Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's different kind of miracle

And briefly revisiting the path James Harden took to the top.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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The Second Class Carriage; Honore Daumier; 1864

Since working on my little Consensus Best Player Alive metric earlier this offseason — an update with a few more seasons of data is coming soon — I’ve been thinking about how teams land top-tier players, especially as it pertains to the four current players who have set themselves apart.

Nikola Jokic was famously drafted during a Taco Bell commercial. This is one of those historic moments that completely change the trajectory of a franchise — you believe in your scouting, you take a flyer on an unconventional player, you move him up your hierarchy over the course of two or three seasons … and he happens to become one of the greatest players ever. Skill and talent were definitely involved in identifying and nurturing the potential future Best Player Alive. But there was also a ton of luck involved.

It strikes me that the story of Giannis Antetokounmpo in the NBA is pretty similar to that of Jokic, albeit as a mid-first round pick as opposed to a mid-second round pick. The truth is that non-lottery picks are akin to scratcher tickets, whether its No. 15 or No. 41. Giannis was unlike any other NBA player, but the Bucks saw what they saw, nurtured it and ended up with the Best Player Alive for a stretch. (A stretch that could very well resume.) Like Jokic, it took him two years to settle in as a real live NBA talent and three years to look like a player of supreme import.

Luka Doncic is, by contrast, the anomaly among the current set of Best Player Alive candidates. Many understood that he could be a historic talent when he entered the league. Unfortunately for them, the front office leadership of the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings or Atlanta Hawks were not among those many believers. Or if they were, they were also a bit too in the tank for Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley and Trae Young. In any case, Doncic came in a wunderkind and delivered. For Dallas to walk into Luka’s draft with the No. 5 pick and come away with Doncic is worth a parade itself. Genius moves that are paying off in extraordinary ways. If you’re looking for luck here, it’s in the reality that Luka was not the consensus No. 1 or 2 pick.

And then we come to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the only current Best Player Alive candidate who started his NBA career on a different team.