No, OKC's tank job did not stifle Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's development

We have our answer to the most important question about the Thunder's decision to rebuild at the turn of the decade.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Barring injury replacements, a maximum of six guards can be selected for an NBA All-Star team: two starters selected by a consortium of fans, players and media; two guard reserves selected by coaches; and two guard reserves selected as wild cards by coaches. Six, that’s it.

Here’s a list of Western Conference guards who have already been tagged as potential NBA All-Stars this season.

• Luka Doncic (maybe the current MVP leader; at worst No. 2 on that ballot)

• Stephen Curry

• Ja Morant (he’s on the MVP ballot right now, too)

• Devin Booker

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

• Damian Lillard

• De’Aaron Fox

• Desmond Bane

• C.J. McCollum

That’s more than six names, friends. At least three of those players will not be in the All-Star Game barring injury replacements or some truly wild positional chicanery. And I’m assuming that Paul George, if he makes it, will get the nod in the frontcourt.

At this point Luka, Ja and Steph feel like unquestionable locks, assuming one doesn’t get injured and miss lots of time. Every day that goes by, Shai is starting to feel like he’s trending toward lock as well. Last night, he put up 42 and the game-winner.

NBA TV @NBATV

🔥 SGA TRIPLE FOR THE LEAD 🔥

Cryogenic snake venom is his blood type. I think he’s proven that in these situations you need to double him or trap and play 3v4 around him. He’s just too dangerous, too cold.

And it’s not like his team is that bad: the Thunder are 7-8, a game ahead of the Warriors and two games or less behind the Grizzlies and Mavericks. OKC is totally in the mix thanks primarily to SGA’s continued growth in what had previously appeared to be a somewhat stifling environment.

Why stifling? Shouldn’t a rebuilding situation be good for a young guard? Well, to a degree. Shai hasn’t been “raw” in a long time. He was already a high-quality player when he arrived in OKC in the Paul George trade for the 2019-20 season. That was the Chris Paul year, where CP3 rewrote his twilight, SGA showed immense potential while averaging 19-6-3 and the Thunder stunningly made the playoffs when it had appeared they were going into the take. Steven Adams was there, peak Dennis Schroder was there, Danilo Gallinari was there. There was talent, SGA thrived, it became clear he was made for big things.

That’s when OKC went into the tank and stripped quality veterans from the roster. By Year 3, Shai had gone from a rookie roleplayer on a decent team to a low-tier star on a good team to a mid-tier star on a dreadful rebuilding team. Injuries kept him off the court for long stretches of the next two seasons, leading to theories that the Thunder knew he was too good individually to let them lose the number of games they needed to.

I’m a bit bored by that whole narrative. None of these institutional tankers are ethical; OKC’s style is no more egregious than what other clubs have done. I’m more curious in how the Presti Plan affected Shai’s development. The evidence is that there was no negative impact whatsoever! SGA played 35 games in 2020-21 and 56 last season. When he did play there was never much reliable talent around him. A few games of Al Horford here, some Lu Dort there. Josh Giddey became an interesting co-star last year, but Giddey a) was a rookie and b) has a super weird and idiosyncratic game.

Now he has a bit more help, though not a ton: Giddey is a year in, Dort is solid, Tre Mann is solid, even Aleksej Pokusevski is for the first time in his career a viable NBA player. It’s still probably the worst supporting roster any All-Star caliber guard has. (Who’s the runner-up in that category: Tyrese Haliburton, Luka or Steph? It’s not Fox or Dame!)

So SGA’s development in the critical Years 3 and 4 of his career was threatened by injuries and a lack of supporting talent … and the dude is averaging 31-6-5 in Year 5? With seemingly weekly game-winners? The evidence is that the Presti Plan had no negative impact on Shai.

And uh, the Thunder should have Chet Holmgren next season and they are +7 in future first round picks with some potentially material swap options as well. (In other words, OKC has all of their own first-round picks and seven more, plus some swap options to potentially improve the quality of their own picks.)

Because Shai is now a Grade-A star, Presti has options to consolidate draft capital into more current talent. He has shown a willingness to move potential for actualized talent in the past — remember the first Paul George trade, which involved sending future All-Star Domantas Sabonis to Indiana. Because SGA has become this good this fast, OKC has options and the potential to disrupt the ill-formed Western Conference hierarchy much sooner than you would have thought.