Did the Heat just get lucky (again)? An investigation

Spoiler alert: give the Heat credit, sheesh!

Good morning. There are lots of screenshots in today’s piece, so you’ll want to click the headline to open it in a browser to see the full thing. Let’s basketball.

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The Miami Heat won a thriller in Game 2. Here’s the scoring chart to show just how wild this game was, in case you missed it.

The Heat had two different double-digit leads in the game, separated by two quarters in which Denver had built up to a 15-point lead briefly. The fourth quarter has become the focus for obvious reasons. The Nuggets finished the third on a 6-0 run to take an 8-point lead. As Michael Malone was explaining to Lisa Salters on the broadcast (in a sideline interview recorded a couple minutes prior) that the Nuggets needed to show attention to detail on defense, the Denver defense was crumbling before our eyes.

One of the debates in the aftermath of the Heat win was whether this is just another “variance” game for Miami in which they inexplicably shoot better than they did all season and thus become unbeatable. I think that denies the Nuggets credit — or in this case blame — for some pretty obvious mistakes.

I went back through to watch each Miami fourth quarter possession. There’s some bit of it that is tough shot-making. There’s more of it that is poor Denver defense colliding with smart Miami play design and excellent Heat execution.

Let’s go through them.

Miami’s first possession of the quarter. Gabe Vincent drives the lane, drawing the attention of four Nuggets.

That is … uh, too many Nuggets. Vincent kicks to Kyle Lowry, who makes the extra pass to Duncan Robinson. Jamal Murray has to close a lot of space, so Robinson pump-fakes him out of the play and no one helps.

Robinson ends up wide open on the three. Miami beat the defense.

After Jeff Green free throws on the other end (7-point Denver lead), things get really bad for the Nuggets.

This is Duncan Robinson blowing by Jamal Murray on the baseline with the lay-up plus the foul. Another Murray defensive failure. The help defense at the rim is weak. Miami beat the defense.

Robinson misses the free throw. 5-point Denver lead.

Next possession, the Nuggets defend Miami’s action well enough to wear down the shot clock. Finding little, Robinson pulls up over Jeff Green. Tough shot from long distance with a hand in his face. It goes in.

This is a case where the Denver defense held up and Miami still made a shot. 2-point game.

Next possession. Nikola Jokic back in the game. He’s playing off Bam Adebayo at the top. Denver knows what happens when teams play off of high-IQ passing centers with shooters on the floor, right? The Nuggets are familiar with this style? Anyway, Gabe Vincent sets a pindown for Robinson in the strongside corner.

Both defenders go with Robinson.

Practice shot for Vincent.

Miami takes the lead. Christian Braun appears to have totally blown that assignment, but remains in the game one more defensive possession.