A case for the Grizzlies

Memphis has the ingredients to compete for titles every year, starting now.

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

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The Calling of St. Matthew, Caravaggio, 1600

No matter how you cut it, the Memphis Grizzlies are not widely considered a top-tier title contender as we approach the 2022-23 NBA season.

DraftKings’ win totals have the over-under for Memphis at 48.5, behind eight other teams. The Grizzlies have just the 12th highest odds at DK to win the championship, behind the Celtics, Clippers, Warriors, Nets (?!), Bucks, Suns, Sixers, Lakers (?!?!), Nuggets, Heat and Mavericks.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies had the second-best record in the NBA last season, the No. 5 net rating, were one of just two teams in the league with a top-5 offense and defense and — something I feel is especially underrated — were the fourth youngest team in the NBA, according to Basketball-Reference. They lost in the conference semifinals to the eventual champions in a 6-game series in which their best player missed three of them.

Look at that recipe: a really young team with a great offense and great defense who got knocked out of the playoffs by the champs in difficult health circumstances. It’s a team not hamstrung by having gone all in to assemble the roster; in fact, no contender has more movable assets available should the need and opportunity arise.

I’m struggling to find a reason that the Grizzlies should not be in the very top tier of contenders with the Warriors, Celtics, Clippers and Bucks. I’m struggling to find a reason why we shouldn’t believe the Grizzlies are capable of winning it all.

Health could be a valid concern given that Jaren Jackson Jr. had surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot in early July. The timeline has him back on the court sometime between the beginning of November and the New Year. JJJ is the Grizzlies’ best defender (and one of the best young defensive bigs in the league). There’s no doubt that Memphis will miss him.

That said, the Grizzlies are deep and have weathered injury losses well in the past. Ja Morant, the team’s superstar offensive engine, missed 25 games last season. Dillon Brooks, the team’s No. 2 scorer, missed 50 games. Memphis finished with the second best record in the entire NBA. In 2020-21, JJJ played just 11 games as he dealt with injury recovery. Memphis made the playoffs with Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke playing in Jackson’s stead. Missing JJJ for somewhere between 10 and 35 games hurts, potentially a lot. But if any team has shown it can succeed in the face of an injury to a main character, it’s this one. Clarke in particular appears ready to stand in, and then play lots of minutes alongside JJJ once he’s healthy.

When a young team finishes with 56 wins, you might be inclined to argue they played above their heads. Does anything about what Memphis did last year feel fake, though? Does Ja Morant’s ascension to the top tier of NBA stardom feel fake?