The NBA and media companies are negotiating over your money

Just a reminder on the stakes involved here.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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The Woman at the Well; Diego Rivera; 1913

I last wrote at length about the NBA’s media rights machinations back in February. (At least, that’s the last time I remember writing about it. When you publish a daily column, things tend to get lost in memory.) At that point, as the NBA’s current negotiations were bubbling at a simmer, the focus was on the announcement of a new sports-focused streaming bundle from Disney (the ESPN networks and ABC), Fox Sports and Warner Bros. Discovery (TNT and NBA TV). The purpose of this product, launching in late 2024 or so, would be to allow sports-centric fans to get sports content they wanted without subscribing to cable television or one of the larger streaming bundles like YouTube TV or Hulu With Live TV. This product would be especially relevant for NBA and MLB fans given that those leagues have media deals with the companies involved. Under that package, you’d be able to get every game available on ESPN, ESPN2, TNT, NBA TV and ABC. That’s all the nationally televised games during the regular season and, most importantly, the entire playoffs. League Pass would still be available for non-national games. The only hiccup — a major one, to be sure — would be accessing the local team’s non-national games for local fans. The biggest riddle remained unsolved.

And now for the big twist: it appears that new Frankensports package, which I will not follow custom and call “Spulu,” will be a one-stop-shop for NBA fans for exactly one season, assuming it launches in time for the 2024-25 campaign. Because based on multiple reports, Amazon is taking a chunk of the NBA’s media rights — including potentially some playoff games — for its Prime Video service. It sounds too based on both published reports and rumblings that NBC, owned by Comcast and owner of the Peacock streaming service, has the advantage over TNT’s Warner Bros. Discovery for the third media rights slot the NBA is seeking. There are murmurs that the league could split its rights four ways; I’m deeply skeptical, unless the fourth company becomes a de facto home for NBA TV and League Pass only. While the WNBA has split its media rights into a high number of buckets, I just don’t think the NBA is going to double the number of companies it works with on this.

The upshot is that if NBC does beat out WBD, the Frankensports package does nothing for NBA fans beyond 2024-25. (New media deals kick in for the 2025-26 season.) The only relevant family of networks would be the ESPN channels, which fans will be able to get directly from Disney at some point. I assume that will actually happened by Fall 2025, though you never know with Disney.

Even if WBD does remain in the picture and NBC falls short — sorry John Tesh and Mike Tirico — the Frankensports app won’t have everything, because of the Amazon package. And here’s the rub: not even full cable T.V. subscribers will be in the clear come 2025-26, because as far as I know no cable company in the nation includes Prime Video in their packages. The base price for ad-supported Prime Video without an Amazon Prime membership is currently $9 a month. And these subscriptions don’t typically get cheaper over time.

So the base price of entry for the normal basketball fan in two years will go up at least $72 for the 2025-26 season (eight months at $9 per month). If NBC gets the third piece of the pie, that will require either a cable or streaming package that includes NBC and Peacock access or a standalone Peacock subscription, currently $6 per month. And you of course will need access to the ESPN family of networks, which (again) doesn’t currently have a standalone product but is available on a range of streaming packages and every cable package. Sling TV is $40 per month to get ESPN and a bunch of other networks. The other major players (YouTube TV and Hulu With Live TV [I dislike that product name greatly]) are in the $75-90 per month range. Whither NBA TV? One presumes the rights to run it revert back to the league if the company that currently runs it — WBD — is out of the next deal. One presumes the NBA would partner with NBC or Disney to produce it. But it’s totally unclear. No one who writes the insider stories on the future of NBA media rights ever discusses the fate of NBA TV.

And then of course there are local games. Those streaming packages like YouTube TV often include access via the local regional sports network, but not always. Some teams have started to roll out standalone streaming packages for local fans. Some teams are reverting back to freely available local networks to broaden the audience. Some teams are saddled with RSNs owned by companies going bankrupt. Some teams have RSNs that don’t play nice with cable or streaming companies, shutting wide swaths of local fans out of the picture. In any case, needing to get local games does not make any of this any cheaper for fans. At best it’s a wash. At worst it’s another monthly bill.

And now, finally, let’s get to the point, which is this:

The NBA is squeezing these media companies for more money to put in the pockets of its team owners and players. Based on current information and current pricing, it will be more expensive for nearly every NBA fan in the United States to get access to watch live NBA games once this new deal kicks in. There is a high likelihood that prices of those services will increase, if not as soon as the NBA is added then soon thereafter. These media deals are a positive development for the people who earn paychecks directly from the NBA. That money eventually, one way or another, comes from us: the fans.

Sure, the fan experience could improve with easier access to more games, perhaps better scheduling of high-interest matches, new on-air voices and upgraded presentations. (Amazon’s X-ray vision for who is sitting courtside? Civil liberties appear to be dead anyways.) Maybe League Pass will finally be fixed under this. But all that comes at a cost.

The more companies involved in the NBA’s media rights, the more opportunities there are for media companies to invoice fans for the right to access games. The higher the price the NBA commands from those media companies, the higher the price those media companies need to pass onto us. That’s what is going on here. In all the breathless reporting and nostalgia and gossip, don’t forget that.

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Scores