The Thunder can taste it

A new era of contention that reminds of another team in the middle of their window.

Jan 03, 2024

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Trellis; Gustave Courbet; 1864

The ascension of the Oklahoma City Thunder is happening before our eyes. And before the Boston Celtics’ eyes. After a tight first half in the Sooner State, the Thunder built up a big lead on the back of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s wizardry and some hot shooting from Josh Giddey of all people. Down the stretch, the Thunder held on for dear life in what was essentially a playoff-type atmosphere. At least that’s what it looked like on T.V.

The Thunder have been in the playoffs a few times since the end of the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook era. Heck, they had two play-in games last year. But this is something different. They have ascended to a new level, skipping over the “happy to be here” stage and advancing directly to the land of expectations. This feels like an inflection point, a moment we’ll point back to as the signpost showing us exactly where the Thunder were going.

It reminds me a little of the 2017-20 era Boston Celtics, actually, early in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum’s NBA careers. There was an established young star around (Kyrie Irving in Boston, Shai in OKC), some young stars with high ceilings and lots of assets — both players and draft equity — to use for upgrades or sustainability. As we know, that Boston team has been to the NBA’s Final Four four times in six years since Tatum arrived, despite Irving skipping town early in the era and despite a horrific injury to one of the few major free agents they landed (Gordon Hayward).

That looks like the type of team the Thunder are building.

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It’s the type of team Sam Presti already built once in Oklahoma City. The Durant era for the Thunder feels different because Durant was arguably the best player in the world for a stretch, and it’s still hard to imagine SGA getting there with Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo around. But from Durant’s fourth season until he decamped for the Bay Area, the Thunder made the NBA Final Four … four times in six years, with one loss in the Finals. Just like these Celtics.

Presti famously traded away a future MVP for salary cap purposes during that first run. That’s something the Celtics haven’t had to do on account of deep pockets and, frankly, the Irving exit. Large payrolls, even for small-market teams, are more painful these days due to cap hardening. That becomes one of the limiting factors for the Thunder: how high can this payroll go, and if it can’t go high enough, who will that cost?

Because of that outlook, and because we saw what Presti had to do a decade ago, and because we see young contenders like the Celtics having to make moves to advance, to manage the cap, to fit in new salaries for their star youngsters, it’s natural to wonder whether the Thunder should make some sort of consolidation trade now to boost their odds for a title in the short term. The Thunder have become an important team in the highest circles of NBA contention. The franchise is fertile soil for discussions of team-building philosophy and how opportunity is embraced or sustained.

Frankly, these are similar questions the No. 1 Timberwolves face; the issue is much more acute in Minnesota given what their cap sheet looks like for 2024-25. The Denver Nuggets had to say goodbye to a very important player after their championship parade (two, if you count Jeff Green, and we always count Jeff Green in this newsletter). A couple years before that parade, they also made a consolidation trade to add a key piece: Aaron Gordon. There’s some discussion as to whether it disgraces the Thunder’s achievements to talk about potential moves they could make to firm up their gains or hit a higher level. That presumes that this roster is their final evolution. What in the history of the NBA would possibly suggest that? If you want to take the Thunder seriously, that requires you to consider how they might further change as they embark on this run of title contention.

In any case, the Thunder do have a few weaknesses, and the Celtics took OKC seriously enough to try to exploit one of them by daring Giddey to shoot. He did, and he hit four threes. What you need and what you get out of that position is a key pivot point for the Thunder (who all reports and logic suggest will indeed stand pat this season to see how this all works in the playoffs). The bench is another pivot point. Presti will know what he has to work with on the cap sheet every year going forward, down to the penny. He obviously has an arsenal of draft picks to use for sustainable young talent and trades.

It’s pretty clear that the Thunder are now suddenly in the mix for NBA Final Four talk. The heavy lifting is done. Now it’s all about maximizing the immense potential of this group, and making it as resilient and sustainable as possible. Presti had six years with a title contender before, and couldn’t quite get to a parade. This is Year 1 for this iteration. Can he do it?

Scores

Bulls 97, Sixers 110 — Joel Embiid is back. 31-15-10 with 2 blocks and a steal in 31 minutes. He has 14 straight 30-10 games. Pretty good.

Celtics 123, Thunder 127 — One plug for the Celtics, who are a pretty damn good team. I was skeptical of Kristaps Porzingis’ upside in Boston given health history and the fact that his most productive individual seasons have come in years when the talent around him was lowest. Mea freaking culpa. That dude fits like a glove with this roster.

Nets 85, Pelicans 112 — The Nets are spiraling since the front office and/or coaching staff forced nearly the entire rotation to rest against the Bucks.

Spurs 98, Grizzlies 106 — My attention was focused elsewhere but I understand that this was a deeply hideous game but for a few highlights. Let’s share the highlights.

How about a 30-foot floater for Victor Wembanyama?

“Do you know how hard that is to do?” Uh, yeah man. I think so.

Here’s Wembanyama introducing himself to Ja Morant at the very start of the game …

… and Morant returning with a plate of cookies in the fourth quarter.

I hope this turns into a nice little rivalry.

Hornets 111, Kings 104 — Speaking of deeply hideous games … Mark Jones used the word “catacylsmic” in the final minute and it was fully appropriate. The Kings fell totally apart in the clutch, Terry Rozier lit ‘em up, the crowd was stunned into a stupor.

Do the Kings need a trade, or a ritual blood-letting? Hard to say. Just an absolutely confounding team.

Magic 115, Warriors 121 — Despite what he’s done to my chest over the past nine months or so, I just want Stephen Curry to be in big positions during the basketball season. I want to see the sparks shoot out of his fingers.

Schedule

It’s a 12-game Wednesday. All times Eastern.

Wizards at Cavaliers, 7
Bucks at Pacers, 7 - these teams cannot stop playing each other!
Thunder at Hawks, 7:30
Nets at Rockets, 8
Raptors at Grizzlies, 8
Pelicans at Timberwolves, 8
Bulls at Knicks, 8:30, ABC - a mid-week game on ABC? don’t ask questions
Blazers at Mavericks, 8:30
Clippers at Suns, 9
Pistons at Jazz, 9
Heat at Lakers, 10, ESPN - NBA games on ABC and ESPN competing against each other? don’t ask questions
Magic at Kings, 10