Why not Scoot?

The Hornets at No. 2 are reportedly favoring Brandon Miller. The Blazers are rumored to be deciding between Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson. Just draft him and let him shine!

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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All the intrigue about the 2023 NBA Draft right now seems to center around Scoot Henderson.

Scoot has been the presumptive No. 2 pick in the NBA Draft since Victor Wembanyama became the overwhelmingly obvious choice for the No. 1 pick. This was in place well before Big Vic conquered America with Mets 92’s trip to Las Vegas to play against Scoot’s Ignite during exhibition season last fall. Scoot is a player that would have been the overwhelming favorite for No. 1 overall if not for Wembanyama. The Spurs, picking at No. 1, need a top-flight lead ballhandler, too. Scoot would have been perfect for them. Wembanyama is a potential epochal cornerstone. Scoot would have made them very, very happy as well.

But Big Vic is there and will obviously go No. 1. In a twist of intrigue, the Charlotte Hornets won the No. 2 pick. They famously have a young, highly marketable lead ballhandler in LaMelo Ball. There are reports that in part due to Ball’s presence the Hornets are leaning toward Alabama wing Brandon Miller at No. 2. That’s what Kevin O’Connor says in his latest mock draft for The Ringer’s draft guide.

All indications suggest the Hornets are leaning toward Miller with this choice as a partner for LaMelo Ball. I’d go in that direction too over Scoot Henderson because Miller brings playmaking skill in his own right, on top of his go-to scoring prowess.

Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers are picking at No. 3. The decision tree for that team seems to be that Portland should either draft Scoot and trade Damian Lillard for a bounty of picks and young players, or Portland should trade Scoot and perhaps some combination of future picks, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons to get veteran help for Lillard. It’s framed as a binary choice between Scoot and Dame, similar to how in Charlotte it’s framed as “not Scoot because of LaMelo.”

This isn’t universal, of course, and I’ll acknowledge here that I am just transitioning into draft mode while the real draftniks have been locked in for months now. But to me it seems crazy to move off of a 19-year-old potential superstar because he might duplicate the skills of your best player … when those skills are as important as playmaking and ballhandling.

Maybe Miller is in this echelon of star. Size, athleticism and range are a powerful combo at the NBA level, and the tools appear to be there.

And so if there is an affirmative case in Charlotte for Miller over Scoot because of the superstar potential, so be it. If the case for Miller over Scoot has to do with LaMelo’s presence, that feels like a bad process. When potential stars are on the table, fit should have little role in the decision tree. That’s where you get into trouble as an NBA team. When you’re bad enough to win the No. 2 pick — and make no mistake, the Hornets are bad — you need to take your best shots at superstar talent, regardless of what you have.

LaMelo has been an All-Star once, but he’s not on track to become an MVP contender. He hasn’t shown that he needs to be a 30% usage player unless his efficiency increases dramatically. He could very much use some help carrying the offensive load. Every playmaker needs that. Every team needs multiple ballhandlers, multiple creators on the court. If the Hornets pass up Scoot because of LaMelo, chances are they’ll still be hunting for a backcourt partner who can help Ball share the load as time winds on. And never mind the fact that Ball missed a bunch of games in two of his three NBA seasons.

For Portland, I understand the outsider inclination toward a binary choice between contention and rebuilding. I’ve written about the weird zone Dame and the Blazers find themselves in.

Wasting Dame('s) Time

Where I landed in that piece is that I find Dame’s rejection of Ringz Culture heroic but I believe there’s a minimum threshold of team success that should be non-negotiable for players of Lillard’s caliber, and Portland has not met that threshold for two years running. The logical next step from that: Portland either focuses entirely on meeting the threshold, or Dame should be moved.

If Charlotte passes on Scoot, the middle path reveals itself: just draft Scoot, rework the rest of the roster a little to get some more wing and defensive help and shoot the gap.