Would you draft Chet Holmgren?

The potential is undeniable. But it feels like the risk is, too.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Chet Holmgren, one of the players that most draftniks have in the mix to become the No. 1 pick overall in the NBA Draft this June, had a big game to start Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament run.

Of course, Georgia State isn’t the best marker of Holmgren’s NBA potential. But Chet has been doing this all season. Here’s a good Hoop Intellect video on what Chet brings to the table.

Holmgren’s clear most attractive skill is rim protection, but defense overall seems like an area where he could excel at the NBA level. On offense, he’s pretty fluid but isn’t a stretch shooter at this point and he’s not a Jokician passer. You’re not going to post him up because, well, look at him and look at the state of the post game (non-Jokic and Embiid division) in the NBA. Until Holmgren is a reliable mid-range or better shooter, all of his offense is probably coming from rim dives, transition and putbacks.

So, the upside is Rudy Gobert with better offensive potential. That’s a pretty high upside: Gobert could be on the precipice of winning his fourth NBA Defensive Player of the Year trophy before age 30. He was the No. 27 pick in 2013. If you ran that draft back again with hindsight, Gobert would go No. 2 behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. Gobert, though, is a touch taller with a bigger wingspan and visibly looked stronger back in his draft prospect days than Holmgren does now. Here’s tape from Gobert at Eurocamp 2012, when he was age 19, playing professionally in France and a year away from the draft.

Even at that stage, Gobert looked more powerful.

So then we get to the obvious downside risk for Holmgren: can he develop NBA strength?