Who are the 2023 NBA contenders right now?

Movement remains frozen. So let's look at the state of things.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Tomorrow I’ll have something on the end of Roe and the 2023 NBA All-Star Weekend. I want to give myself enough time to not write rashly about the topic, but I also know the importance of acknowledging the devastating turn of events for women’s rights in this country over the last 72 hours.

Malika Andrews @malika_andrews

On Roe v. Wade:

Reproductive rights are human rights.

Con-ten-ders

Sacrifice to Pan, Francisco Goya, 1771

Longtime readers know I favor an expansive view of NBA contenderhood. Evidence supports these theories. We haven’t had a repeat champion since 2017 and 2018, and before that since 2012 and 2013. Over the last five seasons, a different Eastern Conference franchise has made the NBA Finals every season — no repeats. (Of course, the prior seven seasons were split between two franchises that shared a particular player over that time.) The West has been more stable, with the Warriors claiming three of the last five Finals berth. But the two non-Warriors West crowns were won by teams that were among the worst in the conference for the bulk of the 2010s. That seems worth noting.

So, again, instead of believing that only a minimal number of teams can win a championship in any given season, I have a more maximal view I feel is supported by recent evidence. And with that said, here’s who I think is in play for the 2023 championship as currently constructed, without making a major offseason move, along with a brief explanation why.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: For obvious reasons.

BOSTON CELTICS: My view is that if you make the Finals, you are capable of winning the title. If you don’t think so, I’d point to the 2019 Raptors.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: Kawhi Leonard has been the single most important swing piece in two and nearly three championships since 2013. If he is back, the Clippers will be knocking on the door.

DALLAS MAVERICKS: There’s no evidence they can get past Golden State, but you don’t always have to get past your more difficult challenge directly.

MIAMI HEAT: They were inches away from tying Game 7 in the closing seconds against Boston.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS: Perhaps the East favorite for 2023 at this point.

PHOENIX SUNS: My most controversial take is that the Suns are good and ran into a vicious buzzsaw.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: The narrative history of the NBA would tell you they need to wait their turn. Did the 2015 Warriors wait their turn? Just saying.

DENVER NUGGETS: I am least comfortable on this ledge simply because the only time we saw the Nuggets at their full potential was in the bubble.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS: I understand and accept skepticism here based on your feelings about James Harden’s physical status. I’m still willing to believe this core can get there.

That’s 10 teams, a third of the league, that I think can reasonably considered contenders right now, with their current rosters. My bubble teams are, oddly enough, the original 2022 favorites: the L.A. Lakers (LeBron plus Anthony Davis remains compelling to me!) and the Brooklyn Nets (Kevin Durant had one tough series against an all-time defense). But I think both teams need something else to rise to this level.

Some teams may lose talent in the coming weeks — Deandre Ayton perhaps, or P.J. Tucker. Some teams may gain it. There will be shuffle where it’s not clear from inception whether a team got better or worse. Frankly, it may never be clear if what these teams do this summer makes them better or worse. NBA success is so binary and conditioned that teasing out variables is nearly impossible.

We’ll revisit in a month, when the dust settles.