Things that are wrong with the Miami Heat
And how likely they are to fix themselves.
Good morning.
Wonderful news that broke just before I published this morning’s newsletter: Brittney Griner is free and has been transferred to U.S. custody after a prisoner exchange.
Can you imagine the trauma BG, her wife, her family, her friends and teammates have been through over the past nine months? I can’t. Can you imagine the relief right now, the catharsis when she walks off a plane in the United States of America in the next couple of days??? I can’t. Here’s to years of comfort and happiness that can hopefully put the trauma and fear in the past and out of the present for BG and her crew.
And here’s to release, relief and catharsis for other political prisoners being held.
Let’s basketball.
Hands Burgkmair and His Wife Anna; Lukas Furtenagel; 1523
The Miami Heat, who had the best record in the East last season and have won five playoff series in the last three seasons, are 11-14 and in 10th place in the conference. Last season they hadn’t picked up their 14th loss until January 2, when they fell to 23-14.
Jimmy Butler has played just 15 of the team’s 25 games, so it’s easy to come to the conclusion that Butler’s absence has broken the Heat’s ability to string together wins. But that ignores that Butler missed a ton of time in 2021-22 as well: he played 57 of 82 games (70%). Last season, the Heat were 15-10 in games Butler missed. Miami is 4-6 in those games this year. That indicates that it’s something beyond Butler’s availability.
So, what’s the problem? Or more specifically, what are the problems?
3-Point Shooting
Miami had the best three-point shooting percentage in the league last season. They had eight players who had taken 100 threes over the course of the season, and only one (Butler) shot under 37%. (Butler took the fewest among those players and shot 23%.) There are eight Heat players who have taken at least 30 threes this season at the 30% mark of the season, and only one — Caleb Martin — is shooting 37% or better.
Duncan Robinson: 37% last season, 32% this season. Max Strus: 41% last season, 36% this season. Tyler Herro: 40% last season, 36% this season. Kyle Lowry: 38% last season, 35% this season. Gabe Vincent: 37% last season, 30% this season. P.J. Tucker shot 42% last season. The newest addition to the Heat rotation, though not exactly Tucker’s stand-in, is Haywood Highsmith. He’s shooting 30% on threes at roughly the same frequency as Tucker shot last year.
The Heat are shooting threes about as frequently as they did last season. They’ve fallen from No. 1 to No. 22 in conversion rate. Obviously, that has a huge impact on a team’s offense. Miami was No. 10 in offensive rating last year, and is No. 26 this season.
Most of the names I mentioned above as having fallen off in three-point shooting are good shooters for their career. I’d anticipate this will self-correct as time goes on, though perhaps not everyone is as good a shooter as they showed last season.
3-Point Defense
I’m not a keen enough analyst to ascertain whether Miami’s three-point defense is a scheme problem, bad luck, noise or personnel driven. But Heat opponents had the second worst three-point shooting percentage last season, and have the 14th best this season. Miami went from elite in terms of three-point defense to average. That’s contributed to a notable defensive fall-off for Miami despite huge improvements in foul rate (from No. 27 to No. 2) and only minor fluctuations in opponent two-point percentage, defensive rebounding and turnover creation (a Miami calling card, which remains strong).
Miami was No. 5 in defensive rating last season and sits at No. 9 this year.
So the two questions to ask about Miami when trying to determine if their problems are fatal or if they will recover to form and rise up the standings:
Will all of their shooters continue to have off years or will they revert back to the form they showed last season?
Will opponents continue to shoot at an average rate from deep or was their three-point defense from 2021-22 replicable?
With the caveat that I’m not comfortable making a strong statement on three-point defense, I’d presume that the offense will improve as the shooters start hitting at higher clips but I don’t necessarily think the defense will certainly bounce back to 2021-22 levels. But with a top-10 defense — which Miami has even now thanks to their turnover creation excellence and great improvement in foul rate — an average offense, which is attainable, should get the Heat into the top-6 in the East.
