The Sixers are proof that we know nothing

Joel Embiid's knee is shot, Paul George remains in and out and a dream summer is anything but.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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Head of a Dog; Edvard Munch; 1930

Joel Embiid, missing time with a foot injury, has suffered swelling in his left knee. He skipped the Sixers’ road trip and will be evaluated in a week. Given the history of Embiid’s knee problems — which cost him a huge chunk of last season and kept him out of the first month of this season — one suspects that 7-10 days will turn into 3-4 weeks. That tends to be the pattern with Embiid, who is a very large human who has suffered a wide range of maladies over the years.

The Sixers are already in deep trouble, two games out of the No. 10 seed, 11 games below .500, 23rd in the league in net rating. Paul George has missed the last two games with a groin injury; he’s missed 14 of the team’s 41 games. Philadelphia got to the halfway point of the season on a 6-game losing streak. Tyrese Maxey might end up as an All-Star despite it all, but he’s clearly being overburdened and having his least efficient season as a result.

Adding insult to injury, the Sixers owe their first-round pick to Oklahoma City (Oklahoma City!) if it’s not in the top six as a result of the Al Horford salary dump in 2020. Based on the current standings, the Sixers would have a 26% probability of keeping the pick and a 74% probability of handing Oklahoma City (Oklahoma City!) a pick between Nos. 8 and 10. Regardless of how bad the Sixers look right now, the odds of them becoming worse than the seven teams behind them — Charlotte, Washington, Portland, Brooklyn, Toronto, New Orleans and Utah — are not good, unless they shut down Embiid and George, which they are almost certainly not going to do.

There is in fact a pretty good chance that despite all this Philadelphia makes the play-in (again) and has a shot at making the playoffs (again), where one suspects they’d end up as the No. 8 seed facing the Cavaliers. Any chance against any real opponent — and Cleveland is as real as they come — would require superstar production from Embiid. Even when Embiid has played, he’s looked stiff and unwell. Expecting even what he offered during the Knicks series last spring — which includes a 50-point screamer — seems beyond reasonability.

This is all to say that this season is indeed shot.