Where the Timberwolves can go

Karl-Anthony Towns is playing like a king, Minnesota is hot and there's a runway here.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Romulus and Remus, Peter Paul Rubens, 1615-16

It’s been a long time in the NBA since a true center dropped 60. Karl-Anthony Towns pulled that off on Monday night. He put Jakob Poeltl and Zach Collins in the Nightmare Zone.

KAT is probably one of the three best three-level center scorers in NBA history; the other two, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, just also happen to be playing right now. KAT’s shooting averages this season: 52/41/82 for 25 points per game. He’s basically unguardable unless he’s playing against one of the truly elite defensive centers, and even then he’s a problem. He’s not quite in Jokic or Embiid’s class overall: both are substantially better defenders (Embiid by a very large degree) and Jokic is a far superior passer. But Tier 2 under those guys, that’s not a bad place to be for a 26-year-old aiming at his first playoff berth as the clear-cut team star.

Beyond KAT, it’s pretty amazing what the Timberwolves have become. They were 16-20 at one point this season, looking at fighting for a play-in berth. Since then, they are 24-10, rising to 10 games over .500 and just 1.5 games behind the Nuggets for the No. 6 seed. Minnesota is so good that some opposed to the play-in are pointing out that it’s a bit absurd that, if all continues as it is and the Wolves lose to the Clippers in the 7-8 play-in game, they’d need to beat a team 10 games below them in the standings to make the playoffs. It seems unfair when, prior to the installation of the play-in, the Wolves would be assured a playoff series at this point with the Lakers and Pelicans so far back.

Alas, the play-in gives and it takes. To be sure, missing the playoffs on a fluke pair of play-in losses would hurt bad after such a successful regular season. But what happens the rest of this season, though, should look something like a blip on a suddenly bright future for the Wolves. As mentioned, Towns is 26 and finally looks the part of a foundational superstar.

Then there’s Anthony Edwards, the 20-year-old confidence machine who has bumped up his efficiency in Year 2 while becoming a 20-ppg scorer. If Edwards continues to improve as it looks like he could, and he does it as quickly as he appears able to, within a couple years the Wolves could have one of the most potent offensive duos in the NBA.

The development of Edwards and increased power of KAT has been aided by the functional point guard play of D’Angelo Russell: he’s playing as similar to his All-Star season in Brooklyn as he has since, with an emphasis on playmaking in lieu of attacking. Russell is also just 26; if you think there’s not much further upside to explore here, at minimum D’Lo should be able to maintain his current above-average level for years to come, barring injury.

Of course, what’s been stunning about the Timberwolves this season is primarily their defense, which ranks No. 11 in the NBA despite featuring KAT, a poor defender his entire career, in the middle. Smarter analysts than me can determine whether the team defense is successful in spite of KAT or whether he has something to do with the reversal. My basic eye test shows higher activity level from him, which is to be expected given there are actually stakes for the Wolves this season; by this point, Minnesota is usually out of the running for … everything.

There also seems to be some accountability on the squad now, between Edwards’ unfiltered assessments, Patrick Beverley’s tricks and Elston Turner’s quiet genius. For the 14th time: how has Elston Turner never been an NBA head coach? He’s been running shockingly good defenses for legitimately 20 years now. This accountability seems natural and well-received, unlike the Jimmy Butler show-you-up brand that worked for a second (alongside Tom Thibodeau’s barking) before going up in smoke. Honestly, separating Towns from Andrew Wiggins — a similar personality type, from what I can tell as an outsider — probably helped, too. Edwards seems to have embraced PatBev’s idiosyncratic nature, and that buy-in from the young ingenue surely helps the overall vibe. Winning helps, too, and Towns is obviously an enormous factor in that.

We should mention the actual good defenders here, too. Jarred Vanderbilt is a 22-year-old chaotic force on defense on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Jaden McDaniels is 21 and on a late-first rookie deal and has been a big plus on defense. Turner and Chris Finch have some weapons to deploy here, and Vanderbilt and McDaniels are doing what’s needed to keep Minnesota stingier than they should be. This was one of the teams chasing Ben Simmons for his versatile, elite defense. They still don’t have an individual defender at Peak Simmons level. But they have come up with something that works.

KAT’s 26. D’Lo is 26. Ant is 20. McDaniels is 21. Vando is 22. Throw in Malik Beasley, despite his 19-minute Snell on Monday. He’s 25. That is a core. Minnesota is capped out for next season and doesn’t figure to have that one summer young teams sometimes do where they can throw cap space around, unless they move off of Beasley and maybe even Beverley (unadvisable, to be honest). Russell has one more year on his deal after this season; those negotiations will be interesting, and seem primed for an extension this summer.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are good and getting better, which is not a sentence you could typically say over the history of the Minnesota Timberwolves. They will likely get dropped in the first round of the NBA playoffs by the Suns, Grizzlies or Warriors. But there’s no shame in that, and the room to grow is still there. KAT’s hitting new levels, there’s nothing but upside potential ahead for Ant, there seems to be a positive team culture brewing and the defense is singing. The Timberwolves are doing it right. What a world.