What's still at stake in the NBA playoff races?
The No. 1 seeds are probably locked up, but there's a lot of action right behind them and further down the table.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
Wassily Kandinsky, The Rider
Each NBA team has now played between 53 and 57 games this season, leaving 25-29 games left. That’s a solid third of the season remaining, which is a real big chunk. But is much really going to change? What’s still at stake? Let’s check in on the standings to see what teams are still fighting for.
Top Seeds
Milwaukee has a 7-game lead in the loss column for the No. 1 seed in the East. The Bucks will not be caught. That’s your No. 1 seed in the East.
For the No. 2 seed in the East, Toronto leads but Boston (1 game back) and Miami (4 games back) are still alive. This is an important seed, because the winner gets Brooklyn or Orlando in all likelihood while the losers get Indiana, Philadelphia or each other.
Looking at the No. 4 seed, Philadelphia (2 games back) and Indiana (4 games back) both do have a shot of catching Miami. There’s a non-zero chance Philadelphia could get all the way to No. 2, but the gap is strong right now (6 games) and Toronto seems to be getting healthy. Miami has the biggest home-road deficit remaining.
Over the West, the Lakers are up five games in the loss column over Denver, so that should be a secure seed. The next six teams after L.A. are rather bunched up: just five losses separate the No. 2 seed from No. 7. Right now, there looks to be two tiers of teams: Denver, the Clippers (1 game behind the Nuggets), Utah (1 game back) and Houston (3 games back); then there is Oklahoma City and Dallas (5 games back).
Houston is in the middle there — the lower teams could catch them, or the Rockets could catch No. 2. Like I said, they are bunched up and it’s fluid. This is where having a full third of the season left matters: there could be a lot of change in this zone. Any of these teams could conceivably get hot at grab the No. 2 or 3 seed, or any of them could take an injury or a cold spell and slide to No. 6 or 7.
Final Playoff Seeds
Currently, the East’s Nos. 7 and 8 are under .500. Brooklyn, at No. 7, has a 5-game cushion on No. 9 Washington. Orlando at No. 8 is just 24-31 and holds a 2-game cushion on Washington. The next closest teams (Chicago and Charlotte) are five games behind Orlando in the loss column. I don’t think either of them have a sustained run in them, but the Hornets seem like a better bet to at least try. It’s a huge indictment of the East’s lower half that the 18-36 Hornets are kinda still in this.
The West’s bottom half is less depressing: Memphis is sitting plum in the No. 8 spot at 28-26 with a 5-game cushion on Portland and San Antonio in the loss column. New Orleans, Phoenix and Sacramento are all 6-7 games behind Memphis. Only Minnesota and Golden State are truly and thoroughly out of it in the West, but the Pels, Suns and Kings would need a real big hot streak and other things to go right given how many teams they need to jump. This is the Grizzlies’ spot to lose, in other words, with the Blazers and Spurs in the best position to pounce if Memphis goes sideways.
Tank-Off
Institutional tanking still exists, but tanking down the stretch just isn’t the same with the new lottery odds. Plus, there isn’t a consensus No. 1 pick this season. That said, Golden State has the worst record in the NBA (two wins more than Cleveland) but Steph Curry is coming back within a couple of weeks, and he has to be worth a few extra wins, even if he’s only playing 25-30 minutes per game. (Draymond Green is playing 29 minutes per game, and he’s been mostly healthy.)
Cleveland might get the ol’ dead cat bounce from John Beilein’s inglorious exit. Atlanta, Minnesota and New York currently have 1, 2 and 3 more wins than the Cavs, respectively. Any three of these five teams could end up with a 14 percent shot at the No. 1 seed. Any of them could end up picking No. 7 or 8 because of the new lottery structure. It’s very wide open.
Ain’t No Sunshine When She’s Gone
Alright, alright, alright. The Connecticut Sun made an enormous splash at the beginning of WNBA free agency, chasing down DeWanna Bonner with a max contract (and giving the Mercury assets to get the opportunity). Meanwhile, apparently, the Sun told Courtney Williams they didn’t have the dough to give her the contract she desired after helping lead Connecticut to the Finals.
So Williams got heated, of course, and let the Sun know she wanted out. On Wednesday, Connecticut traded Williams to the Atlanta Dream, where she got her big contract. The Sun got back Briann January from the Mercury in the deal.
In announcing the trade, Sun coach Curt Miller fired shots at Williams for … uh, disloyalty?
Yikes, man. Williams had her Twitter fingers stretched and warmed up, too.
Since Northern California still doesn’t have a WNBA team, I guess I’m an Atlanta Dream fan now. First Dream vs. Sun match-up is June 13. Let’s go.
Schedule
Six games on Comeback Night with a TNT doubleheader. All times are Eastern. Games are on League Pass unless otherwise noted.
Bucks at Pistons, 7
Heat at Hawks, 7:30
Nets at Sixers, 8, TNT
Hornets at Bulls, 8
Grizzlies at Kings, 10
Rockets at Warriors, 10:30, ESPN
Links
I’m so proud of my people getting consciously uncoupled from Sactown Royalty for figuring out how to rebuild their community.
Hella valuable breakdown of the schedules remaining for each team by John Schuhmann.
I wrote about the John Beilein disaster for SB Nation. The Athletic has a tick-tock on what went wrong in Cleveland ($).
Zach Lowe talked to league officials about the successful All-Star Game and learned that the NBA is considering 40-minute games for the proposed midseason tournament. Here’s Ethan Strauss on innovations and TV ratings in The Athletic ($).
Allan Houston is in line for a promotion with the Knicks, it appears.
Dan Devine offers up his five most interesting teams of the stretch run.
Matt Ellentuck on how the 2020 WNBA free agency period is going to change the league forever, for better and worse.
Kyrie Irving is out again with shoulder pain.
Sue Bird on women’s basketball fashion and the crazy offseason.
Mike Prada on the Celtics as title contenders.
And finally: JaVale McGee wrote and produced a song for Justin Bieber.
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While it makes no sense to me that any W players would play for her team, I can think of few things more intriguing that watching Kelly Loeffler watch Courtney Williams' Instagram stories.