3 takeaways from the 2022 NBA Draft, starring the Knicks' fantastic picks voyage
That was definitely a draft that has happened.
Good morning. Let’s basketball.
That was a … weird NBA Draft. Here are three takeaways.
1. Player movement is slow-building this year … or just slow.
The best player traded in the run-up to the NBA Draft this season was Jerami Grant, followed by Christian Wood, De’Anthony Melton and JaMychal Green. Not exactly an instant All-Star team of players. Of all the names batted around in the past couple weeks — John Collins, OG Anunoby, Harrison Barnes, even Russell Westbrook — none of the big pieces budged.
The Clippers would be expected to consolidate some roster slots to free up rotation minutes — didn’t move Luke Kennard, Marcus Morris or anyone. The Mavericks didn’t have a second step after the Wood move. The Kings stood pat with their roster for now, picking up someone they hope to be their wing of the future. The Pistons and Hornets were both active, but didn’t bring in any veterans who will likely play next season. The Blazers have only brought in Grant so far despite a mandate to build a roster around Damian Lillard. Melton was the only veteran who arrived at ANY of the Eastern Conference playoff teams.
It could be that the 2022 player movement cycle is going to be slow-building because there are some player decisions that will greatly affect the proceedings, and those decisions can’t happen until we get closer to July 1. Specifically, this refers to Kyrie Irving — there is a bunch of smoke and discourse around the future of the Nets right now, and that has enormous ramifications beyond Brooklyn — and Bradley Beal, who is rumored to be preparing to opt out of his contract. On Beal, as always: believe it when you see it.
Or it could be that the player movement cycle has a down year, and rosters stay relatively status quo through the summer and pick up during the 2022-23 season as the standings shake out.
I’d bet on the former, that we’re starting out with a whimper here on draft day but with hear a few bangs before July is out. The paradigm has shifted toward more frequent roster turnover, and there are enough combustible situations to lead to chain reactions. Plus, some of these contending teams have to think the championship race for next season is open. I don’t necessarily agree strongly with that sentiment, but I understand it.
All that spells more movement. Eventually.
2. The Paolo Banchero betting market situation should be a red flag for sports betting on non-competition matters.
Readers of GMIB know that I am not a betting markets dude. But I did perk up when I saw early Thursday that overnight the Vegas betting markets had shifted from having Jabari Smith Jr. as the favorite to go No. 1 in the draft to Orlando to having Paolo Banchero go No. 1. As the day wore on, reporting started to trickle out regarding Banchero being Orlando’s preference, and he was of course taken No. 1 eventually.
Some people made a lot of money betting Banchero late on Wednesday, before the lines moved. VSiN, a publication that focuses on sports betting markets, has a breakdown for what they believe happened: some smart bettors believed that the odds on Banchero were simply out of whack in recent days and weeks, so they made strong bets on him, people noticed and the action moved accordingly. That sounds plausible, especially to me, a non-expert in this area and someone who isn’t following the action day to day.
That said, with apparently nothing untoward happening here, given the importance of reporting and the old rumor mill in moving these markets, and given how many people control who will be the No. 1 pick (one, the Orlando Magic’s top basketball decision maker) and how many people control who else has that information (a small group limited to who the team’s top basketball decision maker elects to inform), this sector of the gambling market feels really prone to manipulation. And that’s before you get into the media implications and the immense additional pressure all this action puts on reporters to share what they know and to discern between competing information.
This is only an issue because the NBA (like other sports leagues) has embraced sports betting fully as a revenue generation machine. The league’s official partners are FanDuel and DraftKings; both books were taking action on the No. 1 pick odds in the run-up to the draft. In the run-up to the draft, you could find betting recommendations on the draft on the NBA’s very own website, produced by Action Network. And not to pick on that writer, but if you would have taken every bet (not lean) in that article and put $100 each on those 14 bets at the odds listed there, you’d be down $450 at the end of the day (betting $1,400 and making back $950).
It’s just an altogether uncomfortable, weird set-up, and the bizarre machinations of the Banchero-JSJ odd-shifting less than 24 hours before the draft is a stark reminder of that.
3. The Knicks are deeply confusing.
Speaking of bizarre machinations …
Okay. Alright. Here we go. Alright … just let me —. Alright. Here we go.
The Knicks came into the night with the No. 11 pick, a weird non-playoff roster and a purported desire to clear up some cap space to use on Jalen Brunson and hell maybe even Kyrie Irving.
First, the Knicks swapped No. 11 to the Thunder for three protected 2023 first-round picks. That’s really good value if you don’t love a player at No. 11 — while the picks next season are protected, those are assets you can move for players, in theory, over the next year.
Second, the Knicks got back into the lottery by trading for the No. 13 pick from the Hornets in exchange for the lowest projected 2023 first they had just picked up from OKC (the Denver pick) and four second-round picks. So to trade down two slots in the lottery this year, the Knicks went +2 future firsts and -4 future seconds. Okay. You know? That’s interesting and that’s good value.
Third, the Knicks traded that newly acquired No. 13 pick this year plus Kemba Walker to Detroit for a protected 2025 Bucks pick. So the Knicks are back out of this lottery completely, unload Kemba’s salary ($9 million next year) and pick up what you’d expect to be a low 2025 first.
In total, the Knicks traded the No. 11 pick this year and four future second round picks for $9 million in cap space, two protected 2023 firsts and a protected 2025 first.
Here’s the word on protections:
In total, sure. Why not? I think? New York ends up positive in draft assets overall (+2 in firsts and -4 in seconds — you take that in a vaccuum).
Where the confusion and consternation comes in is really in that last trade. You’re telling me that No. 11 pick in this very draft is so valuable it’s worth three future firsts — that’s what OKC (a team that strongly values the draft) paid for it. But then the No. 13 pick is only worth $9 million in cap space and a future low protected first? And you spent four future seconds and one of your 2023 firsts to get it?
Like I said, I’m confounded here. My feeling is that the Knicks ended up in a fine place. This is straight-up pick laundering, a favorite pastime of GMs of non-competitive teams. It’s just how the Knicks got there that has me really flustered.
We can look forward to the Knicks using those future picks to unload players that the Knicks front office has signed or will sign as free agents.
Scores
Fever 68, Wings 94 — Arike Ogunbowale: 24 points on 17 shots (six made threes), 6 assists, 5 steals, 1 turnover. BALLER. The Wings are .500 at the midway mark. They have never finished with a winning record since moving to Dallas in 2016. It’s time.
Mercury 88, Lynx 100 — Here come the Lynx! Minnesota sweeps a home-and-home with Phoenix, and now sits just a game behind the Mercury for No. 10 in the league at the halfway mark. Right now, the race for the playoffs looks pretty competitive. The Lynx and Fever started really slow but they are each no more than three games out of No. 8.
Mystics 71, Storm 85 — Shout out to Ezi Magbegor, the third-year Kiwi whose minutes have doubled as she maintains strong per-minute production and efficiency. Seattle always finds great role players to fit around their stars.
Sky 82, Sparks 59 — Candace Parker with her third career triple-double in 26 minutes despite shooting 4/14. L.A. concern level is high.
Schedule
All times Eastern.
FRIDAY
Liberty at Dream, 7:30, CBS Sports Network
SATURDAY
Mercury at Wings, 8, NBA TV
Sparks at Storm, 9, Facebook
Mystics at Aces, 10, NBA TV
SUNDAY
Sun at Dream, 3, Amazon Prime
Lynx at Sky, 6, CBS Sports Network
Be excellent to each other.