If the Clippers lose
Options to escape a nightmare.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
Dead Matador, Edouard Manet
The Clippers play the Mavericks in Dallas on Friday. The Mavs must smell blood. The entire NBA fan community and dare I say basketball world smells blood! L.A. is down 0-2 and going on the road to save their season. Paul George said this:
And after all, when have we ever known these Clippers to not rise to the occasion?
Ty Lue said this:
Yes yes, now for the hard part for the Mavericks: winning on their home floor after sweeping the opening two games on the road. Of course.
I empathize with these two successful humans trying to play down a disaster week to keep spirits around them from flatlining. PG plays the irrationally calm and confident character to a T; I recognize it because to a degree I see it in myself. I bet deep in his heart Lue thinks the Mavericks’ supremely hot shooting is a fluke being used to build a narrative of Clippers ineptitude, and … he’s not right but he’s not wrong, if you catch my drift? There’s some luck involved in every NBA game. It favors the Mavericks so far in this season, which isn’t to say that the Mavericks aren’t also straight-up better than the Clippers because of Luka’s creation ability and L.A.’s depth problems.
By Monday morning, the Clippers could be out of the playoffs. For a title favorite two years running, that would be an incredible disaster and have some ramifications both in Playa Vista and beyond. That said, it’s really really difficult to see how the Clippers would actually retool.
If Kawhi Leonard opts into his $36 million contract for 2021-22 but Serge Ibaka opts out of $9.7 million — the best case scenario for L.A. — the Clippers are at $135 million in payroll for next season. That’s right about at the luxury tax level and $24 million over the cap. That limits what the Clippers will be able to do in free agency.
There are not many tradable assets on the roster. Of course, their draft picks are spoken for. PG’s $190 million extension kicks in next season. If the Clippers lose this series, which looks like it will happen, is there a real market for PG with $190 million in guaranteed salary coming? Maybe there is, it takes just one team, and we know the Clippers are cold enough to trade stars who just signed long-term extensions (ask Blake Griffin).
You could almost certainly find a new home for Ivica Zubac at $7.5 million, but you’re already thin up front and Zu isn’t going to get you a blue chip No. 2 or 3 star. You need Terrance Mann because you need cheap and productive players; he isn’t so hot a prospect that attaching him with salary filler will get you a good starter. Same with Amir Coffey.
You can’t call Rajon Rondo untradable at $8.2 million because the Clippers just traded for him at $7.5 million. But there’s not a ton of value there. You can probably call Luke Kennard untradable $12.7 million next season with another $28.5 million guaranteed after that. If you move him, it’s as an add-on in a PG trade or it’s for someone else’s bad contract. Marcus Morris isn’t going to get you value on the market at $15.6 million with another $33.5 million outlayed after that. Patrick Beverley will be on a $14.3 million expiring contract; that might get you an asset, maybe. But it’s not getting you something to convert Losing In The First Round to Legitimate Championship Contender.
The Clippers would have more flexibility to move if Leonard opts out and considers his options; no one who would know seems to be reporting that Kawhi is even considering leaving the Clippers, and of course Kawhi opting out to consider his options make the Clippers in an even worse spot from a talent perspective. The likely result here is that Kawhi does opt out but signs a multi-year deal with the Clippers at a higher salary, further hampering L.A.’s ability to add talent.
If Leonard does lock in for a few years, that does open the door to Lawrence Frank and the crew checking out the market of PG. The risk of shopping PG is that you will alienate Kawhi, who arranged to bring him to L.A. at great cost to the Clippers’ future. That’s a no-go if Kawhi has an opportunity to leave soon. If Leonard opts out and signs, say, a new 4-year Clippers deal with a player option in 2024-25, then that risk dissipates. The Spurs might warn you, “Hey, he might just like … sit out a season and demand a trade, don’t ask how we know.” But with multiple years remaining on a deal, I find that threat noncredible, and I bet the Clippers would too.
Just because the Clippers traded Blake Griffin months after he signed a huge contract doesn’t mean the Clippers will trade Paul George months after he signed a huge contract. That’s not what this line of theorizing is about. The Clippers need to be respectable for the foreseeable future because being bad does them no good given the draft pick situation and the fact that Steve Ballmer is building a new arena. If Kawhi leaves, which seems unlikely, the only credible way to build a truly new team out of this roster is to trade Paul George. If Kawhi locks in for multiple years, which seems possible, the only credible way to build a truly new team out of this roster is to trade Paul George. If Kawhi picks up his option or signs a new 1+1 contract and does not tacitly consent to a PG trade, then … the Clippers had better get really creative.
Of course, in any of the above cases other than Kawhi leaving, the Clippers could still just run it back, hope for better luck, count on fools like me still believing in the power of Kawhi, and see what happens. That would not be the exciting result here, and it’s unlikely to fill most observers will confidence that the Clippers can break the curse and make the conference finals (let alone the Finals or win a championship). But it is a legitimate path forward and based on past results it will result in a whole lot of mirth every postseason for everyone who is not a Clippers fan. That’s worth something, isn’t it?
