Looking ahead at the next NBA coaching carousel

Is this going to be an active summer on the coaching circuit, or not?

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Ballet Rehearsal, Edgar Degas, 1873

The 2021 offseason was busy for coaching changes, with eight replacement happening. Eight had happened the prior offseason as well (counting Chris Finch, a midseason switch in 2020-21 for the Wolves but not counting J.B. Bickerstaff, a late-season switch in 2019-20 for the Cavaliers). With 16 coaching changes in two years, are we headed for a quiet coaching carousel in 2022?

Let’s take a look.

Coaches That Are Almost Certainly Not Being Replaced

• J.B. Bickerstaff, Cavaliers: The team’s overachieved and Bickerstaff is probably here for a long time.

• James Borrego, Hornets: This is my iffiest inclusion on the list. I think Borrego is most likely safe, especially since Charlotte is on track to make the play-in again. Borrego received a multi-year extension last offseason, which is a strong indication in the direction of him getting a longer runway. That said, the Hornets are going to be a play-in underdog in any circumstance and patience is not infinite, even in Charlotte. Stranger things have happened!

• Mike Budenholzer, Bucks: The championship earned him tenure.

• Rick Carlisle, Pacers: Awful season but still honeymooning.

• Mark Daigneault, Thunder: Little reason for OKC to pay another coach when Daigneault seems to be meeting the assignment (tank and develop).

• Billy Donovan, Bulls: Proving his NBA chops and getting a team to overachieve.

• Chris Finch, Timberwolves: Relatively new and on the path to the play-in at minimum.

• Willie Green, Pelicans: Has a flawed team playing well, and is still new.

• Taylor Jenkins, Grizzlies: A likely top-3 finisher for Coach of the Year.

• Steve Kerr, Warriors: I think he’s here so long as Steph Curry is here.

• Jason Kidd, Mavericks: Honeymoon and Luka Doncic seems to love him.

• Tyronn Lue, Clippers: Probably won’t make top-3 in Coach of the Year balloting, but might be a top-3 active coach in the league.

• Jamahl Mosley, Magic: Honeymoon and he’s doing the job as assigned.

• Nick Nurse, Raptors: He signed an enormous extension before the 2020-21 season. I think he’s safe for another couple seasons at least.

• Erik Spoelstra, Heat: An institution. He’s the only person coaching right now that I absolutely believe will still be in his current role in 2032.

• Ime Udoka, Celtics: He has certainly earned his long-term contract.

• Wes Unseld Jr., Wizards: Washington isn’t replacing a coach after one year.

• Monty Williams, Suns: Coach of the Year. Probably should have won it last year, too.

That’s 18 coaches unlikely to go anywhere. That leaves 12 question marks left. Let’s get one out of the way.

Coaches That May or May Not Retire This Offseason After Reaching a Milestone in the Next Week or So

• Gregg Popovich, Spurs: No one seems to have any sort of read on whether Popovich plans to retire this summer. The fact that Ime Udoka moved on and Becky Hammon moved on and Tim Duncan decided to no longer be a coach … all that makes me think that Popovich has shared with his circle that he plans on sticking around a while longer. But he’s 73 years old, so who knows?

Eleven to go.