Can anyone usurp the top tier of NBA title contenders?
Have the trades done anything real?
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
La Petite Irene; Pierre-Auguste Renoir; 1880
It’s pretty clear who sits in the top tier of NBA championship contenders. There’d be minimal debate about including these three teams:
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics
Oklahoma City Thunder
Two were preseason favorites to make the Finals and have been excellent this season; the other wasn’t a preseason favorite but is on pace to win 67 games. There’s no reasonable case to be made that any of those three teams are incapable of winning the championship this season.
I’d include one more team in that upper tier, though I understand if there is some dissent.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets won the title two years ago, have the best player in the world, and are 25-9 since figuring out their rotation after a slow start. There are two other teams not in the top tier with slightly better records than Denver, but the Nuggets’ recent history offers more confidence on postseason success.
So there’s a 4-team top tier with a pair in each conference. The question now is who makes up the second tier after the major trades of this month, and whether any of those teams can reasonably usurp the top tier teams and make the Finals.
In my estimation, it’s not wide open … but it’s plausible.
SECOND TIER
New York Knicks
The Knicks have an elite offense with a very dynamic duo plus hard-nosed and versatile defenders and shooters around them. I’d feel better if we’d seen Mitchell Robinson in action or if the team would have added a defense-first center at the deadline. The free agent center market is bleak. But the biggest problem for the Knicks is the Celtics, who New York is on track to face in Round 2. The top three in the East aren’t quite locked in, but it’s pretty set. The Knicks have had huge trouble with Boston, which is to be expected because everyone has huge trouble with Boston. Cleveland will, too!
Milwaukee Bucks
Perhaps the second tier is too generous for a team that hasn’t looked confident for more than a week or two at a time all season, but Giannis is still an absolute marvel, and both he and Dame Lillard are proven playoff performers. The Bucks will likely end up in the 4-6 range, which would mean a series against any of the Pistons, Pacers and Knicks in the first round. The best case is probably a 4-5 match-up with Detroit — a lovely story but perhaps not quite seasoned for a playoff series against Giannis — followed by a big test of Cleveland. Again, Giannis has been an incredible playoff performer. Dame has some signature moments. Health is the issue here. If they get right on a good timeline and stay well, it’s hard to count them out.
Memphis Grizzlies
My philosophy is that you have to respect the record. Memphis is on pace to win 55 games. They have a really solid rotation and two stars at the top of it. The Grizzlies are No. 5 in offense and No. 7 in defense, and No. 4 in net rating (ahead of New York and Denver). They don’t fit the mold of a contender and don’t have recent playoff success to lean back on (one series win in this era). But OKC is similarly unproven in the playoffs, and Denver has proven to be vulnerable depending on how Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are playing. Memphis isn’t nearly as good as OKC and doesn’t have a player close to Jokic’s level. But the depth and consistent excellence might be enough.
Los Angeles Lakers
Luka was the best player on the West champs last season. OKC couldn’t do anything with him. Minnesota couldn’t do anything with him. No one in the league is more “proven” in the playoffs than LeBron. I will not rule it out, and I 100% believe that none of the higher-rated teams in the West want the Lakers in their bracket. That’s another thing here: the Lakers have a really good record. They are on pace for a 50-win season; this is the best regular season Lakers team by record since the championship. The team’s net rating hasn’t been as impressive thanks to close wins and blowout losses, but it’s the win-loss ledger that counts in the end. L.A. is on the cusp of taking the No. 4 seed from Houston. Who’s going to be confident about picking a second round OKC-L.A. series despite how amazing the Thunder have looked and how exceptional Shai has been? We saw Luka shred that team nine months ago (albeit without Alex Caruso).
Los Angeles Clippers
On my gravestone it will read: “Died still believing in the L.A. Clippers, much to his readers’ chagrin.” Sorry not sorry! Harden, Kawhi, Norm and Zu are a terrific quartet. The team has the second best defense in the NBA with minimal Kawhi so far. The second best defense! An elite plus James Harden has a solid record of success in the NBA. Not a championship record, mind you. But that’s what the Kawhi and the Norm are for! (Yes, reminder: Norm won a title with Kawhi in the Great White North.) You know who else has a championship record? Tyronn Lue, who is the best coach in the conference (apologies to Mark Daigneault). The obvious questions about this team are … obvious. But these are unprecedented times, folks.
THIRD TIER
That’s it. I have four teams in the top tier of championship contenders — teams for which a title this season would not be a surprise. I have five teams in the second tier — teams for which a title would be relatively surprising, or would have required some extraordinarily extraordinary performance from one or more individuals or an explainable failure by one or more Tier 1 contenders (such as a critical injury or meltdown) or both.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were by far the most difficult cut here because they beat the Nuggets a year ago when the Nuggets felt unbeatable. I just think they are not as difficult a match-up as they were with Towns, the defense has not been as consistent and the point guard situation is a real problem.
