Yes, low-seed West teams should aim for No. 6

This isn't rocket science. The Kings are largely untested; the Suns have Kevin Durant. Plus, if you think you have a better shot against the Grizzlies than the Suns, the 7th seed might not be so bad.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Portrait of Manuel Godoy; Francisco Goya; 1801

Look, my latent affinity for the Sacramento Kings has grown over the course of the season. I believed said affinity to be completely eradicated; turns out it was in remission but is starting to metastasize again. I hope the Kings win some playoff games, maybe even 16 of them.

But I’m not mad: of course they are an underdog in the Western Conference bracket despite having had the third best record for months and months. Of course all these teams in the lower half of the Western Conference bracket should try to angle themselves into the No. 6 seed so that they can face the Kings in the first round instead of the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have Kevin Durant. The other Suns not named Kevin Durant? Most of them were in the NBA Finals two seasons ago and racked up the best record in the conference one season ago. They lost two key players from that team in the trade for Durant and one of the main protagonists from the Finals team is showing his age a bit too vividly. But come on! The Phoenix Suns are terrifying. No one wants to face them.

The Kings are quite good. Their offense is like a Bunsen burner running so hot that you can’t easily see the height of the flame. If you aren’t careful, that thing will burn your face off. Since an epic post-All-Star sprint to cinch up a top seed, they have lost commitment a little with spurts of accountability mixed in to get certain achievements unlocked. You can tell watching recent games when Mike Brown chewed them out and when he didn’t. One presumes the team will not need that level of motivation in the playoffs.

But that team does not have Kevin Durant. No one on that team has been to the NBA Finals in quite a while. Not since 2016, in fact, when Matthew Dellavedova’s Cavaliers triumphed over Harrison Barnes’ Warriors!

Of course the Clippers, Lakers and Warriors should want the No. 6 and do what they can to land there. It’s a risky gambit because there is the unattractive No. 5 seed (and a date with the team that has Kevin Durant) and the attractive No. 6 seed (facing the Kings) BUT ALSO the deeply unattractive No. 7 seed.

That’s a real question: is the No. 7 seed more attractive than the No. 5 seed?

Here’s the case that the No. 5 seed is better than the No. 7:

• A week off between the end of the regular season and the playoffs

• No chance at elimination before the playoffs start

Here’s the case that the No. 7 seed is better than the No. 5:

• No chance at facing Kevin Durant until the Western Conference Finals

Let’s put some math on it. Let’s say you’re one of these three teams — Warriors, Clippers and Lakers — and you think the Suns would be 70-30 favorites over you, but you’d be 55-45 favorites over the Kings, 70-30 favorites over the No. 8 seed (Pelicans or Wolves), 70-30 favorites over the winner of the 9-10 play-in, 45-55 underdogs to the Grizzlies and 40-60 underdogs to the Nuggets. Let’s assume all that, and that odds are even for each of the Lakers, Clippers and Warriors. They aren’t, but let’s assume. Here’s how those probabilities to make it to the second round shake out.

• No. 5 seed: 30% probability of making the second round

• No. 6 seed: 55% probability of making the second round

• No. 7 or 8 seed: 39% probability of making the second round (31% probability of getting No. 7 and beating Memphis, 8% probability of getting No. 8 and beating Denver — but also a 9% probability of missing the playoffs entirely via double play-in elimination)

If that’s how you see your chances against all these teams, playing for No. 6 is worth the risk of falling to No. 7 in the aggregate. Notably, if you finish the regular season at No. 7, you are guaranteed attendance revenue for at least two postseason home games: either two home play-in games or one home play-in games and at least two first round home playoff games.

There’s also the matter of The Basketball Gods. They abide by the FAFO Commandment; it would be purely within the historical record of The Basketball Gods to smite a team that aims for No. 6 with a thorough, psyche-destroying beatdown at the hands of the Kings. Every neutral fan in the nation would root for this outcome; if a team successfully shenanigans their way into the No. 6 seed, they become international villains. There’s no avoiding it. So stick that in your formula, too.

That’s why, I believe, the Kings and their fandom should be sanguine about the situation. LET THEM commit some tomfoolery to draw you in the first round. LET THEM find out.

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Scores

Warning: tweets are not embedding on Substack this morning, so where I would normally embed a highlight in some cases I have linked it. I tried to use YouTube where possible instead.