And once they’re in the playoffs, we know Jimmy Butler’s Heat can cause problems for even excellent opponents.
Scores
Clippers 111, Magic 116 (OT) — Paul George missed a shot to win it in regulation, Paolo Banchero drew the foul to put the Magic ahead for good in OT. In other news, Moritz “Mo” Wagner:
Hornets 116, Nets 122 — Since giving up 153 points to the Kings in regulation on November 15 — which was widely cited as proof the Nets’ revival was fake — Brooklyn is quietly 8-3 with the No. 11 offense, No. 7 defense and No. 9 net rating. There’s nothing here that indicates they will challenge the Celtics or Bucks for a top-2 seed, and even the Cavaliers seem a clear level better. But Brooklyn is sitting in the No. 4 seed right now, and there’s little reason to think they can’t be the Best of the Rest, especially with the Heat struggling so badly. And I simply do not want to face Kevin Durant in the playoffs! Ever!
Hawks 89, Knicks 113 — Dejounte Murray exited very early with a foot injury, and Trae Young shot just 9/20 from the floor. Bogdan Bogdanovic looks very rusty three games into his return. Jarrett Culver and Vit Krejci played meaningful minutes for Atlanta. I know we’ve been talking about a John Collins trade for a long time. And the Hawks are above .500. But … something’s off. This shouldn’t be a below average offense (No. 21) with this talent, even with some injuries around the horn.
Lakers 113, Raptors 126 — No LeBron or Anthony Davis for L.A. 13th place in the West.
Thunder 102, Grizzlies 123 — 26 in the loss for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Pacers 115, Timberwolves 121 — Indiana down two, Buddy Hield has Rudy Gobert on a switch with under 20 seconds left. Hield fakes left and crosses to the right to get by the Stifle Tower with a lane to the rim and a tied game. Hey, wait a minute, why do they call him the Stifle Tower again? OH THAT’S WHY.
16 points, 21 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks for Gobert. Pretty good night, mon frère. Anthony Edwards went 26-8-8 with 6 steals and said this afterward:
Might this be salvageable?!
Pistons 98, Pelicans 104 — With the win and Phoenix’s loss your New Orleans Pelicans are in sole possession of first place in the Western Conference!
If for some reason you missed it, I wrote about the Pelicans on Monday.
I’m dying at poor Cory Joseph trying to wrap up Zion Williamson to prevent the breakaway dunk and Zion still getting into his shooting motion and making the bucket.
You’re going to have to sweep the leg to prevent him from getting a shot off. I like to think that Zion wasn’t doing the “too small” taunt after the play, he was saying that Joseph was a puny mortal daring to try to stop a god.
Warriors 123, Jazz 124 — Freaking mayhem. The Jazz (missing LeBrauri Markkanen and Mike Conley) collapse in the fourth to a Warriors team missing Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, and trail by four with 13.3 seconds to go. And this happens:
The Warriors lost Malik Beasley watching Nickeil Alexander-Walker pretend to go for a quick two, and then Ty Jerome and Jordan Poole connected for a hold-for-foul inbounds play so soft I want a sweater made out of it. NAW, Kelly Olynyk and Beasley dive on it, Beasley gets out quickly and hits Simone Fontecchio for the winner on the run. INCREDIBLE.
Celtics 125, Suns 98 — Hey, Chris Paul is back!
Turned Jaylen Brown right around! Unfortunately, the Celtics took offense and pummeled the mighty Suns into the ground, dug them back out of the ground and pummeled them again. Boston led by as many as 45 points against what had been the best team in the West. Vicious domination. Devin Booker was a -40 in 25 minutes. The Celtics are absurd.
Schedule
All times Eastern.
Clippers at Heat, 7:30, NBA TV
Rockets at Spurs, 8:30
Nuggets at Blazers, 10, NBA TV
Be excellent to each other.
BG's release is the best basketball news of the year. Thank goodness she's free.
BG!!