What are you tanking for?

The incentives to tank have dropped precipitously. Yet teams still do it.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Dynamism of a Dog on a Leash, Giacomo Balla, 1912

The bad teams, they are a’tanking. Yesterday I pointed out the Magic’s efforts to lose a close game to the Cavaliers by running pure bench lineups instead of getting their young starters some high-stakes minutes. I also pointed out that the Blazers and Thunder had a combined 20 players on their injury list. With the exception of the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets, who appear to welcome victory and working toward it on a nightly basis, the bad teams, they are a’tanking.

But for what? Didn’t the league fix tanking by changing the NBA draft lottery?

Well, sort of. To a degree. The NBA did make earning the very worst record in the league less attractive by flattening the odds among the three worst teams. In the old days, the worst team would have 25% odds of getting the No. 1 pick. Now, each of the worst three teams has a 14% chance. In the old days, the worst team would pick no worse than No. 4. Now, the worst team can pick as low as No. 5.

And that there is the lingering issue: the NBA does not draw lots for every pick, just the first four. After the top four picks are decided via lottery, the remainder of the picks in the first round are determined by win-loss record (barring trades, swaps, etc.). So if neither Team A with the worst record in the NBA and Team B with the second worst record get top-4 picks, Team A picks No. 5 and Team B picks No. 6.

That’s the incentive for those worst three teams to outtank each other for the bottom. It’s not nearly as strong an incentive as the old lottery odds were, but it’s still an incentive.

How do we define the incentive? Well, instead of looking merely at the odds for the No. 1 overall pick (same among the worst three teams) or to win a top-3 pick (same among the worst three teams) we can look at the weighted average of odds across all picks to come up with an average expected draft pick based on finish in the standings. Here’s what those look like given current lottery odds, assuming no ties.