A very important NBA All-Star starters mock draft
LeBron and Giannis are captains again. Who will they pick for their teams?
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Let’s basketball.
Dance at Le Moulin de la Galette, Pierre-Auguste Renoir
The 2020 NBA All-Star starters were announced on Thursday, with no surprises. Last Friday, I wrote that we knew eight of the 10 starters based on the fan vote to that point and common sense. Those eight all got in. The two spots with some mystery were the third frontcourt spot, where I wrote Pascal Siakam was the favorite with a chance Jimmy Butler could slide in (Siakam got it) and the second guard spot, where Trae Young was most likely but Derrick Rose was a possibility. Trae got it, and actually Kyrie Irving crept over Rose and Kyle Lowry for the first runner-up spot. The media actually had Trae No. 2, which is pretty interesting.
LeBron ended up as the leading overall vote-getter, and Giannis Antetokounmpo was tops in the East, so they will be the captains choosing teams next month, after coaches select the reserves.
So of course, it’s time for a mock draft.
Assuming the All-Star draft format remains the same as last year, all starters must be picked before reserves start getting selected. We’ll also presume James will get the first pick for the third straight year on accout of getting the most fan votes.
Let’s mock.
1. Team LeBron: Anthony Davis
LeBron famously picked Davis the first pick he was eligible as a reserve last year, leading to Giannis hilariously alleging tampering on national television. Fantastic. This time, LeBron gets to grab his teammate.
2. Team Giannis: Joel Embiid
This assumes Embiid will be back by February and isn’t replaced as an All-Star starter. Giannis picked Embiid early last year (after picking Steph Curry).
3. Team LeBron: Luka Doncic
Luka is a young guy LeBron might be slightly interested in bringing into his general orbit, especially since Luka is one of the few young players for whom LeBron — not Kobe — is the hero of the sport.
4. Team Giannis: Kawhi Leonard
LeBron could very well take Leonard at No. 3, but now that Giannis doesn’t need to fear him in the Eastern playoffs (just the NBA Finals) this would be a sufficient nod in the draft.
5. Team LeBron: Pascal Siakam
Neither captain showed an interest in drafting James Harden last year, and that might continue this year. (Or Giannis could pick him No. 2 overall. Who knows?) Siakam seems like a player LeBron would appreciate and a nice guy it’d be good to have around in the one All-Star practice teams have.
6. Team Giannis: Kemba Walker
Walker was the last pick among starters last year. He’s gotten better and these same two captains reluctance to pick Harden last year has really shaken me!
7. Team LeBron: James Harden
I think if left with the choice between Harden and Trae Young, LeBron will take The Beard if only to get Trae and Luka on opposite teams for the benefit of NBA Twitter.
8. Team Giannis: Trae Young
Clearly the least heralded All-Star, and a fitting last pick for All-Star. There’s also real potential Trae is the designated “Guy Who Takes All-Star Very Seriously” if Atlanta continues to lose at this rate and Trae keeps catching media insults over it. Pascal is the favorite for this role in the clubhouse, but Trae’s on the board.
Of course, we’ll have another mock once reserves are announced.
The Player Vote Is Not That Bad
For the third straight year since a player vote component was added to the All-Star starter ballot formula, there has been some grousing about the players not taking this as seriously as they should because of all of the random votes for low-tier players. These random one-off votes for low-tier players are, however, irrelevant in the grand scheme: they don’t materially affect the results because they are random and one-off. There isn’t a systematic effort by players to reward undeserving players: there’s just jokes.
The top four picks for the media vote and the players’ vote matched completely for the West frontcourt (the three starters and Nikola Jokic at No. 4). At No. 5, the media had Rudy Gobert and the players had Paul George. No controversy here.
In the West backcourt, the top three picks for the media and players’ vote matched fully — the two starters and Damian Lillard at No. 3. No one in the media pool gave any other West guard a vote. The players’ vote did include some votes for others, but not at a level that would have affected the final results.
