The Nuggets' peril
Jamal Murray gets a huge new extension.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
Above Eternal Peace; Isaac Levitan; 1894
One of the last lingering threads of the NBA offseason was whether the Denver Nuggets would reach an extension agreement with Jamal Murray before their deadline, avoiding letting the point guard reach unrestricted free agency next summer. And indeed they did: the Nuggets gave Murray a 4-year, $208 million extension, which means he’s locked up through 2028-29.
Murray is a perfect stylistic running mate to Nikola Jokic — a good passer and creator out of the pick-and-roll, and an excellent shooter — and not inking him to an extension would have raised more questions than signing him does. But given what’s happened with Murray over the past six months and the tiny explosions that seem to be popping up around the Nuggets, it’s not a clear-cut win that locking up a cornerstone player can be.
There are real concerns for the Nuggets here.
Murray was atrocious for most of the losing series against the Timberwolves in the playoffs last season, and probably should have been suspended for a game after throwing an item onto the court during play. He frankly wasn’t that good against the Lakers in the first round either, a note lost to history after Murray’s two game-winners in the series.
Murray shot 40% from the floor in the series, but 100% on shots poised to rip out the Lakers’ hearts. You gotta respect it.
Murray followed up the rough playoff run with an even rougher Olympic run. Coming off the bench, he scored 24 points over four games. He shot 9/26 (35%) from the floor for the tournament. His inability to lift the bench to maintain big leads in the group stage led Canada to draw eventual silver medalist France in the quarterfinals instead of a softer opponent; Murray’s failure to contribute in the quarters sent the Canadians home without sniffing their first men’s basketball medal since 1936.
Was this all tied to an injury? I suspect that without a contract extension in hand, and knowing that he’d start the tournament coming off the bench, which Murray cited as uncomfortable and a reason he underperformed — given all that, if Murray was really banged up, there’s no way he plays in Paris. Murray was clearly less than 100% in the playoffs, but that’s not been particularly rare for him. He came off a major knee surgery just a couple of years ago — it’s going to happen.
What’s more concerning is where Murray’s ceiling hovers. Here’s what I wrote about him in the wake of the Olympic flame-out.
[It] sticks in my mind that Murray is the second-best player on a team with a championship and expectations for more, yet he’s never even risen to the level of a top-tier All-Star snub and he’s never made All-NBA. His playoff performances do speak for themselves — there are way more hits than misses there — but he simply wasn’t good enough for Denver this postseason and he simply wasn’t good enough for Canada this tournament.
Denver has never made a deep playoff run without Murray playing at a very high level. He was electric in the bubble; the Nuggets made the Western Conference Finals. He was fantastic in 2023; the Nuggets won the championship. Denver didn’t get past the second round in either of the postseasons he missed due to injury, or last season with Murray struggling. He’s that important to the Nuggets despite being wholly undecorated as a star.
This extends to the full Nuggets core. Denver has the unequivocal Best Player Alive, and not a single other player who has made even a single All-Star Game or All-NBA team. (We’re not counting a 35-year-old Russell Westbrook as a part of the team’s core.) Murray is owed $240 million over the next five years and has apparently never received a single All-NBA vote. Michael Porter Jr. has $90 million over three years remaining on his max deal. He has never received a single All-NBA vote. Aaron Gordon, next up for a huge payday with a $21 million player option for 2025-26, has never received a single All-NBA vote. For these three supporting stars for Jokic, the biggest individual honors of their careers are Gordon’s two runners-up awards for the Dunk Contest (he was robbed in 2020) and MPJ’s second-team All-Seeding Games honor.
Those three players, warts and all, are perfect fits with Nikola Jokic, and Jokic hides a lot of warts. This was a brilliantly built team briefly derailed by Murray’s injury right after the Gordon trade, one which then got back on track with a championship. Now is the moment it gets tricky: they lost the repeat attempt well short of the Finals, and all these key, imperfect pieces are increasingly expensive. The cost of the roster already led the Nuggets to let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the vital fifth starter, walk for nothing.
Can you pay a Never All-Star a max deal through his prime? Denver decided they could. You certainly can’t do that twice, even with the best player on the planet capped at the individual max salary, can you? How much can you now commit to Gordon and Porter without getting into luxury tax hell, or without restricting your ability to add talent if these young players around them (or the Westbrooks that float through) don’t provide enough?
