The remarkable pivot of the Miami Heat

Of all the teams that made massive changes in the summer of 2019, no franchise had a turn of fortune quite as successful as the Heat.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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The Rose Walk, Giverny; Claude Monet; 1920-22

Whether the Miami Heat fall Monday night in Denver and watch their season end with a crash, or if they should extend the series to six with another road win, it is now indisputable in my mind that this version of this team is a major success.

Miami won’t have a title in this era, but two Finals berths and three conference finals in four years says it all. And perhaps this is entirely non-controversial, though I presume there are people who argue that — as with the Celtics, who have been closer for longer — if you can’t get to the actual intended finish line that involves hoisting the league championship trophy, you haven’t done anything.

Frankly, it seems like the Heat themselves might feel like that. Jimmy Butler, for one, seems desperately hungry for a ring. But even if he doesn’t get it this year or ever, this has been a sterling reboot of a franchise that was lost in the woods for a half-decade before landing Butler in 2019.

Remember, after LeBron James left the Heat in 2014 to return to the Cavaliers, Miami was out in no man’s land for a while. I had completely forgotten that in 2014-15, the player who led the Heat in total minutes played was Luol Deng. I barely remember Luol Deng on the Heat, let alone leading the team in minutes played one year removed from their last Finals visit of the LeBron era. That team, reeling from the loss of LeBron and only a half-season from Chris Bosh, missed the playoffs.

The next season, 2015-16, gave some false hope as the Bosh, Wade and Goran Dragic-led team won 48 games and almost made the Eastern Conference Finals, where they would have faced LeBron and the Cavaliers in the shadow of the 73-win Warriors. Instead, the Heat were knocked out in a Game 7 by … Kyle Lowry. Go figure.

Ahead of 2016-17, Bosh retired due to his health issues and Wade walked in free agency. This was for obvious reasons seen as the real break from the prior era. This is also the nightmare salary cap summer that resulted in some teams getting Kevin Durant and some teams getting the opportunity to overpay Hassan Whiteside. It’s a miracle that a team led by Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson and Rodney McGruder went .500. But they did. Not enough for the playoffs, but a modern miracle nonetheless.

The Heat added Bam Adebayo in the draft the following offseason, plus gave Dion Waiters a new contract and featured Josh Richardson more heavily. In yet another Erik Spoelstra miracle, this team won 44 games and made the playoffs. Ben Simmons nearly averaged a triple-double as the Sixers won in five. J.J. Redick was the leading scorer in the series.

The Heat had one more season in the cold, 2018-19, after whiffing in free agency. Another big Josh Richardson season. Bam started getting a bigger role, and performed really well in his minutes. But the Heat finished below .500 again and drafted Tyler Herro a week before signing Butler.

Here’s the survey on that 5-year stretch before Butler:

• 209-201 record (51%)

• 3 seasons without the playoffs

• 1 playoff series win

It’s been four years now since acquiring Butler. Assuming Miami loses this series, the survey on the new era will read:

• 181-128 record (59%)

• Playoffs every series

• 2 Finals trips, 3 Conference Finals trips

• 8 playoff series wins

That is a helluva pivot. No team that made major moves in 2019 — and they were a lot of them, including the Nets (KD and Kyrie), Clippers (Kawhi and PG), Lakers (AD), Rockets (Westbrook), Thunder (CP3 and SGA) and Warriors (D’Angelo Russell) — had a more successful pivot point in that summer, though the Lakers and Warriors have won titles in the intervening years due largely to players they already had on their rosters in 2019.

Butler turns 34 before the next NBA season, but by the advanced metrics this season was the best of his career, and until midway through the Boston series he was in the midst of an all-time great playoff run. He stays in ridiculous shape. He should have a few more high-production seasons left. Adebayo is entering his prime, Tyler Herro is a key missing ingredient in this series and the Heat have a malleable salary cap sheet and one of the most brilliant front offices in the league.

This era of the Miami Heat has been a raging success, and it’s not over.