Predicting the NBA Western Conference

Good morning. Against my better judgment, I’m getting a bit more granular on my preseason predictions this year. First up, today: the Western Conference. I’m predicting the final standings and what happens in the playoffs. Wish me luck. Let’s basketball.

Young Woman With Ibis, Edgar Degas, 1857-58

TIER 1A

1. Memphis Grizzlies

My case for the Grizzlies: second best record in the whole NBA last season with the No. 4 offense, No. 6 defense and No. 5 net rating overall. They did all that as one of the youngest teams in the NBA. Ja Morant became an All-NBA talent. I think Desmond Bane is poised to challenge for an All-Star slot and maybe even be in the All-NBA chatter. Jaren Jackson Jr., if he gets back on the court quickly, is right there as well. The vibes are impeccable, and vibes matter a lot to me. Yes, I have Memphis getting the No. 1 seed in the West.

2. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are the team most likely to lead the league in DNP-Load Management games. But they are so deep, so talented and so well-coached that barring a major absence from Kawhi Leonard or Paul George, you can pencil them in for 50 wins right now. This has the potential to be a 60-win team if no one gets hurt and Tyronn Lue avoids resting the two stars together. John Wall, Reggie Jackson, Terance Mann, Norman Powell. Good lord.

3. Golden State Warriors

The champs. A little bit of drama. A little long in the tooth in key spots. How do you feel about James Wiseman? Do you think he’s the land bridge to a second Valhalla for our heroes, or do you remember the James Wiseman Experience of 2020-21 unfondly and fear the square peg/round hole sagas will return? I think Steve Kerr is focused on winning another title, having proven that this constellation of stars can do it, and will be less invested in youth development if the standings seem important. That’s my wild-haired guess, at least. We won’t see it until we see it.

TIER 1B

4. Denver Nuggets

I’d love to put the Nuggets at the very top of the pile, and I believe in Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Malone. Michael Porter Jr. remains the question mark for me, and his preseason was fairly encouraging. I’m also going to need to see the defense come together. Denver hasn’t been top-10 in that category since 2018-19. Is there a great defensive team trapped in here? Jokic is better than most think, Murray competes, Aaron Gordon solves a lot of problems and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should help significantly. I think MPJ staying on the court and the defense gelling into something greater than the sum of its parts are key to this team being in the contender realm.