I often wonder why Tim Connelly, the architect of this so-called perfect team, really left for Minnesota before seeing the team win a ring. Was it truly a financial offer he couldn’t refuse from one of the most hapless franchises in the league? Did he see the fuse burning in Denver, knowing the core he built was good for two or three championship attempts max once Murray got healthy but that this roster — so lopsided in talent with Jokic at the head — was unsustainable for an ownership group the nature of the Kroenkes?
These are perilous times for the Nuggets. Jokic just might lead them to another championship anyways. Murray might go 16/56 from the floor in the playoffs, but with all 16 makes being game-winners. Gordon might end up the most impactful never All-Star in this era of the league. Or, this could be another one of those teams that won a single championship and burnt out.
Given that the Nuggets had never won a title before 2023, it will have been worth it for many, many fans and team employees. One imagines there’s nothing quite like a parade to bring clarity and joy. (One imagines.) But having a player the caliber of Jokic makes you greedy, and if it ends up being only 2023 in the end, it’ll be impossible for many — especially the players, the front office, the coaching staff, ownership — to look back without some level of disappointment.
That chapter isn’t inked yet. After signing that contract, Murray holds the pen. Let’s see how the rest is written.
Mavs TV
As expected, the Mavericks announced a deal to broadcast their non-national TV games over the air throughout the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Dallas and New Orleans broke out of their Bally Sports contracts as a part of the Diamond Sports bankruptcy proceedings, and both teams are turning to local TV to fill the gap … not a direct subscription streaming option. That’s not surprising for the Pelicans. It’s a little surprising for the Mavericks, who have a huge, dedicated fan base and a prominent minority owner in Mark Cuban who made his fortune on internet broadcasting.
In any case, fans in Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, Plano, Tyler, Abilene and other North Texas cities will be able to watch most Mavericks games live with just a digital TV antenna. Recording games and getting them on-demand will be trickier unless the network negotiates itself into the most popular live TV streaming platforms like YouTube TV, Hulu With Live TV, Sling and Fubo, which Mavericks fans will still need for national TV games and the playoffs.
In my view, the Utah Jazz are doing this the best. Their non-national (LOL) games are available on an over-the-air network available for free to most Utahns with a digital antenna or who have the network in their cable or streaming provider of choice. (It doesn’t look like YouTube TV or Sling carry it currently.) But local fans in Utah and parts of Idaho and Wyoming can instead subscribe to Jazz+ for $125 for the season to get all non-national (again, LOL) games. This is similar to ClipperVision and at the same price point, except the Clippers don’t also have their non-national games over the air. Those are still on Bally Sports.
Later this month, I’m hoping to pull together a guide to watching your favorite team this season. We’re in a weird zone right now.
That’s all today. Back on Wednesday. I have a survey of the top six in the East brewing. Be excellent to each other.
So, the Nuggets didn’t repeat:
-- Neither has any other team in the past half-decade. Where’s the concern for Milwaukee?
-- They did have a better record last year but then ran out of gas.
-- Remember Jamal had 35 in Game 7. Jokic had 34, but the other players missed their chance to step up. Hoping the team continues to build trust and delivers more cohesive play.
-- Nuggets lost the free throw disparity 30-16 in Game 7, when they lose by 8.
-- Bruce and Uncle Jeff left and haven’t been the same players. KCP could follow a similar path without playing next to Jokic—good luck in Orlando. Look at Gary Harris, who’s in the same spot as KCP.
-- KCP’s Klutch agency, after their top client has been consistently embarrassed by the Nuggets, might have had reasons the deal didn’t work out from their side.
-- Do the Nuggets have enough to win it again? I think so, but a small deal could push them over since they’re still under the apron.
-- Jokic is our Duncan; Jamal is our Ginobili (who didn’t rack up All-Star games but delivered in big moments), and AG and Porter are excellent role players. Let’s see what Braun, Strawther, and Watson can do.
-- Imagine Jokic getting Westbrook a title when Durant, Harden, LeBron, and AD couldn’t.
-- The Kroenkes have won titles in the NBA, NHL, and NFL, and Arsenal could be next.
Jamal’s a hero worthy of mythology—enjoy the show.
-- Name 20 better playoff performers than Jamal over the past five years -- even with him missing two years. Dude is easily worth the max.
The Nuggets have put all of their faith into Jamal Murray, and it’s time for him to take the next step to consistency and continually play up to his contract. Letting KCP go was just cheap behavior by the FO and ownership, and that just sucks.