What playoff seeds are in play?

There are seven big areas of standings intrigue when the NBA resumes next month.

Jun 10, 2020

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Orchard in Bloom, Camille Pissarro

We don’t yet have official game schedules for the NBA’s July 31 resumption, but we know each of the 22 teams will play eight regular season games before potential play-in games and the playoffs. I thought it’d be wise to dig in on the areas of the standings where those eight games will have an impact, especially given that match-ups — not home court advantage — is the driving factor here.

2-3-4 in East

Right now, the Raptors have a three-game lead on the Celtics for the No. 2 seed and a 5.5-game lead on the Heat. With just eight games left, the Raptors essentially cannot fall to No. 4 or lower, which means that Toronto will avoid the Bucks until the conference finals. The typical 2-3 battle is fought over home court in the second round. This year, the first round match-up is the only item of importance. The No. 2 seed will face the Nets (who shouldn’t have Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving available), Magic or Wizards. The No. 3 seed will face the Heat, Sixers or Pacers. You want the No. 2 seed.

But avoiding No. 4 if you can grab No. 3 is more important. So that will be the flashpoint for Boston and Miami: drawing the Raptors in the second round instead of the Bucks. (No offense to the reigning champions.)

4-5-6 in East

Miami could jump as high as No. 3, but it could also easily fall to No. 6. That’s the difference between facing one of the better non-Bucks teams in the conference or one of the more middling squads. Indiana and Philadelphia are both two games behind Miami for No. 4, but too far out (4.5 games) to have a reasonable shot at catching Boston. If Miami can’t climb to No. 3, I think the question here is whether No. 6 becomes more attractive than Nos. 4 or 5 because of the looming Bucks. The problem with No. 6 is you’re probably not getting out of the first round against the Raptors, Celtics or maybe Heat. At least if you’re in the 4/5 series, you can feel even getting to the second round is doable, even if the second round looms.

But match-ups could be in real play here. It’s too messy to sort out where the favorable seed might be for, say, Philly. That could change three games into the return.

7-8 in the East

The No. 7 seed gets Toronto or Boston while the No. 8 seed gets Milwaukee. That said, both seeds will absolutely lose unless something really dramatic happens. The key benefit of No. 7 over No. 8 is avoiding a potential play-in with Washington. The Wizards need to make up two games in the standings to earn a play-in. But whichever of Orlando and Brooklyn grab No. 7 can avoid that. Sounds like a priority.

2-3-4 in the West

The Clippers can technically catch the Lakers for No. 1, but it would mean the Lakers going 2-6 or worse. Not going to happen. The first- or second-round match-ups don’t really matter in the 2-3 race because there’s no drop-off between No. 6 and No. 7 and no home court. So the key here is avoiding No. 4 or lower to earn the clearest path to the conference finals.

The Clips have a 1.5-game lead on Denver but will finish the season with one fewer game than the Nuggets. The Jazz are three games behind L.A. — basically, the Clippers need to avoid going 3-5 or something to avoid falling to No. 4. They should be fine and end up No. 2 or No. 3.

That said, for the Nuggets and Jazz, I’m not sure facing the Clippers in the second round is any better than facing the Lakers. These teams may have their own opinions on this and play accordingly. We know from history that the Nuggets are not above chasing favorable match-ups by strategically losing games. The Clippers will probably play it straight. The Nuggets and Jazz might get weird to avoid bad first-round match-ups (perhaps Houston in both cases, weirdly enough).

3-4-5-6 in the West

Take the Clippers and the No. 2 seed out, and the middle of the West gets even wilder. Just 2.5 games separate these teams. Any one of them — Nuggets, Jazz, Thunder, Rockets — could conceivably jump to No. 3 or finish No. 6. As mentioned with regards to 3-4, the likely driving factor in any shenanigans is match-ups, not path to the conference finals since both the Lakers and Clippers are daunting. These four teams will potentially be playing each other in the first round (unless the Nuggets or in a shock the Jazz eclipse the Clips) and I cannot wait.

~The Mavericks are in a weird spot~

Dallas is No. 7, 1.5 games behind the Thunder and Rockets. The reason why is because Dallas has played three more games than OKC and Houston, and has three more losses. OKC and Houston are 40-24, Dallas is 40-27.

The NBA’s decision to make all teams play eight more games instead of setting a target number of games played for all teams (like 72) really helps the Mavericks. If Dallas gets hot in these eight games, they can absolutely catch any of these teams that falter. Had the NBA set a target number of games, Dallas would have essentially already lost its first few “resumption” games and be close to out of the mix.

Dallas should absolutely try for a better seed, by the way. A first-round date with the Clippers, in all likelihood, awaits the No. 7 seed.

Race for 9 in the West

The Grizzlies have a very high likelihood of making the play-in as No. 8 or 9, as long as they don’t fall completely on their faces. That means this isn’t a 6-team battle for two spots — take Memphis and no-chance Phoenix out, and it’s a 4-team battle for one spot.

Portland has played two more games than Sacramento and New Orleans and three more than San Antonio, which is an advantage for the Blazers. But Portland does have 37 losses; the other three teams have 36. Tiebreakers will only come into play if Sacramento and New Orleans are knotted for No. 9, and they are likely playing two games against each other during the resumption.

As I wrote last week, this is going to be nutty.