Scores
NBA
Bucks 113, Heat 84 (MIL leads 3-0) — Good night, Heat. Good night, Big Face Coffee. Good night, Bam. See y’all next season. For Miami’s sake, I really really hope those reports that the Heat balked at a James Harden deal over including Tyler Herro were false. Because SHEESH.
Jrue Holiday, +41 in 34 minutes. He’s +88 for the series. The Bucks are +65. This is how you exorcise some ghosts, no? The Sixers are over there asking if they can get in on this action and play the Heat a few games.
Suns 95, Lakers 109 (LAL leads 2-1) — Chris Paul keeps gutting these minutes out, but he can’t shoot and sometimes it looks hard for him to dribble decisively with his right hand and it’s so sad. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and crew locked up Devin Booker this time (6/19 shooting, 6 assists, 4 turnovers. Big game from Anthony Davis as LeBron still looks maybe 75% at best.
If there’s a positive from this series for Phoenix, it’s that the kids are getting some valuable playoff reps against the defending champs, Booker is getting an education on playoff defense and Deandre Ayton is proving how good he can be by finishing in the paint and guarding the rim.
I don’t like this from Booker in the final minute. Not quite Andrew Bynum behavior but it’s on the Andrew Bynum spectrum. Nice form on the push-ups from Dennis Schroder, though.
Nuggets 120, Blazers 115 (DEN leads 2-1) — They don’t run on Dame Time on Austin Rivers Island. Damian Lillard had 13 on 5/9 shooting in the fourth. Austin Rivers had 16 in the fourth on 5/6 shooting with four threes.
It’s the Rivers Family Redemption Summer. Another summer of hard decisions for Portland if they lose two more. Nikola Jokic is a god.
WNBA
Schedule
All times Eastern.
FRIDAY
Knicks at Hawks, 7, ESPN (Series tied 1-1)
Mystics at Sun, 7, Facebook
Sparks at Sky, 8, CBS Sports Network
Nets at Celtics, 8:30, ABC (BKN leads 2-0)
Clippers at Mavericks, 9:30, ESPN (DAL leads 2-0)
Lynx at Storm, 10, CBS Sports Network
Fever at Aces, 10:30, Twitter
SATURDAY
Bucks at Heat, 1:30, TNT (MIL leads 3-0)
Dream at Liberty, 2, Amazon Prime
Nuggets at Blazers, 4, TNT (DEN leads 2-1)
Sixers at Wizards, 7, ESPN (PHI leads 2-0)
Mercury at Wings, 8
Jazz at Grizzlies, 9:30, ESPN (Series tied 1-1)
SUNDAY
Knicks at Hawks, 1, ABC (Game 4)
Suns at Lakers, 3:30, ABC (LAL leads 2-1)
Sparks at Sky, 6, Facebook
Fever at Aces, 6
Nets at Celtics, 7, TNT (Game 4)
Sun at Lynx, 7
Clippers at Mavericks, 9, TNT (Game 4)
Links
Carey Chow at The Undefeated on how Jeremy Lin’s career mirrors the current Asian American movement. Really important, thoughtful piece.
Paolo Uggetti on how Damian Lillard makes Dame Time happen.
The great Chris Herrington on Ja Morant’s sublime playoff performance and what it bodes.
Logan Murdock on Trae Young’s career as a villain. Hey, the NBA can’t be all heroes, it needs some villains and antiheroes too! Thank you to Trae for stepping up.
Matt Ellentuck on Jonquel Jones’ dominance.
Another one for the “Fans Can Be The Worst” files, getting full this week: three Jazz fans were booted from Game 2 and banned indefinitely for what the team called a “verbal altercation.” Ja Morant’s dad reveals what those fans said. Vile stuff. Good on Donovan Mitchell for the solidarity. The vast majority of fans are decent and good, even when they heckle. The idiots ruin the vibe for everyone else. Speak on it, KD.
Speaking of fans, this whole debate about whether or not NBA players have been subjected to racist comments in Boston is absurd. Number 1, I am positive NBA players have been subjected to racist comments in every arena the NBA has ever used. See above. There is a subset of NBA fans who say straight-up vile stuff, even in 2021. Number 2, go talk to Bill Russell if you question claims that some people in Boston have expressed racist sentiments to Black NBA players. Simply absurd comments from Danny Ainge.
Dan Devine on what the Bucks are doing to the Heat.
Liz Cambage on calling out Curt Miller and the aftermath.
How will the Mercury adjust without Diana Taurasi?
Kirk Goldsberry on ESPN Insider on Luka Doncic’s leap. ($)
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading along for PLAYOFF WEEK 1. Back Monday with reaction to the weekend’s slate and more. Be excellent to each other.