Joel Embiid and ethical scoring

The Big Fella puts up 51 on the NBA's top defense. Seventeen of those points came at the line.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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Ossian Receiving the Ghosts of the French Heroes; Anne-Louis Girodet de Roussy-Trioson; 1800-02

Joel Embiid, the two-time reigning scoring champ and leading scorer this season, dropped 51 points on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who boast the No. 1 defense in the NBA. In some quarters, this is a signal of Embiid’s continued greatness under Nick Nurse and a leading indicator of the potential for a second MVP award for his mantle. In other quarters, particularly those located in the Upper Midwest, this is a sign of egregious flopping and a tight whistle around Embiid’s game, because Embiid took 18 free throws (making 17) to help get those points.

Presumptive Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert played just 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Embiid took just six fewer free throws than Minnesota overall. This is a trend for the Big Fella, who has historically been among the best foul-drawers in the NBA. Some believe the foul-drawing efforts to be below him.

You may recall the concept of “ethical scoring” making the NBA Internet rounds last year. My introduction to it was via a Twitter user touting Pascal Siakam’s ethical scoring performances.

Two specific actions are cited as unethical in this definition: spamming pull-up threes and “foul grifting.” Let’s leave the threes aside, because I would argue you need to get specific in defining which threes come within the flow of an attack and which are “spam.” Foul grifting is also all in how you define it, but I think free throw attempts are a good proxy there. Players that critics would say are “foul grifters” should record lots of free throws.

There are a few ways to look at this. The first is to look at what percentage of a player’s points come from the free throw line. Per Stathead, here are the top 15 players in free throws as a percentage of points this season, limited to players averaging at least 15 points per game and qualifying for scoring title eligibility.

1. Jimmy Butler, 33.74%

2. Joel Embiid, 29.77%

3. Damian Lillard, 29.18%

4. DeMar DeRozan, 26.66%

5. James Harden, 26.53%

6. Trae Young, 25.53%

7. Jaren Jackson Jr., 24.87%

8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 24.42%

9. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 24.12%

10. Cole Anthony, 24.10%

11. Kristaps Porziņģis, 24.02%

12. Collin Sexton, 23.63%

13. Kevin Durant, 23.42%

14. Anthony Davis, 23.36%

15. RJ Barrett, 22.60%

There are some names you’d expect there … and then Jimmy Butler, all alone at the top. Interesting. You don’t often hear Butler described as a grifter (in foul-drawing or coffee sales). JJJ, Cole Anthony and Barrett were surprises to me as well.

Let’s tweak it a little: what does the scoring leaders list look like if you take made free throws out entirely? Again per Stathead, here’s the top 15 in non-FT points per game this season, with their rank in normal points per game in parentheses.

1. Luka Dončić, 26.3 (2)

2. Joel Embiid, 24.7 (1)

3. De'Aaron Fox, 24.2 (6)

4. Kevin Durant, 23.7 (3)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 23.2 (5)

6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 23.2 (4)

7. Donovan Mitchell, 22.4 (9)

8. Stephen Curry, 22.4 (7)

9. Nikola Jokić, 21.8 (11)

10. Jayson Tatum, 21.6 (10)

11. Desmond Bane, 21.4 (18)

12. Tyrese Maxey, 21.2 (13)

13. LeBron James, 21.1 (15)

14. Trae Young, 21.0 (8)

15. Jalen Brunson, 20.8 (14)

If you drop in rankings, it shows your status as a top scorer relies on your ability to draw fouls. Embiid falls just one spot … behind the league’s second leading scorer, Luka Doncic, who trails Embiid in free throw frequency and who has attempted three times as many three-pointers as Embiid. This effort highlights Fox and Bane as not subsisting on free throws, in particular, and absolutely glares around Trae, who loses the most ranking among top scorers. (Kings and Grizzlies fans would likely say that Fox and Bane get bad whistles.)

There’s one other factor here around Embiid’s foul drawing or, for critics, foul grifting: the Big Fella is one of the best free throw shooters in the NBA.

120 players have attempted at least 50 free throws this season. (For players who have stayed healthy, that’s an average of two free throws per game.) Embiid is 12th in the league in FT% at 89.3%. If you look at the 19 players with at least 150 free throws this season, Embiid ranks fourth in FT% behind just Steph, Dame and Shai.

Let’s go beyond this season. In Stathead’s database, 103 players at least 7 feet tall have taken at least 500 career free throw attempts. Embiid ranks sixth in FT% at 82.4%, behind only Dirk Nowitzki, Lauri Markkanen, Karl-Anthony Towns, Yao Ming and Kristaps Porzingis. (Wilt Chamberlain ranks 101st out of 103, if you’re curious. Shaq is 98th, just behind Joel Przybilla, Omer Asik and Jakob Poeltl.)

One more measure. Let’s pull three-pointers back into this. What does the scoring list look like if you take away free throws and you take away the bonus on three-pointers? In other words, made field goals per game? Here’s your top 15.

1. Joel Embiid, 11.8

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 11.4

3. Luka Dončić, 11.2

4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 11.1

5. Kevin Durant, 10.8

6. De'Aaron Fox, 10.5

7. Nikola Jokić, 10.3

8. Donovan Mitchell, 9.6

9. LeBron James, 9.4

10. Jayson Tatum, 9.3

11. Anthony Davis, 9.1

12. Kawhi Leonard, 9.0

13. Desmond Bane, 9.0

14. Kyle Kuzma, 9.0

15. Tyrese Maxey, 9.0

Erase every free throw of this season, count threes as twos and Joel Embiid is still your NBA scoring leader. Perhaps that doesn’t reflect the nuances of the concept of “ethical scoring,” and because it’s theoretical and not reflecting in actual game results and standings, it’ll be soft comfort for fans of the Wolves and any (every) other team on which Embiid detonates. But given critiques of Embiid’s scoring process, it feels something like vindication.

