise, a cornerstone of a contender with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. So Denver inked him to a max extension instead of deferring a year to give him that contract as a restricted free agent. Almost instantly, that decision came back to bite the Nuggets.

Had Denver waited, they’d still be in a tough position this summer because you don’t want to create bad blood with a good young player whose rights you have some control over, and you don’t want to risk a rising star take a QO. But chances are they could have locked MPJ into a contract at 20% of the cap (starting at $23 million or so) instead of 25% ($29 million). Or, with more knowledge of how recurring MPJ’s back issues would be, they could have negotiated in some Embiidian protections.

Zion > > > MPJ. Don’t get me wrong there. And in the past, for a team in New Orleans’ position, I would always argue that you pay the talent, squirrel away whatever saving graces you can manage, and hope for the best. I’m not so sure any more. I’m not so sure with Zion. The Pelicans will have a better read on the long-term prognosis for Zion: his foot, his ability to remain in basketball shape in the offseason and the likelihood he’d risk a hundred million dollars on a qualifying offer if he feels offended by the lack of a max extension. But it should absolutely be an open question now.

All this time, we’ve been wondering if Zion would decline the Pelicans’ extension offer to keep the pressure up and maybe hit free agency earlier than any prior young superstar. Now we’re wondering if the Pelicans should even offer the extension. It’s a cruel world.

Scores

Friday

Kings 123, Hornets 124 — Oh, Kings. With an opportunity to string together another win before a brutal back-to-back in Cleveland, with the Hornets short-handed …

Unf—kangzbelievable.

Mavericks 93, Pacers 106 — Mavs fans, y’all want to talk about it?

Nets 113, Hawks 105 — This would be a fun playoff series.

Knicks 87, Raptors 90 — Toronto led by 7 with 3:40 left, the Knicks rallied to grab a 1-point lead and this happened.

Toronto Raptors @Raptors

🤟🏽 BANG BANG 🤟🏽

The Knicks couldn’t recover. Gary Trent Jr. had a helluva game amid a defensive battle and Scottie Barnes ended up with 15 rebounds, including that offensive board leading to the go-ahead shot. By the end of the weekend, the Raptors are a half-game ahead of the Knicks in the standings. Both are outside the play-in.

Bucks 123, Rockets 114 — The dream of Houston following their 15-game losing streak with a 15-game winning streak is over. A pity. 41 for Giannis, who became the Bucks’ all-time leader in blocks. He just turned 27 years old!

Cavaliers 123, Timberwolves 106

Pistons 93, Pelicans 109 — Pistons are in a bad way right now, 12 straight losses coming out of the weekend. Cade Cunningham has looked better over the last month than in his first few weeks but there’s not a lot working here. And now Jerami Grant is out six weeks with a thumb injury.

Lakers 116, Thunder 95 — Hey, L.A. can beat the Thunder!

Celtics 90, Suns 111 — I wouldn’t know personally, but I imagine there are few worse feelings than being on the East Coast, staying up late to watch your East Coast team get shellacked in the late game out West. Brutal. Especially when it’s JaVale McGee dropping a 21-15 on you.