Jalen Brunson isn't an All-Star starter because of YOU

And also Damian Lillard and Tyrese Maxey. And probably Eric Adams, James Dolan and Carmelo Anthony.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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L’Atelier Rouge; Henri Matisse; 1911

Last week I looked at the penultimate fan voting release for the NBA All-Star starters’ race and surmised who would get the nods based on what we know about player and media voting. My predictions finished 9/10. Honestly, there were only two real questions: the second backcourt spot in each conference.

In the West, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needed to win either the media or player vote and have Anthony Edwards pass Stephen Curry in player or media vote. As it turns out, Shai edged Luka Doncic in both the media and player votes. He stomped Steph Curry in both categories and damn near caught him in the fan vote. Plus Edwards beat Steph in the media vote. So Shai got the starting spot over Steph.

Assuming Ja Morant comes back next season, Ant continues to rise, and Shai and Luka stick around, it’s hard to see a path for Curry starting in another All-Star Game. He’ll definitely make the roster, though.

The spot that seemed impossible to predict a week ago is the one I missed: the second East backcourt spot alongside Tyrese Haliburton. I predicted Trae Young based off of his success in the fan vote (he was second a week and narrowly finished second in the end) and the fact that the media and player vote would not find consensus. But actually, Damian Lillard got the spot. Lillard finished third in the fan vote behind Hali and Trae, and finished higher than Trae in player and media votes.

The near-miss was Jalen Brunson, who claimed a distant third in the player vote and a solid No. 2 in the media. Brunson ended up tied with Dame on points overall because Brunson — who plays in the biggest media market in the league — finished fifth in the fan vote. He damn near finished sixth behind Tyrese Maxey in that category. Because more fans voted for Dame than Brunson, Lillard gets the spot.

There’s been much made of the failure of Knicks fans to load up the vote for Brunson. They’re just out of practice. It’s been a while since these things have been relevant. They’ll fix it next year.

Maxey, by the way, was the Achilles heel for Brunson’s chances, because Maxey stomped Brunson for No. 2 in the player vote. Maxey was actually only two votes behind Haliburton for No. 1 in the player vote! Had that happened and if Maxey would have caught Brunson for No. 5 in the fan vote (he finished 23K votes behind), with his No. 4 media vote finish Maxey would have finished exactly where Brunson ended up: tied with Lillard, losing it on the fan vote. Had Maxey fell behind Brunson for No. 2 in the player vote and all else remained equal, Brunson is an All-Star starter and Dame is not.

Trae and Donovan Mitchell were right there in the mix, too. Trae finished No. 6 in both the player and media vote (where he got one vote out of 100 cast). Young finished just behind Mitchell in the player vote; had Trae finished No. 5 ahead of Spida in that category, we would have had a three-way overall tie with Dame, Brunson and Young, and Trae would have been the starter, and my predictions would have been perfect. Alas: players do not seem to like Trae.

Mitchell’s problem was that players put Lillard over him. Flip those results — Mitchell third behind Hali and Maxey, Lillard fourth — and hold everything else constant and Donovan Mitchell is starting in the All-Star Game again.

Twas a very messy race that benefit Lillard, who has had a pretty weird season for a team that has had an exceptionally weird season. Dame, coming out of a messy situation on top? Ominous.

More thoughts from the final All-Star voting, which I find to be a fascinating exploration inside the brains of the different NBA audiences: