Why (I think) the Celtics will win

These Mavericks might win most Finals. But these Celtics are so, so good.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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Thunder Storm on Narragansett Bay; Martin Johnson Heade; 1868

Here was the rotation for the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals:

• Jayson Tatum

• Jaylen Brown

• Al Horford

• Marcus Smart

• Robert Williams

• Derrick White

• Grant Williams

• Payton Pritchard

• Daniel Theis

Two years later, Tatum and Brown are both better players (Brown appreciably so). White has been elevated. Smart has been replaced by Jrue Holiday, who is better. The Williamses have been replaced by Kristaps Porzingis, who when healthy is significantly better. Horford’s role is smaller. Pritchard is significantly improved. Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet and in a pinch Xavier Tillman and Oshae Brissett round out the rotation.

The Celtics are, in my view, significantly better than the 2022 version. Their net rating was much better. Their win total was much higher. Their playoff record, albeit against soft competition, is much better. That 2022 lost in six to an all-time performance from an all-time player. They will face an all-time player in this series, but I think they are better equipped to handle it.

The Mavericks have gotten to this point by wrecking opposing offenses. Is the Boston offense capable of being wrecked for four games? Color me skeptical. The Celtics rely heavily on threes, famously, and a triple-heavy attack can lead to some variance. There’s certainly a world in which a bad luck stretch from Boston and some excellent defense from Dallas gives the Mavericks a game or two, and that swings the series. It’s well within the realm of possibility. Is it likely? Again, color me skeptical.

What Dallas has become brilliant at shutting down is the paint. In this sense, Boston’s love affair with the perimeter is a strength: the Celtics are largely not relying on rim attacks in the way, say, the Minnesota Timberwolves did. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II will get opportunities to make their presence felt, but not as frequently as they did in the Western playoffs. The three-point variance could also play a factor on the other end of the court: Dallas also relies heavily on long-range jumpers, and in particular unassisted threes. Boston recorded a very strong three-point defense performance this season.

Everything the Mavericks can do, the Celtics would seem to have a counter. Everything the Mavericks might struggle with, the Celtics would seem to be in position to take advantage.

Dallas had the No. 4 defensive effective field goal percentage after the trade deadline? Cool. Boston had the No. 2 eFG in that span. And the other side is a statistical mismatch in the Celtics’ favor: Dallas has had an average offense, Boston has had an elite defense. Luka has been consistently drawing fouls in the postseason? Alright, well Boston had the lowest opponent free throw rate in the league. And the lowest turnover rate, so don’t expect points there.

What this comes down to for me is that the Celtics have very few weaknesses. Against Indiana, they won a few very close games, which had been their bogeyman this season. Sure, that’s Indiana. Dallas is not Indiana. Luka Doncic is not Tyrese Haliburton. That old storyline — that Tatum and Brown are less reliable in the clutch, whereas Luka and Kyrie Irving are quite the opposite — could pop up. It could be relevant. It could decide the series. But the Celtics are so good that other stuff would have had to go terribly wrong for it to matter.

The shadow in all of this is the health of Porzingis, who hasn’t played in weeks. The Celtics are indiciating that things look good for him. The structure of the Finals means that Al Horford shouldn’t be significantly overtaxed if he has to play starter minutes. The Boston offense needs Porzingis in order to reach full capability, and his rim protection could help in the event the Celtics defense closes hard on corner shooters who then attack the rim (Derrick Jones Jr. is a particular candidate for this). There’s also the matter of Kornet, who probably doesn’t belong in a Finals rotation (no offense to him). Missing Porzingis exposes the less attractive parts of Boston’s depth chart. (Again, no offense intended!)

But I’m pretty convinced Boston could still win the title even if Porzingis misses time in the Finals. No team is perfectly curated to deal with a Luka and Kyrie backcourt. But the sheer number of different types of individual defenders Boston has to throw at them is incredible. Dallas has become expert at hunting switches — ask Rudy Gobert — but with White’s recovery timing, Holiday’s disruptive hands, Tatum’s length and Brown’s athletic strength, it’s going to be a chore scoring on this team. We have seen Luka and Kyrie make lots of tough shots. But if you’re asking them to do that for a whole series while trying to slow down one of the greatest offenses ever … it’s a tough ask.