The Houston Rockets were not a difficult cut — I think the last month or so has shown that the team needs either more seasoning or a different ingredient or two.
The Indiana Pacers: a little confounding because they are pretty good and did make the East finals last season. It just never feels unstoppable any longer, and the defense is in the league’s bottom 10.
The Golden State Warriors: we’re going to need to see more than one week of Jimmy Butler influencing winning on the court and we’re going to need to see someone other than Steph consistently make shots. (This team is not in the same ballpark as the Lakers. They weren’t before the trades, and they aren’t after.)
The Orlando Magic: something’s off with Paolo and Franz after the injuries. Maybe they recapture it and edge into the second tier. But coming out of the play-in means facing the Celtics or Cavaliers in Round 1 and that’s bad news. We’ll revisit if they can climb into the top six. (Orlando is 2.5 games behind Detroit for No. 6 right now. The Magic do have the tiebreaker.)
The other teams do not merit a mention here.
Any objections? Any wrinkles? Any *thoughts*?
Scores
Kings 133, Pelicans 140 — A game of collapses. The Kings offense seized up as DeMar DeRozan missed tough jumper after tough jumper to let New Orleans go on a late run in regulation to get a lead. Then the Pelicans fouled up three with 10 seconds left, but didn’t get the defensive rebound on the second free throw, letting Malik Monk sneak in for the board … and then fouling him (unintentionally). So it was overtime … where the Kings offense again seized up as DeMar DeRozan missed jumper after jumper.
C.J. McCollum is a born Kings killer.
Warriors 105, Rockets 98 — Houston’s February shooting woes continues. Golden State didn’t shoot well either, but Steph did his thing.
He also did this thing.
Golden State led by 24 and Houston got it to a 1-possession in the fourth. Alas, falling behind by 24 isn’t usually a good idea.
Thunder 101, Timberwolves 116 — Holy s—t, Anthony Edwards.
Both teams were ice cold from deep, but Minnesota was able to squeeze more offense out on getaway night. Big win heading into the break.
Is this Minnesota Nice?
Heat 113, Mavericks 118 — Miami is 4-7 since the last time Jimmy Butler played for them, and 0-4 since the trade deadline. Erik Spoelstra can’t seem to get a solid 8-man rotation available due to illnesses and nagging injuries.
As a result, Dallas wins without Kyrie, P.J. Washington, Klay Thompson or any of their big men. 6’7 Kessler Edwards played 40 minutes at center … and Dallas won. Daniel Gafford is out six weeks. AD is out at least three more weeks. Dereck Lively II is in a walking boot.
Clippers 120, Jazz 116 — Uh, Ben Simmons looked great in his Clippers debut.
Is he … kind of perfect for L.A. as a back-up center and “different look” option? Simmons has never played with a passer as good as James Harden, and James Harden has played with other great passers to extraordinary results. The Clippers have struggled to find a solution behind Ivica Zubac since Isaiah Hartenstein parted a couple years ago; Simmons is not just capable of those minutes, but changes up the attack in a way that could confound opponents. And the defense from him, Kawhi Leonard, Zubac and Kris Dunn … hmm. Clippers. Interesting.
Schedule
It’s All-Star Weekend.
The most interesting basketball on T.V. on Friday are the semifinals and finals of Unrivaled’s 1-on-1 tournament (7:30 PM Eastern, TNT). One side of the bracket is Aaliyah Edwards vs. Arike Ogunbowale. The other is Azura Stevens vs. Napheesa Collier. The surprising bit of the first few rounds is that size mattered a lot. Jewell Loyd and Kahleah Copper (two of my picks) got run. It’s up to you, Arike! (Phee feels like the overwhelming favorite.)
After the 1-on-1 tournament ends, TNT will have the Rising Stars Challenge (9 PM Eastern). Remember: the winner of this tournament will play against Team Shaq (which includes LeBron and Steph) on Sunday. So it would be hilarious if the G League Rising Stars team coached by Jeremy Lin and starring, uh, J.D. Davison, Mac McClung and Pat Spencer won. And then beat Team Shaq on Sunday. I can’t believe the NBA would rather potentially have G League players in the main event than add four more NBA All-Stars for teams of seven! This is unbelievable.
Over on ESPN, the Celebrity Game starts at 7 PM Eastern if watching Noah Kahan and Shaboozey face off is something you’re into.
On Saturday, there’s no Steph vs. Sabrina shoot-out. Just Mac McClung trying to threepeat in the dunk contest and the skills challenge and the big shoot-out and all that. 8 PM Eastern on TNT.
The main event is Sunday at 8 PM Eastern on TNT. Or sometime after 8 PM. Maybe closer to 9 PM. Hard to say.
Be excellent to each other.
NBA All-Star fever! Cure it!
I want so badly for Simmons to just be a weird athletic draymond type center, even if it's just bench minutes. Before all *that* happened, his defense and passing were such joys to watch.