Does Chris Paul have another revival left?
OKC's wonderful 2019-20 season has CP3 back on the rumor mill. Can he provide a spark for another rising team?
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
The rumor mill once again features Chris Paul is pretty heavy rotation. The Thunder breaking off their long relationship with Billy Donovan signals that a true rebuild is on the horizon in Oklahoma City, and CP3 is 35 years old with $85 million left on his deal over the next two seasons. OKC didn’t seem terribly interested in simply getting off of his contract before the 2019-20 season and certainly not at the February trade deadline, in the throes of a masterful effort from CP3 and a team he and Donovan rallied to compete in the West’s second tier.
But all of that is over now, and while it still seems OKC isn’t interested in a cap dump just for the sake of moving on, it seems highly possible Paul will be moved for assets in the offseason.
This time around, what types of teams should be interested?
I think Jimmy Butler’s immense success with the Miami Heat is instructive.
CP3 isn’t Butler. The outward personalities are different, the skills are different. But there’s a core principle in each that seems alike, and Butler’s ability to organize, motivate and lead the Heat through example on the court is something we just saw CP3 do in Oklahoma City. Butler and CP3 are superstar glue guys — tough, demanding leaders who, in the right circumstances, amplify the team’s strengths and set forth of spirit of impending triumph.
You just need the right circumstances. Famously, Butler did not find the right circumstances in Minnesota and to a degree Philadelphia. CP3 wore down a group he had lifted up in Los Angeles and didn’t mesh with the crew (meaning James Harden) in Houston. But Miami for Butler and OKC for CP3 — that worked. The workman-like attitude of the incumbent players, the lack of superstar egos, the unthreatened head coaches, the realistic expectations: that was the canvas Butler and CP3 needed to do their best work as leaders and players.
So what’s the answer for CP3? If he won’t continue to do that for the Thunder — which, honestly, I don’t see why OKC would short-circuit that without a high-end young point guard to take his place — where does he fit?
Milwaukee is already a great regular season team with a superstar in place. CP3 is a much stronger on-court leadership presence than any player on the roster. Working out a deal would likely create enormous ruptures in the Bucks’ supporting cast, but the upside of adding CP3’s proven playoff production and his innate leadership is enormous.
At the other end of the East standings, both Charlotte (in CP3’s home state!) and Orlando provide alluring visions of immediate success. The Hornets have an OK talent base but CP3 would immediately be the best player on the team, assuming health. The key is that he’d make players like P.J. Washington, Devonte’ Graham and Miles Bridges better immediately, and potentially improve the trajectory of their careers after he fades or leaves. It might not have the same effect for Terry Rozier, but then Dennis Schroder just had his best NBA season, didn’t he?
Orlando remains in no man’s land, and will be without Jonathan Isaac (the brightest young star on the roster) next season. Markelle Fultz is the point guard of the near future for the Magic, but seeing what an experienced, steady point guard like CP3 could do with some combination of Fultz, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic (whoever isn’t moved for CP3) is alluring.
Detroit has been mentioned in the rumor mill going back to last summer. It’s in a similar class to the Hornets: some good talent on the roster (Christian Wood, Sekou Doumbouya, Bruce Brown) who could really use an on-court maestro and off-court ass-kicker like CP3. I think it probably requires moving Blake Griffin. That break-up between he and CP3 was a bit messy. But then OKC might be a perfect spot for Oklahoma native Griffin to rehabilitate his career. Griffin and a future pick for CP3?
Minnesota should be off the table after acquiring D’Angelo Russell. I would take Miami off the table completely even though it might work and be brilliant. The Heat are coming awful close to a championship as is, and while you don’t want to rest on your laurels while the other East contenders try to improve, disrupting the amazing thing Butler and Erik Spoelstra have going is just an enormous risk. But then it’s Pat Riley we’re talking about, right? And Goran Dragic is a free agent. I am substantially more risk-averse than Pat Riley, so who knows?
The perfect non-Bucks match for me, though, is Phoenix.
On one hand, you really don’t want to mess up what the Suns are doing too much — they freaking went 8-0 in the bubble! And Ricky Rubio was an excellent fit at point guard. But the Suns have a 10-year playoff drought running. The West playoff bracket isn’t getting any easier to crack with the Memphis ascendance, the New Orleans revival and a likely return to excellence for Golden State. Running back the 8-0 team is a big risk. That team wasn’t good enough before the shutdown. A hot, spirited run in the bubble is more likely to be an aberration than the 65 games that came before it (Phoenix was 26-39 in those games).
Replacing Rubio with Chris Paul would give Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges and Kelly Oubre a real kick. CP3 played under Monty Williams in New Orleans, so there’s an established relationship there. CP3 worked with James Jones within the NBA players’ union before Jones flipped to team management. Jones is also a close ally of LeBron James, one of CP3’s best friends in the league. So if CP3 needs convincing this is a good idea, the Suns have people to do it. And one presumes Williams and Jones are pro-CP3 more generally speaking.
Monty, an old point guard himself, will trust CP3 to run the team on the court. The on-court and (one hopes) off-court benefits to Ayton would potentially be enormous. The question is how replacing the beloved Rubio would hit Booker, and how Booker would respond to CP3’s aggressive leadership style. I mean, Booker is a star in the way Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t when CP3 arrived (and still isn’t). Booker fancies himself in a certain stratum of talent. There’s a non-zero chance this ends up like Jimmy Butler’s relationships with Karl-Anthony Towns and Ben Simmons. If Booker chafes under a CP3 regime, this becomes a disaster.
In this case, as opposed to with Miami, to me that’s a risk worth taking. The playoff drought is an enormous embarrassment to Phoenix. And it’s a long-term risk for Booker’s future there. Ending it at almost any cost that isn’t certain alienation of Booker should be the goal. If it’s less than a 50-50 risk that Booker bristles at CP3’s leadership, and if the price from OKC is right (no Booker, Ayton or Bridges, and not both of Oubre and Cam Johnson), then I think the Suns should go for it.
The upside is that the Suns replace the Thunder in the playoffs and maybe win a series (who knows?). Ayton reaches his immense potential under CP3, launching him into a career alongside Booker competiting for All-NBA nods. Booker learns how to defend under the tutelage of CP3 and Williams and commits to competing on both ends. Bridges continues his development. And CP3 rides off into the sunset, again taking a franchise further than it’s been in a long time.
CP3 to the Suns. Who’s coming with me?
Photo by Getty Images Sport
Schedule
Reminder, Game 5 is FRIDAY. So that means we’ll have a Saturday newsletter. No pro basketball on Thursday.
Links
The Storm talk about what this season and this championship means to them.
Lindsay Gibbs on the all-women ownership team that runs the Seattle Storm.
Kevin O’Connor on the Heat’s tremendous upside.
Pressure revealed who the Lakers are as a team.
Kings officially named Alvin Gentry the new associate head coach. There are blaring sirens around Luke Walton going into next season. New general manager, open feud with the team’s second or third best player (Buddy Hield), experienced head coach in the wings.
Sterling Brown is using his endorsement deal with Puma to get funding for a youth charity he and his brother run in Illinois. And also … am I the last person in NBAland to realize Shannon Brown is Sterling’s brother?!
If the Lakers finish the job, what should they do instead of a title parade?
Epic pickleball competition in the bubble.
You all know this is a decidedly pro-Benito publication, so here’s a tour de force profile of Bad Bunny from Carina del Valle Schorske in the New York Times.
Be excellent to each other.