Here's the situation in the Western Conference

Your friendly neighborhood newsletter tries to boil what remains at stake and who is in preferred position to win it.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Wheatfield With Crows, Vincent van Gogh, 1890

Earlier this week, we looked at the remaining stakes in the Eastern Conference. Since then, the situation appears even further etched: all indications are that there will not be any movement among the top five teams in the conference. The biggest question marks at this point:

• Will the Nets hold off the Heat for No. 6 (aka an outright playoff berth)?

• Will the Hawks, Raptors or Bulls claim No. 8 (aka a double-elimination path to the playoffs)?

The probability models think the Nets have it wrapped up, but I’m skeptical the models understand truly how different the current Nets are compared to the pre-deadline Nets. Then again, Brooklyn has a cupcake schedule remaining and Miami has played erratically all season.

With 5-6 games remaining for each team, let’s turn our attention to the Western Conference. Spoiler alert: it’s still an uncertain mess. But we can bring some order to this. I’m using the probability models at Playoff Status and Basketball-Reference.

Definitely In The Top 6
Denver Nuggets (51-25)
Memphis Grizzlies (48-28)
Sacramento Kings (46-30)

Almost Assuredly In The Top 6
Phoenix Suns (41-35)

Possibly In The Top 6, Almost Assuredly In The Play-In At Minimum
Los Angeles Clippers (41-36)
Golden State Warriors (40-37)
Minnesota Timberwolves (39-38)

Possibly In The Top 6, Probably In The Play-In At Minimum
New Orleans Pelicans (39-38)

Possibly In The Top 6, Possibly Out Completely
Los Angeles Lakers (38-38)

Play-In Or Bust
Oklahoma City Thunder (38-39)
Dallas Mavericks (37-40)
Utah Jazz (36-40)

That’s 12 teams, one of which (Utah) isn’t currently playing line-ups that indicates it is all that interested in participating after the regular season finale. Yet Utah remains in reach of a play-in spot.

Here’s an alternate way of framing this.