The not-so-sleeping giant in New Orleans
The Pelicans' success isn't exactly a surprise, but it's worth special notice.
Good morning. Usual Monday disclaimer: this newsletter is too long for most email clients, so click the headline to open it in a browser. Let’s basketball.
Horseman Attacked By a Giant Snake, Henry Fuseli, 1800
Here are the top five teams in the NBA in terms of year-over-year net rating improvement. In other words, the five teams whose 2022-23 net rating (points per 100 possessions minus opponent points per 100 possessions) shows the biggest improvement over their 2021-22 net rating.
Sacramento Kings: +9 (-5.2 to +3.8)
Portland Trail Blazers: +8.4 (-9.1 to -0.7)
New Orleans Pelicans: +7.7 (-0.8 to +6.9)
Oklahoma City Thunder: +6.9 (-8 to -1.1)
Cleveland Cavaliers: +4.2 (+2.1 to +6.3)
In the Kings, Blazers and Thunder, you have teams that were rather awful last season and now are not. (The Kings are quite good — No. 6 in the league in net rating — while the Blazers and Thunder are about average.) The Cavaliers made a huge offseason move to get Donovan Mitchell and the team’s improvement is evident.
The Pelicans are the team that stands out to me here, though. New Orleans was roughly average last season, and now stands as elite by the metrics this year. The Pels are No. 3 in net rating through 23 games (28% of the season) behind only the Celtics and Suns, each of whom have won their conference within the past two seasons. New Orleans is up to No. 2 in the West standings after beating the Nuggets on Sunday.
New Orleans’ enormous improvement isn’t exactly a surprise, so that’s part of the reason the Pelicans have flown a bit under the radar. Sacramento and Portland missed the play-in last year, the Blazers on purpose with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum traded. That the Kings rate as one of the best teams in the league is a real surprise. The Blazers are less surprising because they’ve been around this zone in prior years; the Thunder being totally competent is an eye-opener.
Focusing just on the element of surprise, though, misses that the Pelicans’ improvement took them from a somewhat below-average team to a hellaciously good team. Because they made the playoffs via the play-in, it’s easy to forget that New Orleans went 36-46 last season, and that’s with having McCollum for the home stretch after the February trade. David Griffin and the Pels front office didn’t make any major offseason moves, but they didn’t need to with a full season of McCollum on the docket and the return of Zion Williamson expected. They felt that was enough to launch New Orleans up the standings. They were right.
Two things stand out about the Pelicans right now. The first is that the defense is massively improved despite the fact that the two major roster adjustments (a full season of McCollum and Zion’s return) don’t figure to improve defensive metrics. And yet, New Orleans sits at No. 3 in defensive rating this season. Credit Willie Green and his staff for designing a defense this personnel can excel in. And also, credit Herb Jones. He’s a game-changer on that end.
The second thing that stands out about this team is that it has barely been at full strength all year, and it’s still 15-8. McCollum missed four games. Brandon Ingram has missed eight games. Zion missed five games. Jones missed six games. The only starter who hasn’t missed any time is (no offense) the least essential, Jonas Valanciunas. He’s down to 23 minutes per game this season as Green uses lineups with Zion or Larry Nance Jr. at center.
The Zion-BI-C.J.-Herb foursome has played 144 minutes together this season. Unsurprisingly, they are doing very well together (+12 per 100 possessions). One presumes that as the team gets healthy we’ll see more and more of that foursome — with JV as the start of games, with Trey Murphy III or Jose Alvarado or LNJ depending on matchups.
That Griffin and the front office have three rotation-worthy second-year players in Jones, Murphy and Alvarado — one of whom is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate — despite not picking in the lottery in 2021 is outrageous. They have another rotation player from the 2022 draft in Dyson Daniels. Whatever qualms people like me had with the transactions that lost Lonzo Ball in exchange for Devonte Graham and Steven Adams for Valanciunas, those transactions have ended up working out just fine and the front office has nailed every other opportunity to improve the team. This is the fruit of that labor, and it’s all ripe, right now.
The Pelicans are here and they look like they are going to stay for a while. Get comfortable.
Scores
FRIDAY
Wizards 116, Hornets 117 — Well this is tough.
Heat 120, Celtics 116 (OT) — So, Jimmy Butler is back. And Miami needed every bit of Jimmy’s magic to overcome the Celtics, even with Jayson Tatum having a rare off night.
Lakers 133, Bucks 129 — What a game! Huge win for the Lakers behind Anthony Davis (44-10 with 3 blocks).
Russell Westbrook continued his strong play off the bench, and had some additional contributions in trolling Giannis Antetokounmpo and the officials on the free throw line.
Sure, Giannis picked up the point on the redo there, but he was called for 10 seconds later in the game. Westbrook’s pleas to the officials worked out.
