GMIB's First and Only 2020 NBA Mock Draft
Let's mock.
Good morning. Let’s mock. (There are a few links at the bottom, as well.)
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I have less of feel for the 2020 NBA Draft class than usual, and that’s saying something. Maybe it was the fact that I was launching this newsletter in the middle of the last college basketball season, one that ended abruptly before the tournament because of the pandemic. Oh well. After reading what I can and watching what I can, here’s something like a mock draft mixed with my take on player/team fits. If you’re read me in past years, you’ll know I am avowed believer in taking the best player available, or at least the one that projects to the best player within their rookie deal. Err in favor of potential superstars over solid doubles, unless you’re a contender looking to round out your attack.
In addition to slotting players in pick spots I’m going to argue whether or not teams should simply trade out. I won’t propose that they trade out for specific assets, because frankly until we get a trade we don’t know what the actual market out there is like.
I have no inside knowledge and must insist you don’t take this all that seriously.
1. Timberwolves: TRADE OUT, let someone else take Anthony Edwards
Minnesota doesn’t need any of the three players in play for the No. 1 pick (LaMelo Ball, Edwards or James Wiseman). They need wing defense and shooting, mostly. I wrote about this last month. The Wolves need multiple good players to help Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell make a playoff push than they need a project creator. If you trade out, you can potentially turn one iffy pick into multiple players who can help sooner. That’s my case.
I think Edwards could be really solid, potentially a star in the NBA. But we’ve seen better prospects in a similar vein not translate due to effort and speed-of-the-game issues, and so while he’s the best bet at No. 1, it’s a bet I feel the Wolves should avoid.
2. Warriors: TRADE OUT, let someone else take James Wiseman
There’s a case for Golden State to begin to build its next dynasty by taking a high-end prospect who can develop on a really good team and be in position to rule in four years as Stephen Curry and Draymond Green age. (Klay Thompson will never age.) I think that case is strong; here’s Kevin O’Connor making that case specifically about Wiseman. I’m not convinced any of the players in this draft are worth that gambit when the Warriors could instead leverage their pick for more help in the immediate title quests to come.
In other words, if we were talking about Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, you take the player and incorporate him into a contender. When it’s Wiseman, Ball or Deni Avdija, the opportunity isn’t so attractive and it might be better to pick up a rotation player to move back or get another future draft opportunity, deferring this chance to a better draft year.
The wrinkle here is that the Warriors have a lightly protected Wolves 2021 first-rounder, so they could get their bite at a highly rated 19- or 20-year-old prospect a year from now.
Wiseman could be quite a good fast-break and pick-and-roll center in the NBA — he’s enormous and athletic and seems to have good hands, if not good handles — and I think Charlotte should do everything in their power to land him.
3. Hornets: TRADE UP for James Wiseman, let someone else take LaMelo Ball
The Hornets have their work cut out for them because I presume multiple teams recognize the opportunity to trade up into the top-2 to land their preferred prospect, and Wiseman is a big target. With a team like the Warriors sitting their at No. 2, the pressure to act instead of hoping Wiseman falls to No. 3 must be immense.
If the Hornets find that the Warriors are either set on Wiseman at No. 2 or have a solid deal in place to trade No. 2 to a Wiseman-seeking team that Charlotte can’t/won’t beat, then the Hornets have three options: take a non-Ball big at No. 3 (this is probably Onyeka Okongwu), take Ball and sell his rights off to the highest bidder, or take Ball and hope for the best.
Could Ball became an NBA star? Yes. Will he? I’m pretty skeptical, and based on all of the reports coming out (smokescreens or otherwise) I think much of the league is, too. He’s quite similar to his brother Lonzo Ball, right? And while Lonzo is an NBA starter who still has a good bit of promise, we have seen the limitations of a big point guard with impressive vision, no scoring touch and a constitutional opposition to drawing fouls, right?
4. Bulls: TAKE Deni Avdija
The Israeli wing Avdija is a consensus pick at No. 4 among many of the top mock drafts. It makes sense. It feels like he could fit well with Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter and provide a real offensive spark for a team that could use it. He’s also the type of prospect that translates quickly based on playing professionally for years now in Israel.
One note: my boy Ricky O’Donnell at SB Nation has Killian Hayes at No. 4, arguing that Chicago does not have a star-level offensive maestro yet and should be trying to get one. I don’t disagree with that strategy, and Chicago is guard-light overall. I buy it!
5. Cavaliers: TAKE Onyeka Okongwu
I’m actually excited about the Cleveland Cavaliers! Collin Sexton had a rip-roaring finish to his season, and Darius Garland is … well, he’s still interesting. Andre Drummond is sticking around for this season as Cleveland tries to break into the East’s top-8. I’m not at all certain that the Cavaliers can escape Kevin Love’s deal — he has three more years remaining — and the best move there might be to play Kevin Love, given that’s still a really good offensive player, something Cleveland needs!
