The current state of FIBA World Cup qualification

The tourney is next summer.

Sep 01, 2022

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Typus Orbis Terrarum, Abraham Ortelius, 1570

First thing’s first: the FIBA Women’s World Cup begins in late September in Sydney. Twelve teams involved including host Australia, the United States, Canada, China, Japan, France and a few others. We’ll cover it once the WNBA playoffs are over. Did you hear that Lauren Jackson is making a comeback to play for the Opals?!

The men’s FIBA World Cup is next summer. Earlier this week, I lamented the state of FIBA’s whole thing given that the qualification window came and went like a breeze, essentially becoming a warm-up for playing-for-pride continental tournaments like EuroBasket and AmeriCup.

Good Morning It's Basketball

FIBA is still not on the radar

Good morning. Let’s basketball. Ball Game on the Piazza Santa Maria Novella in Florence; Stradanus; 1561-62 July and August are a relatively slow time for American sports. The NBA is in its offseason. Baseball is warming up for its pennant races. Neither pro or college football is yet in full swing. Hockey is out of season. The WNBA is in its playoffs, but we know that the WNBA is still a rising league, not something claiming a whole lot of real estate on the conversation shows or sports website home pages or the timeline. There’s a gap between the French Open and Wimbledon and the U.S. Open (which just began…

2 years ago · 6 likes · 4 comments · Tom Ziller

But let me do my part to demystify the qualification process. There’s a good bit at stake in the final two qualification windows in November and February. (Yes, those are during the NBA and Euroleague seasons.)

The tournament field is 32 deep. You don’t get an automatic bid for winning the prior World Cup or the Olympic tournament. (Spain won the 2019 World Cup. Team USA won in the Olympics.) But hosts usually get spots. The tournament will be held in Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia. FIBA awarded Japan and the Philippines automatic bids; Indonesia will not be playing.

The other 30 slots come from these qualification groups sorted by continent. The top 12 teams in European qualification get in. Then there’s six from Asia and Oceania (not counting the two hosts), seven from the Americas and five from Africa.

Here’s where we’re at in all these battles.

Africa

The second group stage is halfway done for Africa, with Ivory Coast having already qualified for the World Cup, even if they lose all of the February games. South Sudan is in really good position to advance, as well. The top two in each group make it to the World Cup, plus the better third place team.

Among the other nations: Angola, Egypt and Senegal are currently in decent spots, with Cape Verde, Nigeria and Tunisia looming. Nigeria is really going to suffer from not having NBA players or Mike Brown in February. Though given the federation’s well-established issues that might have helped anyway.

Asia & Oceania

The top three in each remaining group get bids here, and if the Philippines or Japan finish in the top three then a bid goes to No. 4. Japan is glad to have its automatic bid given that it would otherwise be on the outside looking in right now.

New Zealand and Lebanon have already qualified for the World Cup from their group, leaving one spot open for Jordan, Saudi Arabia or India. I can safely say that it will not be India, who went 0-4 in the first group stage but advance to the second group stage because it was in the same group as South Korea, who withdrew due to COVID-19. India is currently 0-6 in qualifiers with an average scoring margin of -29.6. Yikes.

In the other group, no one has qualified yet, despite Australia sitting undefeated. The Boomers should definitely make it in, and the other two spots will likely go to two of China, Iran and surprising Kazakhstan. They’ve never appeared in the World Cup.

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Americas

No one has won a bid just yet, but Canada is very likely to be in (currently 8-0) and Venezuela and the United States are strong probables as well. Assuming those three get in, the last four slots will be spread among these contenders: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Puerto Rico. Colombia has a non-zero chance, while Panama and Bahamas are most likely not making it. (Sorry, Buddy Hield.)

Canada has looked incredible in qualification. It’s their time!

Team USA has not used a single high-level NBA player in qualification, not even in the July or August windows. There have been some close games and a loss (to Mexico last November). But overall, the gambit to use G League level players with some consistent coaching — it’s worked. Steve Kerr will be taking over once the World Cup comes around.

Europe

The big show will 12 bids. One has already been claimed. And yes, it’s FINLAND.

There are currently four groups of six, and the top three finishers in each group moves on. Here’s the breakdown.

GROUP I: Brutal group. No bids claimed yet. This group has Greece, Serbia and Turkey … and yet right this second it’s Latvia and Belgium in position to advance along with Greece. Kristaps Porzingis in the World Cup at the expense of Nikola Jokic, what a dream! Serbia will play Turkey and Britain in November in a crucial pair of games. Greece takes on Latvia and Belgium in that window. Eep. Turkey has Belgium and Serbia and miiiiight be missing the World Cup. Britain is in shambles. Wild stuff.