And finally, on that offense: Tatum is set up for a huge series here. I can’t tell how seriously he really takes the talk about where he ranks in the league. I can’t tell if he’s legitimately offended that no one outside of New England would put him above Luka. Either way, this is a beautiful opportunity to stake his claim in the top five. Jones or P.J. Washington will be getting the assignment. Tatum is too long and too skilled to be stopped by them. If he gets to his spots, if he moves the ball, if he finds creases and looks for his teammates — stuff he’s done the entire playoffs — he could have a monster, reputation-making series. If he’s in the top-5 mix with Jokic, Giannis, Luka and Shai, he could get a trophy that two of those dudes don’t have. He could be the main character bringing Banner 18 to the Garden, and put a stamp on the Tatum-Brown era for the league’s most successful franchise.

Brown was my pre-playoffs Finals MVP pick, and I think a worthy winner of the Eastern Conference Finals MVP trophy. After watching the playoffs unfold, and considering the particular match-up with Dallas, I think it’s Tatum’s time.

Unless, of course, Luka goes full kaiju.

Game 1 is Thursday.

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And Now, A Casual Male Fan Of The WNBA Offers A Spicy Take

Napheesa Collier might be the second best player in the league?! Lynx back?!!!

The WNBA is better when the Lynx are awesome. And the Lynx are awesome again. It’s long been clear than after Maya Moore’s early retirement, and after Sylvia Fowles began her second career as a mortician, that this would be Napheesa Collier’s team. And Phee has been pretty incredible when she’s been on the court: two top-5 MVP finishes in four healthy seasons, an All-Star nod as a rookie, first team All-WNBA last season. It just hasn’t translated to much team success outside of 2021, where the eventual champion Chicago Sky knocked the Lynx out in single-elimination in the playoffs.

It appears Minnesota has something now with Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith. Or they maybe it’s all about PHEE, who has been better than ever and would be a real candidate for Best In The World if not for, you know, the existence of her close friend A’ja Wilson down in Vegas.

Through eight games here are Collier’s ranks in various per-game stats:

• Points: 4th (21)

• Rebounds: 3rd (11)

• Assists: 20th (3.4)

• Steals: 3rd (2.5)

• Blocks: 7th (1.8)

Again, if not for A’ja, we’d be putting together some MVPHEE chatter right about now.

But maybe the best thing about the Lynx resurgence is that these players are having a great time. The victory dance never left, but it’s happening more frequently these days.

My allegiance will likely flip to the local-ish Valkyries next season. For now, let’s go Lynx.

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OK, Exactly Three Lines On The WNBA Debate Most Of The Sports World Is Having

1. Monica McNutt is absolutely fearless and correct, and that makes for great content.

2. This whole thing is basically an amped version of the Sabrina Ionescu “conversation” from two years ago.

3. The Fever should trade Kelsey Mitchell because they are still two years away from being decent and Mitchell has been through enough in Indiana.

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Links

Marc Stein

on whether home court will mean anything in the NBA Finals. Stein also reports that Giannis and Luka both appear to be on track to play in the Olympic qualifying tournament in four weeks.

Katie Heindl

on the continued mystery within the Cavaliers.

Tom Haberstroh

on a suddenly less rare achievement that Luka is chasing.

Jared Dubin

says farewell to the Timberwolves.

Essential John Schuhmann Finals preview.

Ben Rohrbach with a corrective on the so-called rule that the best player in a series win.

Interested to see how Phee and Breanna Stewart’s Unrivaled 3x3 women’s league pans out. I like 3x3 in theory. BIG3 did not do it for me, despite the presence of Donté Greene. Olympic and FIBA 3x3 does not do it for me.

NBA writers on Substack makin’ some Finals predictions.

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Alright, that’s enough for me. Be excellent to each other.