But given the timelines of the key players involved, I think Okongwu is too good to pass up, even if he’s splitting time with Drummond and Love in a relatively crowded frontcourt this season.
Here’s a 40-minute clip of Okongwu breaking down his own film in comparison to that of Bam Adebayo with ESPN’s Mike Schmitz. Weird but amazing!
(Galaxy brain thought: the Warriors take Okongwu No. 2 and trade Draymond Green for a starting wing.)
6. Hawks: TAKE Devin Vassell
Vassell is my second favorite player in the draft behind Okongwu, and I think he’s a perfect fit with the Hawks, who desperately need some defenders and should certainly continue to prioritize shooting around Trae Young. Every clip I see of Vassell from Florida State just screams that he’s going to be a solid NBA player.
Some team is going to have to decide between Vassell and Isaac Okoro, and Okoro has been higher on most mock drafts. To me, it’s shooting vs. physical strength. In the modern NBA, is there even a question?
(That said, I like Okoro too. Drafting for wing defense only doesn’t work out when said defender doesn’t have a translatable offensive skill. See: Wesley Johnson. Okoro’s handle seems good enough for the NBA, and he’s strong enough to finish.)
7. Pistons: TRADE UP for Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball or James Wiseman or just TAKE Killian Hayes
The Pistons feel like a huge pivot point as a top contender to trade up for a prospect Troy Weaver and the new Detroit front office love and holes all over the roster. There’s no guarantee they will pay to keep Christian Wood (they should!) and Blake Griffin’s trade value is not in great shape. Readers know that I believe in Sekou Doumbouya, and Bruce Brown and Luke Kennard are NBA players. But you need a star still. So if you believe in Ball, Edwards or Wiseman (even Okongwu) as that star of the future, go get him. (There’s also a non-zero chance Ball or Okongwu falls to you at No. 7.)
If the price is too steep or you don’t believe in any of the top prospects, here’s your chance to get a potentially really nice player to add to the mix. The French Hayes is said to be well-equipped to run NBA-style pick and roll and defend NBA guards. Also, he’s a lefty. You don’t have to tell me twice!
If Hayes lands in Chicago, New York or Detroit, I have him as the Rookie of the Year favorite.
8. Knicks: TRADE UP into the top 3 or TAKE Isaac Okoro
The Knicks are in a similar position as the Pistons (they both even have new front offices). The Knicks should also be in competition with the Pistons for Hayes, if he falls to the mid-lottery as I’m guessing here. If Leon Rose’s front office really wants Ball or Edwards, New York should be able to go get them. If not, adding a strong defender in Okoro will be music to Tom Thibodeau’s ears.
9. Wizards: TAKE Obi Toppin
Along with Ball and Edwards, Toppin is one of the prospects I’m not feeling in this class. He dominated in college playing inside-out but all indications are that his defense projects to be a huge minus in the NBA. That said, scorers score and the Wizards will probably be rough (again) on defense anyway. Washington needs bigs and I think Toppin could work well with the Bradley Beal-John Wall backcourt. Okoro or Vassell would be better here, but if they’re off the board and you really don’t want to add a guard who needs to play big minutes right away, Toppin is probably the pick.
10. Suns: TAKE Aaron Nesmith
Phoenix doesn’t actually need anything at all, but add a dead-eye shooter who doesn’t need the ball to impact the game? Sure!
11. Spurs: TAKE Precious Achiuwa
I almost put Tyrese Halliburton here, except I think San Antonio is pretty guard-heavy right now and defensive versatility from a big man is a huge deal that the Spurs really don’t have.
12. Kings: TAKE Patrick Williams
It’s very foreign to me to see the Kings in the lottery and not pleading with them to take a point guard, but such is the way forward with De’Aaron Fox. Williams is a swingy defender who could study under Harrison Barnes and take Kent Bazemore’s role.
13. Pelicans: TAKE Tyrese Haliburton
If Jrue Holiday is on his way out, and J.J. Redick in his mid-30s with a short contract, adding some cheap perimeter scoring punch to the Zion Williamson-Brandon Ingram combo is a smart move. And Stan Van Gundy loves shooters.
14. Celtics: TRADE UP or TAKE Jalen Smith
Boston has three first-round picks and not a whole lot of roster space, so there are rampant rumors the Celtics are trying to move up into the top 10. If they don’t, it feels like the team is not totally convinced about Robert or Grant Williams and a value flyer on defense-first big man Jalen Smith might be a good play.
Links
The Kings hired Mark Jones as their new primary play-by-play broadcaster. An incredible pull for the franchise, frankly.
The Ringer’s 10 biggest questions going into the NBA Draft.
Mike Sykes on how politics changed the sneaker game forever.
Scott Hines’ requiem for Alex Trebek. Here’s Claire McNear on the famed game show host.
Which program produces better pros, Duke or Kentucky?
Be excellent to each other.