Holy s--t the Lakers are really going to miss the play-in

A slow-motion collapse punctuated with a disaster weekend. This is unbelievable.

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This is incredible: it appears that the Lakers will miss the NBA play-in tournament. It’s been clear for a while that L.A. would, for the second straight year, not get a top-6 seed to ensure a playoff spot at the end of the regular season. But it didn’t seem possible that they’d also fall out of the four play-in spots.

Even as of Friday before their showdown with the Pelicans, the Lakers clearly controlled their own destiny. They had Anthony Davis back. LeBron James appeared available. And hey, if you make the play-in … strange things can happen.

And yet here we are: the Lakers lost to the Pelicans on Friday and the Nuggets on Sunday (without LeBron James in the latter). The Spurs won their weekend set against the tanking Blazers, and are close to claiming the final play-in spot. The Lakers have lost six straight and are two games out of No. 10 in the West without the tiebreaker. The model at Playoff Status gives the Lakers a 1% chance of making the play-in at this point.

The Spurs’ magic number to eliminate the Lakers is just two. San Antonio’s closing schedule is brutal, but the situation is that L.A. needs to win at least three of its last four games — at Suns, at Warriors, vs. Thunder, at Nuggets — to stay alive. If the Spurs win one more game, the Lakers need to win out. That’s … unlikely to happen. The Lakers could be officially eliminated as soon as TUESDAY with a loss to Phoenix and a Spurs’ win over Denver.

Look how improbable this was.

That’s each West team’s running win percentage for the season. You can see that at the halfway mark of the season, the Lakers are in the mix: they are No. 7 in the conference, but within a game or so of No. 5. L.A. at that point is ahead of the Clippers and Timberwolves and well ahead of the Pelicans and Spurs. The Pelicans and Spurs, in fact, at that point are even with the Kings, just behind the Blazers and barely head of the Thunder! At the halfway mark of the season, the Pels and Spurs were each 15-26. The Lakers were 21-20: hugely disappointing but in the mix for a middle seed.

Since that point, you can see in the chart that one team worse than the Lakers at midseason has improved mightly (the Wolves, 25-13 since the halfway mark), one team has stayed about the same (the Clippers, 19-19 since the halfway mark) and the two usurpers have moderately improved: the Pelicans have gone 19-18 and the Spurs have gone 18-19. But the Lakers have collapsed: they are 10-27 since the halfway mark.

Here’s a bit of perspective: the Portland Trail Blazers were 16-25 at the halfway mark. Two weeks later, they began dismantling the roster, first trading Norman Powell for parts and quickly thereafter moving C.J. McCollum. The Blazers went into full-on tank mode. Almost two months ago.

And yet, since the halfway mark the Blazers have been better than the Lakers. Portland is 11-26, just better than the Lakers’ 10-27 record.

This is an incredible slow-motion collapse for the Lakers, who won a championship just two years ago. When Anthony Davis went down with the Lakers hovering around .500, it looked bad. It appeared possible — not inevitable, but possible — that they’d have to win a spot in the playoffs for the second straight year. But there was no realm in which it seemed plausible that Los Angeles would collapse so severely that they’d lose a spot in the play-in tournament. And if they did, you’d think a chasing team like the Spurs would have had to do better than 18-19 down the stretch to catch them. But nope! The Lakers have been that bad.

You just heheheheh hate to ahahahaha see it.