The three seed problem

A special edition of GMIB on the final day of the 2023-24 regular season.

Good morning. It’s the last day of the regular season!

Birds in a Lotus Pond; Bada Shanren; 1690

Let’s basketball.

---

Vic Wembanyama Made It

As of Friday, Denver controlled its own destiny for the West No. 1 seed with the Spurs and Grizzlies — two of the worst West teams — left to play. And the Nuggets — who won the championship last season and are favorites to come out of the West — led by 23. And then Victor Wembanyama scored 17 points in three minutes to start to bring San Antonio back …

… and Devonte’ Graham eventually finished the job.

An incredible result. When everyone says that these teams better hang these banners while they can, they mean it. We mean it.

The Thunder rocked the Bucks without Giannis or Dame, and the Wolves edged the Hawks in Karl-Anthony Towns’ return (11 points, 4/11 shooting, 5 rebounds, 8 assists, -4 in 28 minutes). Those results left us with a THREE-WAY TIE atop the Western Conference. Unprecedented with one game to go.

Here’s how this knot unravels.

• IF ALL THREE TEAMS WIN: OKC No. 1, MIN No. 2, DEN No. 3

• IF ONE TEAM WINS AND THE OTHER TWO LOSE: That team gets No. 1, the others get No. 2 and 3

• IF MIN AND ONLY ONE OF THE TWO OTHER TEAMS WINS: The Wolves get No. 1, the other winner gets No. 2, the loser gets No. 3

• IF OKC AND DEN WIN AND MIN LOSES: OKC No. 1, DEN No. 2, MIN No. 3

• IF ALL THREE TEAMS LOSE: OKC No. 1, MIN No. 2, DEN No. 3

In related news, the Nuggets listed half their roster — including all the important players — as questionable, so they may just assume the other teams are winning and take an extra day off. Which would rob us the chance of G.G. Jackson having a chance to make his imprint on the Three Seed Problem. Alas.

---

Ante Up

Because they lost badly on Friday, the Bucks need to win on the final day of the regular season to clinch No. 2. That’s bad news for their opponent, the Orlando Magic, because a loss from them combined with a Pacers win drops O-Town to the play-in, which is a nightmare to wrap up a dream season.

The Knicks barely beat the Nets on Friday, but that kept them alive for No. 2. They get it if they beat the Bulls and the Bucks lose. If both teams wins, New York is No. 3. If they lose and the Bucks and Cavaliers win, New York is No. 4. Maybe an attractive proposal.

Cleveland got a huge win over Indiana on Friday behind a huge Donovan Mitchell game. Timely.

That keeps Cleveland alive for the top three. Except it sounds like Donovan Mitchell and maybe Darius Garland will sit on Sunday, which is a clue that the Cavaliers might want to slip down to the 4-5 series instead of facing the Sixers (as a 3 seed) or the Heat (as a 2 seed). But the opponent is the Hornets, so it might take more intent than that to lose. No offense to Brandon Miller or Grant Williams.

The rest of the East is basically incomprehensible after the Magic and Pacers lost on Friday and the Sixers and Heat won. Joel Embiid appeared to injure his knee at the end of the first half … and then was a +12 in 15 minutes in the second half against Orlando. How do Philly fans manage to ever breathe?

All four teams — Orlando, Indiana, Philadelphia and Miami — can end up anywhere between No. 5 and No. 8 based on results. Only the Magic and Pacers can win themselves into a top-6 seed. Philly needs to win and one of those teams (Magic or Pacers) to lose to get in the top six. Miami needs to win and both of the Magic and Pacers to lose to get in the top six.

---

Like That

The Warriors had a good shot at improving their chances … but the non-Steph Dubs shot 6/21 from deep. Meanwhile, Zion and McCollum continued their run to keep control of the No. 6 seed. They’ll get it with a win over the Lakers or a Phoenix loss to the Wolves.

That the Suns are in position to finish No. 6 at all is a miracle made possible in part by KANGZ. Sacramento led basically the whole game … and crumbled down the stretch.

Kings are 1-6 in their last couple of weeks. They don’t even control their own destiny for the top half of the play-in now. Falling into the play-in after being the No. 3 seed last year wouldn’t have been a disaster. One-and-done in the play-in? That’s a disaster. The Kings need to win and need the Pels to beat L.A. to get No. 8. Otherwise it’s No. 9 or, if the Kings lose to Portland and the Warriors beat the Jazz, No. 10.

The Lakers just narrowly took care of business on Friday. LeBron is eternal.

The Warriors get No. 8 only if they win and the Kings and Lakers both lose. The Lakers get No. 8 with a win over the Pelicans, or losses by the Kings and Warriors. If the Lakers lose, Kings win and Warriors win, L.A. will still be No. 9 over Golden State.

---

Updated Schedule

1 PM EASTERN
Wizards at Celtics — no stakes
Hornets at Cavaliers — important for East 2-4 seeds
Hawks at Pacers — important for East 5-8 seeds
Raptors at Heat — important for East 5-8 seeds
Bulls at Knicks, ESPN — important for East 2-4 seeds
Bucks at Magic — stakes all over the place
Nets at Sixers — important for East 5-8 seeds

3:30 PM EASTERN
Nuggets at Grizzlies — important for West No. 1 race
Suns at Timberwolves — huge stakes all over the place
Lakers at Pelicans, ESPN — important for West No. 6 and West play-in
Mavericks at Thunder — important for West No. 1 race
Pistons at Spurs — Big Vic is not playing so we are not watching
Jazz at Warriors — important for West play-in
Rockets at Clippers — no stakes
Blazers at Kings — important for West play-in

---

Basketball! Be excellent to each other.