It's Monday in the middle of August. Time for the NBA playoffs
The weirdest season ever gets its unpredictable playoffs started. Let's predict what will happen!
Good morning.
Let’s basketball.
The 2020 NBA Playoffs start on Monday — in a few hours, actually, with a matinee Game 1 for the Nuggets and Jazz.
So let’s get out some predictions. I’ll start with my full bracket prediction, then explain a few things.
If you can’t read that graphic … the West first round I have Lakers in six, Thunder in seven, Nuggets in five, Clippers in five. West second round: Lakers in five, Clippers in four. West finals: Lakers in seven. In the East first round I have Bucks in four, Heat in seven, Celtics in six, Raptors in five. East second round: Bucks in five, Celtics in seven. East finals: Bucks in six. NBA Finals: Lakers over the Bucks in seven.
I have never been less confident of my playoff picks — maybe not since the 2014-15 season (Warriors’ first title, LeBron’s first season back in Cleveland).
Russell Westbrook’s injury is the biggest first-round factor, in my opinion. Him missing even two games could swing that series — Oklahoma City is legitimately good, and even with James Harden’s superb greatness the margins are tight.
It breaks my heart not to pick Toronto to repeat. The Celtics are healthy and look really, really good. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a god. The East is … the East is tough, folks!
The Blazers are not going to beat the Lakers — I’m guessing L.A. will hit the 100-point mark in the third quarter in each game — but they will force the Lakers to sharpen up.
I am absolutely factoring in LeBron taking a step up in the playoffs as he did in his four previous playoff trips. Otherwise, the Clippers would be the favorite in that series — but we’ve seen LeBron step up in extraordinary ways multiple teams. In fairness, Kawhi has done that in two postseasons as well (three if you count the injury-shortened 2017 run).
Speaking of the Clippers: Luka Doncic will put up nice box score lines but L.A. will hit the 100-point mark in the third quarter in each game.
How can anyone possibly pick Heat-Pacers with confidence?! I’m betting on Jimmy.
It’s hard to know a) whether Mike Budenholzer has learned from past playoff discombobulation and b) how much to factor that in if you assume he hasn’t. The Bucks were way better than the Celtics, Raptors, Lakers and Clippers during the regular season. But Bud has had superior analytic teams lose in the past. I’m hedging here by getting the Bucks to the Finals but falling to whichever L.A. team they face. I think the Bucks can beat any and all teams in a best-of-7 series. I’m not sure they will.
That said, this is Bud’s best team ever. Khris Middleton is not as good as Anthony Davis or Paul George. But he’s really, really good.
I’m really going to miss Steph Curry and the Warriors.
I’m really going to miss Gregg Popovich and the Spurs.
Ben Simmons’ injury absence has clarified the Sixers for me. Joel Embiid is a god and might tear apart Boston’s front line singlehandedly. But beyond him and Tobias Harris, without some shocking performances from Al Horford, Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz, Philadelphia is going to struggle to score on Boston. Simmons isn’t a great scorer, of course, but losing him as an option for offense creation really clarifies everything for me, even if the result is probably the same.
Toronto is losing Game 1 in the first round again. Book it. They could go 82-0 in the regular season and lose Game 1 in the first round against a 30-52 team. Happy Caris LeVert Day. Or Garrett Temple Day. Or Rodion Kurucs Day. Whatever. It’s happening.
Of the teams actually in the playoffs, the Jazz are the team that suffered most in the bubble. This was predicted due to the injury of Bojan Bogdanovic and the potential for lingering mistrust surrounding Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Those two seem to be fine, but Utah doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Denver. I think. The Nuggets are a little weird and didn’t have much game time with all their starters. I can see a world in which Utah takes that series.
Best series candidates: Lakers-Clippers (of course), Thunder-Rockets, Raptors-Celtics, Finals (whoever it is). It’d be good if another first round series popped into instant classic status. I think the second round is going to be disappointing — the Bucks are far superior to the Pacers and Heat, and the L.A. teams should roll on their side.
Daytime weekday playoff basketball: that’s weird! Out here on the West Coast, Jazz-Nuggets tips off at 10:30 a.m. on a Monday. Big ACC Tournament energy. Nothing is normal in 2020 but this is going to feel especially weird. But I’ve been so impressed with how “real” the high-stakes games have felt the last two weeks, so I expect that to continue going forward. Even if I’m eating an office salad during a pivotal Game 5 on a Tuesday.
At long last, playoffs! Let’s go!
In Praise of the Play-In
That game was incredible. Damian Lillard? Incredible. Ja Morant? Incredible. Brandon Clarke? Incredible. C.J. McCollum? Incredible. Jusuf Nurkic, on the day he found out his grandmother had died of COVID-19? He played with a ton of heart.
The Grizzlies lost a golden opportunity to make the playoffs in their first season with a new young core, but Memphis should still feel really good about how this campaign went. Ja Morant is a no-question star in the making, Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. are legitimately good and Taylor Jenkins did some strong work. The future is bright in Memphis. No sulking despite a tough loss and a tough finish.
WNBA Scores
Here are the WNBA scores for the weekend. The regular season is about halfway done. The Seattle Storm have lost one game. And frankly, I still don’t trust they actually lost that one — I might need to review the tape again. Must have been a disruption in the space-time continuum or something.
Friday
Sun 77, Sky 74
Storm 83, Wings 65 (sheesh)
Dream 80, Mercury 96
Saturday
Mystics 73, Aces 88
Sparks 90, Fever 76
Liberty 64, Lynx 94 (ok)
Sunday
Wings 95, Mercury 89 (nice win, Dallas)
Storm 95, Sun 72 (c’mon Seattle)
Sky 92, Dream 67
Schedule
PLAYOFFS! All times Eastern.
Jazz vs. Nuggets, 1:30 p.m., ESPN
Nets vs. Raptors, 4 p.m., ESPN
Sixers vs. Celtics, 6:30 p.m. ESPN
Mavericks vs. Clippers, 9 p.m., ESPN
10 hours straight of playoff basketball on a Monday in August. Lordy.
Links
Vlade Divac stepped down from the Kings last week after franchise owner Vivek Ranadive asked him to share power with advisor Joe Dumars, reports The Athletic’s Sam Amick and Jason Jones. Many people are citing Divac passing on Luka Doncic in the 2018 NBA Draft as the rationale for the firing. John Hollinger of The Athletic goes beyond that on what Divac did right and what he didn’t. ($) Of course, I’ll write more about Divac soon.
In other Friday NBA news, Jim Boylen was fired by the Bulls. Kelly Dwyer reacts. ($) Then on Saturday, the Pelicans said goodbye to Alvin Gentry. Those are your only two coach openings right now, one clearly more attractive than the other.
Mike Prada on Devin Booker’s enormous efficiency jump.
Rob Mahoney on the play-in thrills offering the NBA a path forward.
Scott Cacciola on the attempts the NBA have made to create some sort of home court advantage.
Matt Ellentuck on Napheesa Collier’s excellent start.
Sylvia Fowles is out indefinitely. How do the Lynx cope? (The answer is in the previous link!)
Mike Sykes on the true purpose of the SNKRS app.
NBA Desktop on Damian Lamonte Ollie Lillard Sr.
Year 20 of Ricky O’Donnell’s Western Illinois dynasty.
Enjoy the games. Be excellent to each other.