The Cavaliers are a problem (and might have a problem)
The top of the East is looking better and better. Include Cleveland in that class ... if they can keep this pace up.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
The Boating Party; Mary Cassatt; 1893-94
Six weeks ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers were sitting at 13-12 and had just learned they would be without both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland for a while. Speculation swirled that Donovan Mitchell, the team’s best player, didn’t plan to stay in Ohio beyond his current contract, with continues through 2024-25, leading to widespread suggestions that the Cavaliers could or should start shopping him to recoup some of what was given up to acquire him from Utah. J.B. Bickerstaff was never confirmed to be on the hot seat, but it certainly wasn’t a stretch to imagine that he’d be the first head coach fired this season.
When all of this happened, I wrote about the fact that the Cavaliers had a cupcake schedule during Garland’s expected absence, and that removing one of the two big men and one of the two lead guards on the roster, against middling opposition, might actually clean up the team and teach us what the roster’s structural limitations are.
And just like that: Cleveland went 14-4 without the two starters as Jarrett Allen played the best basketball of his career, Mitchell flourished and role players stepped up in a big way. On Monday, Mobley returned to action and the Cavaliers beat the hottest team in the West, the L.A. Clippers, by double-digits.
Mitchell was very productive against a good defense: 28 points on 57% eFG, 12 assists, 2 steals, 2 turnovers. The assists were high-quality, too: seven of them were on three-pointers (the pleasure of employing Max Strus!) and the other five were for shots in the restricted area. Dunks and threes, dunks and threes.
JA was excellent, too, with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Preserving this high-level Jarrett Allen play with Mobley back is critical and … questionable. One salve for this is to stagger the two players as much as possible, which Bickerstaff did on Monday. But that worked because Mobley, just returning from injury, played just 21 minutes. When he’s back up around 30 minutes per game, you’re going to have more overlap.
On Monday, the two bigs overlapped for just nine minutes over two stints (to start each half). The Cavaliers were -4 in those stretches. The Cavs were +15 in the 27 minutes JA played without Mobley; the Cavs were -1 in the 12 minutes Mobley played without JA. Bickerstaff didn’t have to go a single play without either, which is good, because Tristan Thompson has been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. (Would have hated to see him playing natty.) (That is my one rude comment allowed for today. Bummer I wasted it on a non-Laker.) (Tristan Thompson: spiritual forever Laker?)
For the season, the duo is +18 in 313 minutes, or +3 per 48. Mobley without Allen is +9 in 413 minutes, or +1 per 48. Allen without Mobley is +119 in 879 minutes, or +6.5 per 48. Those numbers reflect the eye test: the team is good but wonky with both dudes on the court together, and pretty good with either of them on the floor. Of course, every iteration looks better with Mitchell and Strus on the floor, too.
The Cavaliers are trying to win, so they can’t trade Allen in the next few days. He’s way too good and way too valuable, unless the team can land a high-level wing and a back-up big. The Cavaliers also cannot trade Mobley: he’s 22 on a rookie contract and has legitimate All-NBA potential. He almost won a Defensive Player of the Year award at age 21. You cannot trade him right now. (Except for the goofy idea I put at the end of this blog.)
So you are, in a way, stuck trying to stagger them while giving them enough burn and trying to unlock the combination, which could be crucial in the playoffs against elite bigs like Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Tier-2 bigs like Julius Randle, Kristaps Porzingis and Paolo Banchero. The Timberwolves have figured out how squeeze extra juice from a weird two-big combo, though Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are obviously much more complementary than Mobley and Allen.
In the end, Mobley’s return really pushes Dean Wade into a lesser role. That should be fine, as Mobley can improve upon almost everything Wade can do (including defense), so long as it doesn’t completely shred Allen’s productivity. What’s more tricky is when Garland returns any day now. Garland is a substantially better player than Isaac Okoro, the player he would in all likelihood knock out of the starting lineup. But Okoro, in my opinion, provides more of what a Mitchell-led team needs, which is defense and good chaos. (Well, usually it’s good.) Garland-Mitchell is much better than, say, Trae-Dejounte. But there are whispers of that weird duplication in Cleveland. Hints.
Does Bickerstaff, still coaching for his job this year, have the courage, inclination and permission to bring Garland off the bench once he returns? Back-up point guard has been another Cleveland deficiency. Caris LeVert is a fine bench scorer in an exclusively bench role this season (despite the team’s rampant injuries), and Sam Merrill is shooting the lights out from deep. Would putting Garland on that unit full-time boost the team, especially with Dean Wade and one of the staggered bigs featuring on it as well? Or does last season’s defensive success despite a Mitchell-Garland starting backcourt indicate that playing Garland together with Mitchell to start and end games is the right play? Or does Garland’s position on the current and future versions of this team make him as a non-starter a total non-starter?