Sixers 109, Grizzlies 117 — What an incredible freaking block from Jaren Jackson Jr.
By the way Memphis is calling JJJ the “Block Panther” now.
Pelicans 117, Spurs 99 — Good lord Zion.
Rockets 122, Suns 121 — Another 41 points for Devin Booker; that’s 136 over three games. But Phoenix left the defense in the locker room and Houston picked up a win with a metric ton of free throws, 30 points from Jalen Green and some good bench play. And uh, this final possession.
Suns go 0/4 with a chance to win. Brutal finish.
Pacers 119, Jazz 139 — A brief reminder that Walker Kessler was also included in the Rudy Gobert trade. Kessler had 20-11 for the Jazz in this game.
SATURDAY
Kings 123, Clippers 96 — Second straight beatdown for the Kangz.
Domantas Sabonis (24 points on 10/11 shooting) shredded Ivica Zubac in a battle of the most underrated centers in the West (no comment from Kevon Looney or Jakob Poeltl) but the bigger story for Sacramento is a potential breakout for Keegan Murray: 23 points on 67% True Shooting. The Kings have been doing all this with Murray struggling to find his way amid family issues and normal rookie stress.
The Clippers fall to 3-5 without Paul George.
Magic 108, Raptors 121 — Bol Bol.
Thunder 135, Timberwolves 128 — Dirty stuff from Rudy Gobert, sweeping Kenrich Williams’ leg and all. Gobert was ejected for this.
33 in the win for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Rockets 101, Warriors 120 — Ladies and gentlefolk, Jordan Poole.
Blazers 116, Jazz 111 — Portland picks up a much needed win, its second during Damian Lillard’s 7-game absence. And it came on an Anfernee Simons breakout:
Simons had already had a couple of big scoring nights during Lillard’s absence, including 38 in an overtime win against the Knicks. But he’d had some tough shooting nights, too. The Blazers were 10-6 when Lillard went out and sat 12-11 on the eve of his return.
There was a perplexing no-call in this game. Probably could have been a Flagrant 1!
SUNDAY
Nuggets 106, Pelicans 121 — Um, Jose Alvardo is out here scoring 38 points against good opponents. Folks.
Suns 133, Spurs 95 — 11 straight losses for San Antonio. Here’s a sick Victor Wembanyama highlight.
Cavaliers 81, Knicks 92 — Did these teams forget to play one of the quarters?
Lakers 130, Wizards 119 — Anthony Davis revenge tour continues. 55 and 17 in this one. 55 and 17.
But we’re here for Dunk of the Year candidate Daniel Gafford’s Matrix dunk.
Dude busting out Half Wheel pose in the middle of a fast break. Sheesh.
The Lakers have won eight of 10 to surge into 12th place.
Bulls 101, Kings 110 — Third straight loss for Chicago, who sits in 12th in the East. Is the front office really going to let this stand?
Malik Monk is killing it for Sacramento over the past month or so.
Pacers 100, Blazers 116 — Damian Lillard is back (20-4-6 in 32 minutes, team-best +30). Indiana is 1-4 on their Western road trip with Golden State and Minnesota to go. Their only win was that Andrew Nembhard shocker in L.A. They’ve lost each of the other four games by at least 14 points.
Schedule
All times Eastern.
Clippers at Hornets, 7
Bucks at Magic, 7
Thunder at Hawks, 7:30
Celtics at Raptors, 7:30
Sixers at Rockets, 8
Heat at Grizzlies, 8
Suns at Mavericks, 8:30, NBA TV
Pacers at Warriors, 10
Links
40 games each for the 12 WNBA teams next season.
Reports that Nate McMillan got annoyed with Trae Young skipping shootaround to get shoulder treatment on Friday, so he told him he’d be missing the game or coming off the bench. So Trae went home. Not great, Bob. ($, The Athletic)
I hesitate to link this on a Monday morning but it’s important to be aware of what American society is currently facing with vicious anti-Semitism getting more play than it has in decades. This is what anti-Semites are saying in front of Nets games outside of Barclays Center.
Marc Spears got Draymond Green to talk about Jordan Poole and some other stuff.
Vincent Goodwill on LeBron’s odd media moment and the Jerry Jones photo.
Marc Stein on the uptick in travelling calls this season. ($)
Be excellent to each other.
Don't hesitate to link and call-out anti-semitism. Silence is complicity. Keep up the great work Tom.
You and Vincent Goodwill both have missed the point on Lebron James' media callout (Goodwill because he wrote that nonsense and you because you linked to it). For comparison, you say "vicious anti-Semitism" is what American society is currently facing and I agree. But when James asks journalists to play fair in their reporting of the equally vicious racism that Black people are facing in the same American society--and he was very clear about that point--you have nothing to say besides noting that it's "odd"..??.. YOU are the problem.