Sure, an 0-3 comeback in the NBA is inevitable. So is the heat death of the universe

Good for Boston for getting a game. I'm not sure it means we're headed toward the greatest comeback in NBA playoffs history.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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Vesuvius in Eruption; J.M.W. Turner; 1817-20

The Boston Celtics in the first three games of this series, all loses, from three-point range: 31 of 106, 29%.

The Boston Celtics in Game 4 of this series, a win, from three-point range: 18 of 45, 40%.

It’s *almost* as simple as that. The Celtics’ offense relies heavily on long-range shooting. Long-range shooting is particularly prone to variance. Ergo, inordinately hot or cold shooting from long-range can dictate results in ways other facets of the game cannot. (To wit, Miami shot 8 of 32 from deep, 25%. Not great.)

But it wasn’t just the threes. Miami averaged fewer than 10 turnovers a game in the first three games of the series, but committed 15 in Game 4. Many of those came in the fourth quarter, short-circuiting the Heat’s comeback attempts repeatedly. They allowed Boston’s offense, which got stodgy as the game wore down, to get easy looks in transition. They killed Miami’s momentum.

The Celtics committed fewer turnovers in Game 4 (10) than they’d been averaging in the series. That prevented Miami’s sprinting, balance-shredding fast breaks. It’s all of a piece.

The question, of course, is whether Game 4 is all of a piece with a Boston comeback in this series. I’ve heard a bunch of analysts say that a comeback from 0-3 is inevitable, eventually, and Boston-Miami seems like a good candidate.

I’m not sure it’s as inevitable as everyone seems to think. I mean, is it inevitable like the heat death of our universe? Sure. But there’s no math or science that I’ve seen that indicates that “we’re due” for an 0-3 comeback. Major League Baseball has had a best-of-7 World Series since 1922 and best-of-7 divisional series since 1985 and a comeback from down 0-3 has happened once. The National Hockey League has been doing best-of-7 series since 1939 and comebacks from down 0-3 have happened four times. It’s never happened in the NBA despite the league phasing in best-of-7 series since 1950. It’s exceedingly rare for a reason: winning four games in a row at all is difficult. Winning four games in a row against the same opponent is tougher. Winning four games in a row traveling after every game is even tougher. Winning four games in a row against a team that has just beat you three games in a row seems near impossible. And lo! History indicates it’s near impossible, no matter the sport.

It would be an interesting twist, nonetheless. But odds are Jimmy Butler rebounds and the Heat finish this series off before it gets to seven. Meanwhile, the Nuggets rest.