The race for the East No. 6 seed is much bigger than that

Everything is so tight in the East that the play-in avoidance race and real good seedings are simultaneously at stake.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

A Rose, Thomas Pollock Anshutz, 1907

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This is the latest on in our series of looks at the most competitive stretch races in the NBA.

The race for the No. 6 seed in the NBA’s Eastern Conference is a bit of a misnomer. The team currently in the No. 6 spot has a real opportunity to get higher: the Celtics sit just a game behind the slumping No. 5 Cavaliers and just 1.5 games out of the No. 3 seed. Boston was surely for a moment thrilled to climb to No. 6; now, it may expect more.

That proximity and the fact that the Raptors are just a game behind Boston mean that there are five teams within 2.5 games of the No. 3 seed and the No. 7 seed. And obviously, the difference between winning the No. 3 seed and the No. 7 seed is enormous, even with these teams seemingly evenly matched.

Why?

• The No. 3 seed will have home court in the first round.

• The No. 7 seed has to win an elimination game to make the playoffs.

And we haven’t even talked about the Nets. Brooklyn is 3.5 games out of the No. 6 seed. Kevin Durant is not yet back. Ben Simmons is not yet cleared to play. Kyrie Irving can not yet play home games. When at full power, you’d expect Brooklyn to be capable of running off a major win streak. But there’s no sense of when exactly they’ll be at full strength, and whether it will be soon enough to make a play at escaping the play-in. There’s also the matter of the fact that Brooklyn probably doesn’t really fear a play-in, even against Boston, Cleveland or Toronto (the three most likely teams they’d face). Further, Brooklyn is likely to maintain No. 8 over the chasing Hornets (two games back) and Hawks (2.5 games back), which means that if they did lose a play-in game they’d have a second shot.

Because of the specter of Brooklyn, I would surmise that Cleveland, Boston and Toronto — and for that matter the 3- and 4-seeds Philadelphia and Milwaukee — want no part of the play-in. So there is high motivation for these other teams to press hard for No. 6 at minimum.

What’s the outlook? First, injuries:

• The Celtics are healthy for the first time seemingly in years.

• Fred VanVleet is sore but isn’t expected to miss much time, if any.

• Darius Garland missed the Cavaliers’ first post-All-Star game, which is a little concerning. Caris LeVert is out 1-2 weeks.

• The Bucks are still without Brook Lopez.

• James Harden is playing this weekend.

• We discussed Brooklyn’s issues.

Cleveland is the red flag in this category, excluding the Nets, whose uniforms right now should be togas fashioned out of red flags.

What about home-road splits? Only one team has a significant difference ahead: Cleveland will play five more home games than road games the rest of the way. The Cavs have 23 games remaining, and only nine are away from Ohio. So that’s a real nice counter to the injury concern.

Tiebreakers and remaining strength of schedule are all mixed. How the teams play — especially the two teams with major new pieces (Philly and Brooklyn) should outweigh schedule issues. Momentum is clearly on the side of Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. But that can shift.

This is all to say that there’s no telling how this is going to go. If I had to predict a final order for these teams right now, given how they’ve performed this season, I’d go:

3. Philadelphia

4. Boston

5. Milwaukee

6. Cleveland

7. Toronto

8. Brooklyn

That would set up some crazy playoff series and play-in games, assuming Miami and Chicago finish 1-2 in some order. Everyone wants Philly-Boston or Philly-Brooklyn or Brooklyn-Boston in the first round, and Milwaukee-Cleveland or Milwaukee-Toronto would be amazing fun for match-up reasons. But I think this is how it will go. If Brooklyn does end up in the 7-8 slots while getting healthy and eligible and in game shape … hoo boy, the unlucky 1-2 seed that faces them in the first round is going to be UNHAPPY.

This is all to say that the final six weeks of the regular season and the playoffs in the East should be absolutely wild.