As with Mobley and Allen, you can’t trade Garland right now, not without certainty about Mitchell’s long-term future. Cleveland really isn’t in position to trade much of anything unless they decide to take a huge swing. (Here’s the goofy idea hinted above: Mobley for Zion. Which team has to add another asset?)
This is a super interesting team entering a super interesting time. The first signs — beating an excellent team without a fluke performance — are good. There’s a ton on the line the rest of the season. Next 10 games: Pistons, at Grizzlies, at Spurs, Kings, at Wizards, at Nets, at Raptors, Sixers, Bulls, Magic. That feels like 8-2. Maybe 9-1. It feels like this team could be in the No. 2 seed in a couple of weeks. Two and a half games out right now.
How will the Cavaliers get through it — both this post-injury adjustment period and the season in full — and what will their future look like on the other side? Fascinating times in The Land.
Scores
Knicks 113, Hornets 92 — No Julius Randle, no O.G. Anunoby, so the Knicks got a combined 50 from Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo to run away. Brandon Miller with a perky game for Charlotte.
In 15 games since Anunoby first suited up for the Knicks, New York is a league-best 13-2 with the No. 5 offense and No. 1 defense and the league’s best net rating (+15.6). Pretty incredible trade.
Suns 118, Heat 105 — Miami has very quietly lost seven straight. And it hasn’t exactly been a murderer’s row: the streak includes losses to the Grizzlies, Raptors and Hawks. Jimmy Butler has played 29+ minutes in each of the losses. (In fact, Miami is 9-6 without Butler this season and 15-17 with him.) Bam Adebayo has played in all seven losses. What in the Heat Culture is going on?
Jazz 114, Nets 147 — Ben Simmons is back on the court. He came off the bench for the Nets and put up 10-8-11 on 5/5 shooting (they were all at the rim). He was a +27 in 18 minutes. Brooklyn ripped the game open three times during a Simmons stint.
Hoping he continues to play!
Pelicans 112, Celtics 118 — Boston was down big in the first half but cleaned it up and … took over late in the fourth! The Pelicans are certainly one of the few good or good-ish teams less resilient late in games than Boston.
The Celtics open up a 4-game lead in the East.
Wizards 118, Spurs 113 — Washington is 2-1 since Brian Keefe took over for Wes Unseld Jr. The “2” are against the Pistons and Spurs. That’s a good way to set the interim up for success!
Victor Wembanyama has at least one play that surprises and delights me in every game.
Timberwolves 107, Thunder 101 — Huge win for the Wolves on the road after some uninspiring play of late. Ant Edwards put up 27, the Twin Towers put Chet Holmgren and Josh Giddey in jail, Shai went off (37) but the excellent Minnesota defense kept everyone else in check.
So … uh, why is Ant so mad at the refs?
Kings 103, Grizzlies 94 — Memphis is further proof that as long as you aren’t playing a bunch of minus stars you can always cobble together a good defense. Domantas Sabonis with 26 rebounds. He also shot 10/11 from the floor. He’s good.
De’Aaron Fox was the only Kings player to attempt a free throw in the entire game. Weird!
Lakers 119, Rockets 135 — Jalen Green with 34-12-7. Alperen Sengun with 31-12-7. Anyone have any ideas what’s happened to Austin Reaves this season?
Magic 129, Mavericks 131 — Orlando scored 77 in the first half … and then 12 points in the entire third as the Mavericks rumbled back into the game. Luka Doncic with 45-9-15.
Bucks 107, Nuggets 113 — Denver was ice cold from deep but Jamal Murray hit a bevy of middies and Nikoa Jokic did his thing. Good game. No new coach bump for Doc Rivers.
Sixers 107, Blazers 130 — Joel Embiid misses his 12th game of the season. He would need to play at least 33 of the Sixers’ remaining 37 games to hit the 65-game threshold for MVP availability. Even setting aside that rule, missing these games is hurting his case.
The Sixers are 3-9 when Embiid sits this season.
Schedule
All times Eastern.
Lakers at Hawks, 7:30
Pacers at Celtics, 7:30, TNT
Jazz at Knicks, 7:30
Raptors at Bulls, 8
Sixers at Warriors, 10, TNT
Be excellent to each other.
Not to sound like a guy from 2014 by complaining about Kardashians but I feel like being embroiled in long-term Kardashian drama makes anyone a Spiritual Laker For Life
New Orleans would definitely have to add compensation to make that trade happen. Both are flawed stars, but the contract situation of Zion makes it an abysmal straight up trade for the Cavs.
Also, to comment further on the Embiid MVP case, he's clearly the MVP when he plays, but is Embiid playing in 73% (33/45) of the 76ers games more important to his team than Jokic playing in 98% (47/48) of the Nuggets games?