In the East frontcourt, the media went (in this order) Giannis, Embiid, Butler, Siakam, Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis. The players’ top six went Giannis, Embiid, Siakam, Adebayo, Jayson Tatum, Butler. Butler is the material candidate here. But if the players would have matched the media vote and had Butler No. 3 and Siakam No. 4, Pascal still would have been the third reserve due to fan vote. So the players didn’t change anything here. And I find it fascinating that they dropped Butler so low.
There were some differences in the East backcourt, too. The media went (in this order) Kemba, Trae, Ben Simmons, Kyle Lowry, Bradley Beal. The players went Kemba, Beal, Trae, Simmons, Lowry. With Kyrie Irving finishing No. 6 in each of these ballots and No. 2 in the fan vote, there was no way in which Kemba and Trae would have missed out on being starters. The players pushing Beal so high (higher than even Trae, who was No. 2 in the media vote) is notable and interesting but not material in the end.
So this is the big takeaway from the player vote: ignoring the strays that didn’t matter, it matched the media vote closely and provided a reasonable (maybe even improved) perspective where it departed from the media vote.
Good job, everyone. The system works.
Scores
Lakers 128, Nets 113 — The first TNT game of the evening went into the half at 75-70, portending a big night for offense in the NBA. The Lakers were able to contain Brooklyn a little better in the second half. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving missed more shots than Spencer Dinwiddie took, but Dinwiddie did have 13 assists. We were all so concerned about the Kyrie-D’Angelo Russell fit issues before the sign-and-trade that we forgot to worry about the Kyrie-Dinwiddie fit!
Mavericks 133, Blazers 125 — What great fun run-and-gun basketball can be when played at a relatively high level. It was 45-37 at the end of the first quarter. Dallas hit 10 threes in the first frame. Damian Lillard finished with 47 points. Kristaps Porzingis and Trevor Ariza played well. Carmelo Anthony … uh, yeah, 7-21 shooting with C.J. McCollum out is tough. But overall, good basketball, folks.
Weekend Schedule
Here’s a selection of what’s on national T.V. this weekend as well as other intriguing match-ups. All times Eastern.
Friday
Bucks vs. Hornets in Paris!, 3, NBA TV
Clippers at Heat, 8, ESPN
Nuggets at Pelicans, 8, League Pass
Pacers at Warriors, 10:30, NBA TV
Saturday
Mavericks at Jazz, 5, League Pass
Lakers at Sixers, 8:30, ABC
Sunday
Rockets at Nuggets, 3:30, NBA TV
Raptors at Spurs, 4, League Pass
Celtics at Pelicans, 6, ESPN
Pacers at Blazers, 9, NBA TV
Links
Explosive story in The Athletic from Jovan Buha and Sam Amick on friction in the Clippers’ locker room over the preferential treatment Kawhi Leonard and Paul George receive. Everyone was prepared for drama from the Lakers’ side of the gym … but it’s actually the Clippers who are trying to give it to us!
Zach Lowe’s full All-Star picks.
Paul Flannery on the tragedy of Delonte West and how we can help each other. Gary Washburn writes that there’s still hope for Delonte.
Loved this Rob Mahoney joint on Trae Young’s All-Star case.
A lightning bolt of righteousness on the Kings’ foibles from Marcos Breton.
SPACE JAM 2 JERSEYS! (If you’re new to GMIB over the last month, please know that In This House, We Love Space Jam.)
The Wolves say they are not under any circumstances trading Karl-Anthony Towns.
Chris Barnewall with a hilarious history of NBA stars saying they love New York City and then not signing with the Knicks.
Ricky O’Donnell on the long list of NBA sons taking over college and high school basketball.
Ian Begley reports that the Knicks’ season began with a “playoff edict” that some players say poisoned the team culture from the start. But it’s fine, but the Knicks are now using the firm that helped rebrand the Nets. Is that firm also going to convince James Dolan to sell the team?
Kevin O’Connor writes that Kristaps Porzingis should perhaps be a third banana in Dallas.
Thanks for your support. Have a stellar weekend. Be excellent to each other.