Draymond Green vs. an unstable market

PLUS: Chris Paul reveals that Isiah Thomas is definitely helping to run the Suns.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

But first, Camille Pissarro’s Two Women Chatting By the Sea from 1856.

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I Don’t Think Ja Morant Is Going to Serve a 25-Game Suspension

Ja Morant and the players’ union have more than three weeks to decide whether to appeal Adam Silver’s decision to suspend the Grizzlies guard 25 games over flashing a firearm on a friend’s Instagram Live a couple months after Morant was suspended eight games for flashing a firearm on his own Instagram Live. I have no information beyond what’s been publicly available, but I cannot imagine Morant or the union will pass up the opportunity to appeal, because there is no precedent for this type of sanction for this type of violation.

The union, in fact, has already been more vocal in opposition of a league decision since it has on any matter since Tamika Tremaglio took over 18 months ago.

“Ja has expressed his remorse and accepted responsibility for his actions, and we support him unequivocally as he does whatever is necessary to represent himself, our players and our league in the best possible light,” Tremaglio said. “As to the discipline imposed, which keeps him off the court until December and requires some unstated conditions to be met before he can return, we believe it is excessive and inappropriate for a number of reasons including the facts involved in this particular incident, and that it is not fair and consistent with past discipline in our league.”

It is definitely not consistent with past discipline, especially since it isn’t clear Morant violated any laws in either gun incident. The NBA — especially since Adam Silver took over in 2014 — has been more likely to be lenient toward players with off-court issues, even those that escalate to criminal acts. The 8-game suspension was handed down after Morant and the Grizzlies had already separated him from the team to get help for stress management, which most of us read as an intervention for substance dependency (whether it was or not).

Here’s that timeline again: the initial incident happened on March 4, and the Grizzlies immediately kept him away from the team. Morant met with Silver on March 15, which is when the league announced the 8-game suspension, which ended … March 20. Most of the suspension was already served. That was a way for the NBA to announce a big punishment without really enforcing one.

I suspect this will end up in a similar spot after appeal. With a 25-game suspension announced but the NBA not really releasing any new information that would suggest the situation is worse than we already think (which is really bad, at least for me), it seems clear to me that the league broadly and Silver specifically is trying to make a point. That point seems more likely to survive public opinion than arbitration.

David Stern did this sometimes: laid out a massive suspension to make a point, knowing full well that arbitration would tamp down the punishment. I think this became a little personal for Silver after Morant came to speak to him and told the commissioner whatever the commissioner wanted to hear … only to make a very similar mistake within months.

I hope this whole situation really does get through to Ja and the people around him that life is nothing to play with. I hope he gets help and that no one gets hurt.

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A Few Words Regarding the Zion Off-Court Stuff

No, absolutely not.

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The Machinations of Draymond

Draymond Green will reportedly opt out of his contract to become a free agent with hopes of locking in a long-term deal. All reports make it sound like the Warriors are motivated to bring him back, and that his preference is to remain with Golden State. But weird things happen when non-max players become free agents in deeply unstable market situations (which the current NBA qualifies given the phasing-in collective bargaining agreement changes).