Recalibrating the NBA MVP contender tiers
... around the 50-game mark.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
Crossing the Pasture, Winslow Homer, 1871-72
We’re near the 50-game mark in the NBA season. The NBA trade deadline and All-Star Weekend are about two weeks away. Once we come back from the break, we’re officially in the stretch run, where bad teams maybe start tanking a little more obviously, where good teams start angling for seeds and to escape the play-in, where stars on the best team maybe take a little extra rest. So it’s a good time to check in on the NBA MVP race, given that it seemed pretty wide open earlier this year.
It’s not that open any more, and not because of the player leading the race earlier.
Here’s my take on the contender tiers without referencing the betting markets.
S Tier
Nikola Jokic
Joel Embiid
Jokic is the reigning MVP and has been more efficient with a lesser supporting cast this season. That shouldn’t be possible. He’s having perhaps the greatest offensive performance for a center in modern NBA history. And his team — despite the biggest spate of injuries among any good teams this season — is doing quite well, just a game out of the No. 4 seed.
Embiid is a step behind Jokic in terms of offensive efficiency and obviously playmaking, but is scoring at a higher volume and remains a top-2 defensive center in the league. Defense matters! And while it’s not an injury affecting the Sixers’ talent base, he’s also missing a high-caliber teammate this year. Also, don’t look now but Embiid has Philadelphia in the No. 3 seed in the East. The context cases for Jokic and Embiid are basically equivalent.
I would put Jokic a forehead above Embiid right now based on the remarkable efficiency and the Serbian’s edge in advanced metrics, but this could easily flip in my mind.
A Tier
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Stephen Curry
Curry was the leader for the award through December. The month of January was tough enough to drop him back to the chase pack as Jokic and Embiid excelled. But Curry could just as easily launch right back into the stratosphere — we’ve seen it plenty of times — and the Warriors are a tier above the Nuggets and Sixers in the grand scheme, which matters to some voters.
Giannis was definitely in the mix as Curry faltered, but the Bucks are having a weird regular season and Embiid would seem to have the production edge on Antetokounmpo while also pulling more weight for a worse team that’s above Milwaukee in the standings. But it’s totally plausible that Giannis could go on a tear, getting the Bucks to the top of the table and securing a third MVP. Numbers wise, he belongs in the S Tier. Narrative wise, I think he’s here for now.
B Tier
Ja Morant
DeMar DeRozan
Luka Doncic
Only one of these three players is going to make All-NBA first team. It would take some very unexpected events for any of them to actually win MVP this season, but you could convincingly argue that what would need to happen to make it so is already less unexpected than the fact that Morant and DeRozan are legitimately in this conversation. Ja, at least, should be floating around this conversation for years to come. DeMar’s legendary season will be remembered forever, especially if the Bulls make a deep playoff run.
That Luka is in the MVP conversation is less a grand surprise, of course, as he is persistently pegged as a preseason contender who then gets off to a slow start and rounds into form around this time of year. So it goes. He’s really in a remarkable stretch, though, and Dallas is thriving.
Out of the Mix
Kevin Durant
LeBron James
Durant might be on top of the pile if not for his injury. LeBron might be on top of the pile if his team wasn’t terribly mediocre and if he hadn’t missed a slew of games. It’s hard to see these two get the necessary momentum to get back into the conversation.
All Apologies To …
Members of the Phoenix Suns
Members of the Miami Heat
Your teams are awesome. But you didn’t have any All-Star starters, let alone real MVP contenders. Settle for Finals MVP.
Scores
FRIDAY
Celtics 92, Hawks 108 — Boston is prone to these truly terrible offensive performances and I’m not sure what the fix is, other than finding a reliable third scorer?
Bulls 122, Spurs 131 — This is no way to invite a friend back into town, Spurs! I’m still so glad about the unknown media voter who put Dejounte Murray as an All-Star starter. A hero walks among us!
Knicks 108, Bucks 123 — Cam Reddish has sat in six of the eight games since he arrived in New York, and played a total of 15-1/2 minutes in the other two games. New York traded a pick for him. Did they consult Tom Thibodeau first? I don’t think Cam is getting that extension.
SATURDAY
Kings 101, Sixers 103 — Sacramento was down by 10 with a buck thirty to go, despite Tyrese Haliburton’s best efforts. (Don’t you dare call it an audition! — the Kings have moved on from Ben Simmons, according to James Ham.) And then Haliburton did all this … and almost got the Kings the win.
Raptors 124, Heat 120 (3OT) — A game that refused to end. The only way to get a defensive struggle into the 120s and to get three overtimes in. Gritty road win for the Raptors.
Wizards 95, Grizzlies 115 — Heavens bless the Grizz.
Nets 106, Warriors 110 — No James Harden for the primetime showdown, but Kyrie Irving provided enough firepower to keep Brooklyn in it. Beautiful dagger from Klay Thompson with 20 seconds left, beautiful shot from Kyrie to answer and extend the game.
SUNDAY
Lakers 121, Hawks 129 — Onyeka Okongwu dunked the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter.
That doesn’t even include his dunk of the night on three Lakers.
Seven straight wins for the Hawks, who have passed the Knicks and Wizards to get into the playoff. Still five games away from escaping the play-in. Meanwhile, LeBron has sat three games with knee soreness.
Cavaliers 105, Pistons 115 — Really liking what we’re seeing from Cade Cunningham lately.
Nuggets 136, Bucks 100 — This is Master Class.
Jazz 106, Timberwolves 126 — This is Utah’s first loss within the Northwest Division all season, they’d won their first 10 games in the division (including three against Minnesota). Good win for Minny, even with Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell out and Joe Ingles exiting early with a knee injury. (The outlook on Ingles seems grim at this point.) Utah is only a game ahead of the No. 6 seed and is suddenly 4.5 games behind Memphis for No. 3.
Spurs 110, Suns 115 — Ten straight wins for Phoenix. No. 3 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 2 net rating, best record by a huge and increasing margin. Chris Paul had 19 assists to two turnovers.
Schedule
Eight games, all times Eastern.
Pelicans at Cavaliers, 7
Clippers at Pacers, 7
Grizzlies at Sixers, 7***
Heat at Celtics, 7:30, NBA TV
Kings at Knicks, 7:30
Raptors at Hawks, 7:30**
Warriors at Rockets, 8
Blazers at Thunder, 8
Links
Zach Lowe’s always incredible 10 things column on ESPN Insider. ($)
Reports indicate that Jonquel Jones and Courtney Williams will both sign (re-sign in Jones’ case) with the Connecticut Sun. There’s one title contender.
The Storm picked up Briann January, which likely means that Jordin Canada is headed elsewhere.
Howard Beck on Fred VanVleet’s rise to All-Star level.
Monty Williams will coach in the All-Star Game.
Be excellent to each other.
I appreciate the S-Rank Naruto-esque system here.