Nets 123, Pistons 108 — Brooklyn is down to a magic number of one to clinch the No. 6 seed. A Miami loss to the Sixers on Thursday would do it. Otherwise, Brooklyn has two more chances to do it themselves.

I made a chart to show Miami’s failure to catch the Nets in the standings since Kevin Durant’s injury at the midway mark of the season and then the trades that followed.

You see that the Cavaliers quickly took advantage of the disruptions and took control of the No. 4 seed. The Knicks were slower to catch Brooklyn but did so around the 60-game mark and created gap over the past 10 games. Miami flirted with the No. 6 here and there but just have not been able to get on the upward trajectory to intersect with Brooklyn’s slow fade.

It’s a mystery but I wonder if the Heat would have caught Brooklyn if the Nets had stopped at trading Kyrie yet dealt with Durant’s injuries without having Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie in town. It could be that the Durant trade ruined Miami’s hope of getting into the playoffs! More seriously, Miami’s consistent inconsistency has done that.

Knicks 138, Pacers 129 — The Knicks are choosing rest, at least for now. Immanuel Quickley gets 39 points in the start, which ironically again helps his case for Sixth Man of the Year.

This is a great little fast break.

Quickley, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes become the first NBA trio to each score 30 points with five made threes in a game … ever. Now hold that thought.

Wizards 116, Hawks 134 — The East play-in is just about locked in: Heat vs. Hawks in Miami for the 7th seed and a date with the Celtics, Raptors vs. Bulls in Toronto for the chance to face the loser of the first game for the 8th seed and a date with the Bucks.

I think it’s fair to say that Trae Young has disappointed this season. But he’s still capable of plays like this. Unreal.

Raptors 93, Celtics 97

Bulls 92, Bucks 105

Grizzlies 131, Pelicans 138 (OT) — New Orleans is up by six with 11 seconds to go in regulation. On tap for a HUGE win in the playoff/play-in race.

And then what happened, Zillz?

Truly incredible. The Pelicans still won in overtime, but the psychic damage is done.

Meanwhile, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III and C.J. McCollum become the second trio in NBA history to each score 30 points and hit five threes … joining IQ, Obi and Grimes from earlier in the evening. Weird!

Kings 119, Mavericks 123 — Disappointing loss for the Kings, who have nothing more to play for but apparently wanted to push the Mavericks over the cliff. No dice: Kyrie Irving hit some big shots down the stretch and the Kings committed too many turnovers late.

Say this for the Mavericks: they are playing hard on both ends right now. I think they were legitimately and thoroughly embarrassed by the Hornets losses. They are still short complementary talent, so they are still going to lose a lot of the time. But the effort is there.

Lakers 118, Clippers 125 — The Lakers simply cannot beat the Clippers. It’s science.

A hugely consequential game, as everyone has been saying all week. The Clippers are now the team in the Clips-Warriors-Lakers grouping that controls its own destiny. Two wins and they claim No. 5 thanks to tiebreakers over the Warriors and Lakers and a better record than the Pelicans and Wolves. The Clips face the Blazers on Saturday and the Suns on Sunday.

Of course, if the Clippers want to drop to No. 6, they can try to lose that game Sunday. One presumes Phoenix will not have strong interest in winning, and in fact may want to lose to get the Clips instead of the Warriors in the first round, depending on whether we have an update on Paul George by then.

Of course of course, the Clips can do a little bit of shenanigans here, can’t they? If they want Phoenix to not really prefer the Clippers, they can leak that PG-13 is making progress and will be available for Game 1 of the first round next weekend. Then maybe the Suns shrug at their options and don’t go out of their way to avoid the Warriors, letting the Clips slide into No. 6.

Of course of course of course, one of these three teams will likely be No. 7, which in the intro essay we described is not really all that better than No. 5 in the first place.

The Clippers’ best shot at No. 6 is to split their remaining games. The Lakers’ best shot at No. 6 is to win both remaining games. The Warriors’ best shot at No. 6 is to split their remaining games. The Warriors’ next game: at Sacramento on Friday. SHENANIGANS ALERT!

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Schedule

All times Eastern.

Cavaliers at Magic, 7
Heat at Sixers, 7:30, TNT
Blazers at Spurs, 8
Thunder at Jazz, 9
Nuggets at Suns, 10, TNT

Be excellent to each other.