GROUP J: Finland is in, Germany is one win away … but faces Finland and Slovenia in November, so nothing is guaranteed yet. If it goes to February, the Germans get Sweden and Finland then. Slovenia’s in pretty good shape though dropping a game to Germany last week WITH Luka Doncic playing is pretty brutal. But it would take Sweden, Israel or Estonia going on a crazy run, so Slovenia should survive. Which means Luka might be in his first ever World Cup next summer.

GROUP K: Lithuania will likely get a bid, and it’s hard to imagine France missing out despite two losses in qualification so far. If those two get in, these nations will be fighting for a single slot: Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

GROUP L: Spain and Italy are tied at the top of the group, with Spain having lost to Georgia (!) in early July. But assuming those two advance, the last spot will likely be decided between Iceland and Georgia. They have a big battle on November 11 in Reykjavik. Who’s going?

There you have it. We’ll follow up again in November, when very few players most of us have heard of will be deciding whether household names like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be in the biggest global tournament next summer. Can’t wait!

Scores

Sun 77, Sky 85 (Series tied 1-1) — The Chicago offense found a way to break the vaunted Connecticut defense, and you’ll be unsurprised to learn it flowed from Candace Parker scoring buckets (22 points on 8/13 shooting) and Courtney Vandersloot making plays (eight assists, one turnover). Kahleah Copper got out in transition a bit. Allie Quigley hit some threes. Emma Meesseman was efficient on her touches. The game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates.

Connecticut had one of those huge Jonquel Jones games that, when it’s happening, feels like it should be happening every night. The rest of the offense didn’t really have it, much to Chicago’s credit of course. DeWanna Bonner, Courtney Williams and Bri Jones combined to shoot 6/25. They are too important to the Sun offense for Connecticut to survive that.

But the series is now headed up to Uncasville, Game 3 on Sunday.

Storm 73, Aces 78 (Series tied 1-1) — Good lord this series!

A’ja Wilson: 33-13 with three blocks with 72% True Shooting. Breanna Stewart: 32-7 with three blocks with 63% True Shooting. You’ll watch Stewart make some absurd turnaround jumper and Ryan Ruocco will point out that the Storm haven’t lost a playoff game that Stewart played in since 2018. And then Wilson will come down with an unstoppable paint touch, or a masterpiece defensive possession, and you’ll be like “Damn, one of these two is definitely the best women’s basketball player in the world but I can’t decide which one!” Incredible rivalry. More more more, please.

Chelsea Gray, Queen of Daggers, continues her incredible playoff run (19-7-7). The Las Vegas crowd was electric. The series is tied. No one would complain if this was a best-of-17 series. Game 3 is Sunday. Must watch stuff if you like basketball. If you don’t like basketball, you have a very interesting and quizzical taste in newsletters!

Schedule

EuroBasket 2022 is streaming on ESPN+ for American fans most of the day. The two biggest games: Lithuania vs. Slovenia at 11:05 AM Eastern and France vs. Germany at 2:20 PM Eastern. And then early Friday morning the FIBA AmeriCup starts. A little less star power there.

Links

Rest in peace, Steve. The sweetest person when we crossed paths at SB Nation, and an absolutely brilliant football mind who constantly went deeper than anyone.

Dan Devine on RJ Barrett becoming the star the Knicks are trying to trade him for.

M.A. Voelpel on the A’ja vs. Breanna battle.

Serena!

Stephen Curry finished his degree at Davidson, so the college held a combination graduation ceremony and Hall of Fame induction for their most favorite alum. Cool stuff.

Alex Rodriguez might be too broke to pony up for his piece of the Timberwolves. Sad state.

I’m going to go ahead and link to ESPN Insider’s top 25 players in EuroBasket piece EVEN THOUGH they put Domantas Sabonis below Franz Wagner and Dario Saric. ($)

Andre Miller is going to coach the Nuggets’ G League team, which is cool.

More Dan Devine on the 2023 NBA free agents trying to secure the bag this season.

The NBA is dropping its League Pass subscription costs. The full enchilada package will be $130. The league also claims subscription numbers grew by a lot last season. Given that I imagine the auto-renew numbers for League Pass are high, the NBA must REALLY be bullish about gaining new subscribers. I think the analysis about gambling being a factor is smart.

Wait wait wait hold up. Baseball is fun again?