By the way, Embiid scored 34 points on two-pointers against Minnesota — more than any Timberwolf scored overall. Remove points scored on free throws entirely from the game and Philadelphia would have still won by five, even before you account for the fact that the Sixers would be owed more possessions as a result (and admittedly Gobert’s low playing time).

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Good Morning It’s Survey

Hey, every so often I get a wild hair to know more about how my subscribers feel about the newsletter and consume basketball.

It’s fully anonymous: I’m not collecting email addresses from it. So be honest in the open feedback response. My feelings are impenetrable by all but Sacramento Kings opponents and, uh, former GMs.

I’ll share some results in early January. Just know that if you include a joke answer in the one question whether there’s the potential to include a joke answer, I will silently (but anonymously) judge you.

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Scores

Timberwolves 113, Sixers 127 — This was almost the Dunk of the Indeterminate Time Period.

Heat 115, Magic 106 — Is this Orlando crashing back to Earth? They are now 4.5 games out of No. 1, and at No. 4 have three teams within a game of them, including Miami.

Tyler Herro has only played 10 games this season, but in those 10 games he’s averaging 24-5-5 and shooting 42% from deep.

Hornets 113, Pacers 144 — A silver lining amid a horrific Charlotte season: Terry Rozier looks good. He’s still not yet 30!

Jazz 116, Cavaliers 124 — 3-0 for Cleveland since the Injury Bug waged war on Northeast Ohio … and this one was without Donovan Mitchell. But who needs Donovan Mitchell when you have Caris LeVert as a floor general and Sam Merrill roleplaying as the greatest shooter of all-time?

Merrill had a career-high 19 points on Monday … and then scored 27 with eight threes on Wednesday. He scored more in this game than he did in each of the past two seasons (25 in six games for Memphis in 2021-22, 25 in five games for Cleveland last year). Is this a case of Max Strus Syndrome, where a mid-major fringe NBA player suddenly gets a shot and turns into a rotational piece? Or is this a future “remember when Sam Merrill dropped eight threes in a random December game?” situation?

Nuggets 113, Raptors 104 — Who are the pieces that fit around Scottie Barnes? That’s the question I presume the Raptors front office is asking itself. Barnes isn’t Kawhi or Paul George, but as an outsider I’d probably look at building out the team like Kawhi and PG’s successful teams have been built.

Nikola Jokic with a quietly brilliant 31-15-6 game. The Nuggets are 19-10. At this stage last season they were 18-11 … and about to go on a major rip to take control of the conference. After Game 29, they won 15 of their next 17 games. Let’s see what happens this year.

Knicks 121, Nets 102 — The New York Knicks are legitimately good.

In sad news, it sounds like Mitchell Robinson could miss the rest of the season. They need one more center. They do have lots of draft capital to dangle. I wonder what price the Wizards would put on Daniel Gafford? Jakob Poeltl and Clint Capela’s contract are probably too rich for the Knicks given their apparent desire for flexibility plus Julius Randle’s status.

Hawks 134, Rockets 127 — Good road win for 12-15 Atlanta, which has about a month to get a couple games above .500 before they become the darlings of Trade Machine season.

I’m curious if Quin Snyder’s staff has discussed swapping Bogdan Bogdanovic and Onyeka Okongwu into the starting five for Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela. Murray is too good and expensive to be benched, but the team just seems to flow better when Trae Young is the clear alpha and has those two outlets on the perimeter and at the rim. Murray could be extremely effective off the bench.

Capela to the Knicks?

Lakers 108, Bulls 124 — “See, Lakers? You really need Zach LaVine.” Chicago obliterated L.A. in the second quarter, the Lakers nearly fought all the way back and the Bulls slammed the door again.

D’Angelo Russell with 2 points, 1 rebounds and 2 assists in 28 minutes.

The Bulls are 7-3 since Zach LaVine left the rotation. Does this mean they might not trade Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan?

Clippers 120, Mavericks 111 — Kawhi Leonard’s sauce levels haven’t been this high since Toronto. Someone get a glass of milk, quick.

The Mavericks had a raging comeback after being down 22 early. But Kawhi slammed the door. 17-15-11 for James Harden. 28-9-10 for Euro Harden. The Clippers move up to No. 4 in the West. They have won nine straight games. Dallas, meanwhile, is now 3-3 in Kyrie Irving’s latest injury absence.

Celtics 144, Kings 119 — In the second and third quarters combined, Boston scored 75 points on 66% effective field goal percentage. The Celtics didn’t have Jayson Tatum or Al Horford. Boston’s offense is really good, but this was probably the Kings’ worst defensive performance of the season. So many lapses.

Put another way: against a great defense, the Kings shot 50% from the floor in the third with just three turnovers and lost the quarter by 15 points.

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Schedule

A busy Thursday with eight games. All times Eastern. The single League Pass Dis-Invitational game gets a 🏆.

Jazz at Pistons, 7
Pelicans at Cavaliers, 7:30
Spurs at Bulls, 8
Pacers at Grizzlies, 8
Magic at Bucks, 8
Clippers at Thunder, 8
Lakers at Timberwolves, 9, NBA TV
Wizards at Blazers, 10 🏆

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And Finally

A beautiful story about Dorian Finney-Smith being reunited with his father, who has been behind bars for nearly three decades. The Mavericks, DFS’s former team, helped secure his father’s parole release.

Be excellent to each other.