On the NBA midseason officiating shift conspiracy theory

Let's put this all into context and explore alternate explanations.

Good morning. Sorry this edition is so late. I got carried away in the main essay! Let’s basketball.

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Conversation; Camille Pissarro; 1881

Tom Haberstroh

has done some incredibly detailed work to highlight a what we’ll call the theoretical midseason officiating shift. Haberstroh documents a decrease in shooting fouls, defensive three seconds, offball fouls, technical fouls and even travels. This all occurred around the end of January and beginning of February, according to the statistics, and the NBA league office denied to

Marc Stein

that this is the result of any sort of directive from HQ.

Pundits have run with it. In a podcast with Haberstroh,

Ethan Strauss

— who I think it’s fair to say is often skeptical and critical of the league’s decision-making — alleged the NBA is covering up its correct decision to deflate scoring by calling fewer fouls and violations. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo discussed what Simmons refers to as a “sneaky rule change” at length on Sunday. The discourse is starting to be mentioned during game broadcasts. Zach Lowe and Kevin Pelton discussed it on The Lowe Post this week.

The narrative that the NBA did something to convince its officials to use their whistle less frequently in the middle of a historic scoring season is unavoidable at this point. Are we sure its correct, though?

Some folks — particularly Haberstroh and Lowe — are being careful before jumping to conclusions. Others are not. I just want to offer up some context and perspective on all of this.

For example, Tom cites the decreased rate of defensive three seconds calls. This was called 0.309 times per 100 possessions in December and 0.187 times per 100 possessions in February. That’s a large percentage decrease for sure. But what are we really talking about here? Let’s assume 100 possessions per game per team. (We’re actually at about 99 this season, but math is hard enough without round numbers.) So 200 possessions per game. So in December, if you had a 10-game slate on a given night, you’d expect a total of six defensive three seconds violations to be called. In a 10-game slate on a given February night, you’d expect … four violations to be called. The difference is basically a two technical free throws every three games played. Is that rate really perceptible to the coaches and players as they cheat off the ball or slip into zone? Is this statistical change at all meaningful in relation to a violation that refs could theoretically call a dozen times per game under the letter of the rule? I suspect not.

Tom highlighted the fact that neither Cleveland or Charlotte shot free throws before the fourth quarter in separate games on Wednesday, something that hadn’t happened in an individual game in almost two years. That’s certainly an anomaly.

Also, the Hornets are dead last in free throw rate in the entire league. In fact, they have the lowest free throw rate recorded by any team in three seasons, since the 2020-21 Bulls. If any recent squad was going to go three quarters without a free throw, it would be the 2023-24 Charlotte Hornets. (Also, Charlotte ended up with 13 free throws for the game — all in the fourth quarter. They also scored 110 points on the game, three more than their season average of 107.)

Cleveland isn’t nearly as averse to drawing fouls, but they are 21st in the league in free throw rate, and their opponent that night — the Pels — are 11th best at avoiding giving up free throws. And here’s a wrinkle: through the first three quarters of the game, 51% of the Cavaliers’ shots were three-pointers, which are far less likely to draw fouls than shots closer to the rim. And Cleveland was hot, shooting 46% on threes in the first three quarters. They led by 19 going into the fourth, despite no free throws. They had scored 87 points in three quarters, which put them on pace for 116 for the game, above league average of 115 and above Cleveland’s own season average of 114. (They ended up scoring 116 points.) In essence, Cleveland’s anomalous lack of free throws through three quarters did not tamp down scoring or impact the Cavaliers’ likelihood of winning at all. It was … anomalous.

There might be something here. I’m not disputing that. The shooting foul rates are the most interesting factor, and Tom’s chart is pretty clear that there was a noticeable decrease in rate beginning in February. I want to throw something out here, though. You know who led the league in free throws per game by no small margin through the end of January? Joel Embiid. And you know who hasn’t played a single game since the beginning of February? Joel Embiid. It’s not just Joel: Trae Young was No. 5 in free throws per game through January, and has played only nine games since due to injury.

Free throws are predominantly earned by stars, and a bunch of stars in the top 30 in free throws per game (Julius Randle, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey, Jerami Grant) have missed varying amount of time since February. It has been documented that injuries are creeping up as the season wears on. The replacement players are unlikely to be as adept at drawing shooting fouls. The average NBA game this season features 44 total free throws. Embiid averaged 12 per game himself. Does it matter in a statistical sense? I don’t know, but it seems like it could.

There’s also the fact that teams are shooting threes more frequently as the season goes on. Here’s the median percentage of field goal attempts taken from beyond the arc leaguewide by month this season.

• October: 38.2%

• November: 37.8%

• December: 39.0%

• January: 38.7%

• February: 39.9%

• March: 39.3%

The two highest rates: February and March. Huh. Teams average 89 field goal attempts per game. The difference between that November 3PA% and the February figure is two extra threes per game (or roughly 100 possessions) per team. The difference in personal fouls per 100 possessions per team from Haberstroh’s data (I’m combining the shooting and non-shooting fouls here): two per game. THIS IS NOT A RIGOROUS COMPARISON. I’m not nearly as skilled or well-resourced on these matters as Tom or certainly the gambling-focused folks. But there’s definitely a relationship between shot distance and likelihood of foul-drawing, and it should be considered in this discussion. It could be that teams are shooting from distance more, leading to fewer foul calls. It could be that teams are getting fewer foul calls, leading them to shoot from distance more often. That’s something to look at.

And frankly, that’s how this line of thinking came to me. I wondered what the effects of a loosening of defensive contact would be on the league. My initial thought is that it would lead to (even) more threes. If you’re more likely to get hacked with a lower chance of earning free throws as a result, you’re going to seek space to get off clean shots. Space exists on the perimeter. Ergo, more deep shots.

Ergo, more variance. Ergo, more potential blowouts. Ergo, be careful what you wish for.

But that’s just a theory, and it could potentially be part of the explanation here. Or not. I would never put it past someone in Adam Silver’s circle suggesting that refs are calling games far more tightly than the rules demand. The person who manages the refs works for Adam Silver. And the league can likely effect change indirectly through their private, internal grading of officials’ performance. For example, if the internal grades suggest a ref is calling too many fouls, and that ref wants a playoff assignment, that ref is probably going to adjust their practice unless they’re a veteran with a pre-punched ticket to the Finals.

It could also just be a little premature, a little strident, a little lacking in context. Underbaked, as it were. But I’m sure more data analysis will happen. I just hope that as the sample grows, if the results shift back to the pre-February norms, folks don’t jump to the conclusion that the NBA panicked and reversed course. Sometimes the data is just noisy. Sometimes the truth isn’t out there, it’s just a little more cloudy than we’d like.

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Joe Mazzulla Is Built Different