Cade Cunningham and the quest to make theory reality

Plus four more important non-stars of the Central.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Standard Bearer; Rembrandt; 1636

In our journey across the most important non-stars on each NBA team, we move now to the Central Division.

Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

Here are some ways you can tell the Detroit Pistons braintrust wants to win a good number of games this year:

• They made Monty Williams one of the highest paid coaches in the NBA

• They haven’t traded Bojan Bogdanovic yet

OK, so that’s just two signals. But they are pretty big signals. The path to winning lots of games, however, is for one of Detroit’s (many) young prospects to break out, and Cade Cunningham, entering Year 3 in the NBA, remains the most likely and most impactful option.

Cunningham came around over the course of his rookie 2021-22 season, but then played just 12 games in 2022-23 due to a shin injury that required season-ending surgery. On one hand, the Pistons were just 3-9 on the season when Cunningham left the building. Detroit to that point had more losses of at least 24 points (four) than wins (three). It was a brutal start to what would again be a brutal season.

But there were positive signs for Cunningham through that slow team start with a few breakout performances, and a 20-6-6 average in the box score. He was shooting mid-range jumpers — a potential key to his abilities to draw defensive attention — quite efficiently. The tools that made him a top-flight recruit, a No. 1 overall pick — they were evident and present. And then poof, they were gone.

Are they back? Are they real? And can they make the Pistons relevant in a rather shallow Eastern Conference?

Max Strus, Cleveland Cavaliers

I have mostly avoided writing about “major” free agents in this exercise, and Strus straddles the line. It’s becoming clear that Strus has likely won a starting job to at least start the season in Cleveland. (Two of the many wings competing for time with the Cavaliers’ four All-Stars may actually start the season in the opening five if Jarrett Allen isn’t available.)

We all remember vividly what Strus did for the Heat in the Heat’s magical Finals run. Certainly that run is a major reason the Cavaliers ponied up in free agency to land Strus. It’s worth noting what Strus did before the playoffs, though, which is shoot just 35% from three on high volume during the regular season.

Now, Strus is reputed as a shooter and has the gravity to match. And he did shoot 41% on similar volume in 2021-22, and he is more than a shooter in that he can capably move the ball and defends hard (a must on Cleveland). He’s a good fit. But to get where the Cavaliers want to be, Strus might need to be a great fit.

The incumbent fifth starter in Cleveland — Isaac Okoro — was a defensive beast who opposing defenses completely ignored. Defenses won’t ignore Strus: his presence should make life a little easier for the four stars. But the question is how much Strus can punish those defenses, how much easier Strus can make life for the others, and whether Cleveland’s top-rated defense can hold up with Okoro in a smaller role. The Eastern Conference isn’t up for grabs by any means. But the No. 3 seed — and an easier path to a first-round victory, which seems like a minimal requirement going in — is ripe for the picking. If the Cavaliers do it, Strus should be a big reason why.

Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers

Buddy Hield’s future remains in the air, but the Pacers have a number of bodies to throw at opponents. Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner will definitely start games, and it’ll be fascinating to see what Rick Carlisle does beyond that.

Andrew Nembhard, the second most prominent sophomore on the Pacers behind Bennedict Mathurin, should figure prominently in any case. He started most of the 2022-23 season and proved to be a quite talented secondary playmaker alongside and behind Haliburton, averaging about 6 assists per 36 minutes. To play effectively with Haliburton, Nembhard will need to become a knockdown shooter and top-tier cutter. If it turns out Mathurin, Bruce Brown and someone like Obi Toppin get the starting slots, Nembhard has an opportunity to turn into a super-sub helping T.J. McConnell run the offense.

Nembhard’s role is in question because he’s missed preseason with a neck issue. Brown, Mathurin and Toppin started the Pacers’ most recent game, and Hield played good minutes. Carlisle showed lots of faith in Nembhard, though, in his rookie season, and it could be important to Indiana’s development that Nembhard level up as a sophomore.

Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls

I wrote about the Bulls at some length last month.

Who the Chicago Bulls truly are

As I noted, the Bulls shot up the defensive rankings in 2022-23 almost entirely because while offensive performance exploded across the NBA last season, Chicago slightly improved what had in 2021-22 been a middling defensive performance … and ended up No. 5 in the category overall as a result. The Bulls’ problem last year is that they did not experience an offensive explosion like seemingly every other team.

The one major defense-relevant change for the static Bulls roster from 2021-22 to 2022-23 was the presence of Patrick Williams. He played just 422 minutes two seasons ago and 2,323 minutes last year. And he is probably the Bulls’ best overall defender, with apologies to Alex Caruso’s pesky thievery.

Is that real? Is Williams really a cornerstone of a sustainably good defense in Chicago, or is he just the statistical beneficiary in the advanced individual defensive metrics of a good overall Bulls defense? Is the “good overall Bulls defense” a mirage? If Williams is a key positive for the Chicago defense, can he boost his offensive role enough to help the Bulls be good on that end too? Williams has shot efficiently on threes through his young NBA career … but he hasn’t shot nearly enough of them, and he’s not doing much else on offense.